LoblawLawBlog

@MeadowCapital LOL Of course not Didn’t need the 10-K for that

$VKTX 10K out. No share repurchases done in 2025. $LLY $NVO

@Andre_AGTC It’s just going to get more expensive For the founders, it makes sense to sell now, take a victory lap, and leave the F4 upside to whoever pays up for it

$MDGL Wolfe research- F2-f3 potential underappreciated, F4 even more so Expensive but strategically make sense

@bioinvestor24 I know they just copied the Rez compound and made it a prodrug I know mgmt like to pump on early readouts, sell a ton of stock, and then repeat

@BlogLoblaw Besides this fact. What do u know about the drug ? I suggested mdgl people that I would sell at $600 and learn from my own mistake. But ..

I think descent chance we hear soon about $VKTX licensing 2809. CEO recently repeated BP interest.. The whole class value dramatically reduced after GLP1 class introduction to MASH management. But $MDGL good revenues and insurance coverage could have made one or more BP that have strong interest in liver / MASH drool ? Examples $RHHBY $GSK and even $NVO .. $LLy .. $BMY? $MRK also dropped their useless GLP1 Glucagon molecule

@ValueForAll1 $SGMT is $171M market cap They have initiatiated combos without any actual IP This will not end well for them

What could be fun: - Lilly buying $mdgl - Novo or Gilead buying $sgmt Somewhere around 2030: legal fight between big guys around resmeterom patents in context of combo MASH treatments.

$mdgl FWIW, a NASH payor KOL said that GLP-1s are actually not going to work very well, owing to cost and complications

$mdgl “we’re all in, this is best opportunity ever!” Meanwhile…severance packages extended from 12–>18 months for c-suite (excluding CEO) as of 2/18 (day before earnings) Makes you wonder, eh?

Last week $MDGL amended its license terms with Roche to have full control of the patent extensions, in exchange for Roche getting a better /non-declining royalty Reminded me of $AVXS tidying up the RegenX supply agreement prior to being acquired a few months later

@TomSar_7 @watermedhenry Yes, if you believe they really want to build it. But on the other hand, it’s just $150-200m spent on these licenses (“capital efficient”) means there is nothing holding back anything else

@watermedhenry Really nice analysis. Market is spooked over the 2.5billion fees $mdgl needs to pay for the GLP and DGAT inhibitors. This doesn’t include direct development and clinical trials cost. Sibold is doing the right thing for the long run but they need to ramp Rezdiffra sales fast

$MDGL impression: latest announcement about licensing-in $PFE's DGAT-2 inhibitor ervogastat with upfront $50m and no mentioning of potential maximum deal size triggered a significant fall of share price. It is possibly about less confidence of ervogastat that as monotherapy failed primary endpoint (i.e., proportion of patients achieving MASH resolution without fibrosis worsening and/or at least 1 stage fibrosis improvement without MASH worsening) in the Ph2 trial MIRNA targeting MSAH with F2-F3 fibrosis, but, succeeded in greater effects on MASH resolution without worsening of fibrosis than placebo group. On the other hand, ervogastat in combo with clesacostat not only achieved endpoint of the latter one above, but also the former one. About the safety profile, most common AEs were inadequate control of diabetes, diarrhea, headache, abdominal pain, etc., however, the greater incidence of not well controlled diabetes didn't happen in greater dose of ervogastat only, but the diarrhea, abdominal pain, constipation, etc. Dose reduction or temporary discontinuation due to AEs was much frequent in ervogastat alone with greater dose. Ervogastat-led gastrointestinal AEs may be attributable to irritation with inhibited pathway and matters accumulated. Also, patient receiving Rezdiffra also susceptible to gastrointestinal AEs, like diarrhea and nausea and constipation, and comes with greater rate of discontinuation due to AEs than placebo group, possibly related to sympathetic nervous system activated. Likely, Rezdiffra in combo with ervogastat may not cause serious system toxicity, but would the gastrointestinal adverse events become much severe and intolerable for patients? Back to the deal size, it is suspectable that deal size 10x to upfront, or even more. In Jul 2025, $MDGL closed a deal with China's CSPC with upfront $120m and potential deal size up to $2B, which is 17x. Therefore, the questions could be, would ervogastat generate sales >$500m to >$850m (10-17x $50m upfront) in lifecycle? what additional sales will ervogastat generate in combination with Rezdiffra? If lifecycle is 10 years, the suspected maximum deal size would be 5%-8.5% ($500-850m/10/$1B) of Company expectation of annual sales amount Rezdiffra going to reach someday in future - >$1B. About the deal with CSPC, the ceiling was $2B for a preclinical, oral GLP-1 agonist. $MDGL said the rationale for the deal is developing combination (again) with Rezdiffra MASH, to balance the weight loss with fibrosis and lipid reduction. Obviously, the deal size suggests $MDGL expecting this oral GLP-1 sales to exceed what Rezdiffrafor brings in. Together with oral GLP-1 that is well known for much common gastrointestinal events, and ervogastat, combination with Rezdiffra may be really a challenge to patient's gut. The latest market cap of $MDGL was $11.2B. Obviously, market expects more sales from Rezdiffra, far more than $1B, which is highly possible, given the 3Q25A sales was $287m only after launching for one and half year since Mar 2024. However, if with current approved indication Rezdiffra's peak sales climbs to $2B but not more, likely it only covers half of the market cap now. Likely, it is critical for $MDGL getting into market with higher population, maybe obesity?

@ValueForAll1 Your thesis is well researched but probably DOA

@ValueForAll1 At similar efficacy +/-, pretty sure most would choose the drug that doesn’t cause baldness

So they really want to block the DNL pathway as it's complimentary to THR-beta, but the only cheap asset was Pfizer abandoned DGAT-2 , so now they are trying to convince the market that this is better than FASN as a combo. Ok, good luck $mdgl

@SnackBioTech Nice N<10 in the P1!! Just waiting for the secondary and fade…

$MDGL oh no a new drug might be entering this space in 5 years. If only we had any evidence that first movers can continue to dominate as the field expands. Oh no. $ARWR $WVE

@Alpha_bro1 I assume this is a paid post?

$VKTX trading at 0.4% of Eli Lilly’s market cap, despite having a likely superior dual agonist compared with $LLY blockbuster tirzepatide. Even $GPCR trades higher. Pretty ridiculous, if you ask me.

@biopharmacaster @WallStSai Okay Rick, thanks for playing

@WallStSai That means nothing

$MDGL Becky and Paul both filed 13D forms with SEC last friday. 13D serves as transparent tool for markets, signaling potential takeover of company or activist moves. Both founder and former CEO couple own 7.8% stake each along with two board positions in Madrigal.

$mdgl nice fresh updated ownership disclosure from Paul and Becky on Friday, exactly 1 month before JPM Probably just a coincidence

@blakearaki @WallStSai Why do you think it’s a straddle?

@WallStSai Any idea why the December 2026 vol is the highest IV of any month in $MDGL? Don't think any f4 data would come by then and any of those straddles are a huge loser if the company gets bought out?

$MDGL Options IV is raising! Looks like $600 test will come today 🤞🏼

@drfager @WallStSai Yea the 1L consensus and the patent extension is new news brosef Probably goes there and then some before it gets acquired. The data is as good as GLP and the $akro so please tell me why is shouldn’t

@WallStSai i believe about a year ago there would've been a party if someone told you this company would deal out for $550-600...now are we talking about $1000?.... $MDGL

$MDGL Big Jan2026 600 Call Buyer for $800K

@SnackBioTech I personally believe that this is large asset managers engaging since the revenue has crossed the $1B run-rate But maybe it’s covering, we shall see

@SnackBioTech Suppose we’ll just look at the short interest, next update 11/30 Stock has had >100% moves in past with no change in SI

Sold covered calls for December on $MDGL. $12.31 per contract for a $640 strike. Unreal.

$mdgl Will this even last into January/JPM?