blake araki

@BlogLoblaw @WallStSai It's not a straddle that's trading, but the straddle gives you a measure of a delta neutral options position... so based on the straddle values it seems nearly impossible to make money owning Dec 26 options if they are hedged delta neutral

@blakearaki @WallStSai Why do you think it’s a straddle?

$MDGL Options IV is raising! Looks like $600 test will come today 🤞🏼

@mtheory11bio @MM3915038575333 Have seen a lot of people saying mid November, what is this based on, just 3 months after when the original pdufa should have fell?

@MM3915038575333 Probably 1st half of November

$BHVN is interesting because would the FDA say haha j/k in a CRL if troriluzole hit 9 pre-specified primary and secondary endpoints in the RWE study that the FDA helped design.

@Andre_AGTC Do you think the FDA announces a pdufa date or just makes a determination?

$BHVN Potential approval mid Nov I guess the stock is up bc of $REPL (NP), showing higher FDA flexibility

@seedy19tron You should consider selling some DEC 2026 upside calls... some of the highest IV across the term structure and if you hedge with a little stock you'd also make a lot of money if it gets bought out

I know some of you will be annoyed at this but $MDGL short on this, will explain in a deep dive over the weekend maybe combine that with the Weekly. Will explain the correlation and all the other factors where ample meat on the bone to make a good return shorting here.

@basadomente Yeah let's hope... somebody did a similar trade in Jan 2026 expiration a few months back 45k x

@blakearaki Yeah, which is why I said it’s most likely risk management. Sacrificing some upside for downside protection. I could be wrong though 🤷‍♂️

$SOC 🦖MMMM-MONSTER TRADE🦖 Others have covered this already but today around 2:17pm ET there was a 55,000 lot Nov 12.5p/35c risk reversal opened on $SOC. Concurrently, the dealer bought 2 mil shares in a block trade slightly below NBBO to flatten out their delta exposure. As much as I’d like to think this was a pure bullish insider bet, I suspect this may have been a risk mgmt trade by one of the large holders. (DMs open …) Either way this is fairly genius in my opinion as even in the event that Newsom nukes Sable next week I doubt it trades well below 12.50 by Nov, and if he doesn’t it almost certainly will be well above 35 by then. Limited downside while maintaining large upside. Oh and by the way if we get a binary event in the next two weeks that pumps the stock, the dealer has to buy a lot of shares. Let the gamma vortex begin …

@WallStSai Don't they also own a ton of warrants?

$MDGL Very rarely see Insiders Buy at all time highs. Definitely something Big is Cooking IMHO. BTW Baker Bros already owns 26% of the company. We shall see 🤞🏼

@diane_alter Have you heard anything more on this, deal spread and options indicating it could close by next Friday?

Amedisys $AMED & $UNH UnitedHealth announced 2 significant divestitures to address regulatory concerns related to their proposed $3.3bn #merger to BrightSprings and the Pennant Group. #DOJ

@blondesnmoney @sdogg011235 Ahh, so said another way the prefs only have a liquidation preference, they don't necessarily get redeemed if the common gets bought out?

@blakearaki @sdogg011235 They could take out some equity after the purchase and then cut the dividend to zero and attempt to buy it back at a bargain price

If Aquarian can’t finance this $BHF purchase, these prefs are going to 🚀🚀🚀

@JasonStrom84409 You have link to the zoom?

@Lipsman @PhilMickelson Would you guys mind sharing where you found the denial decision?

@PhilMickelson $SOC Disappointing to read that denial decision. Yes, Anderle completely ignores his own jurisdiction decision, but did Dintzer bring it up? I didn’t see it. It’s time to send Dintzer to the locker room. More to come in the morning.

All of this will still hold true but CA and Anderle continue to disregard the law and it’ll now be delayed a week or two. He doesn’t stay a CDO that he already said was out of the CCC jurisdiction but he said the paperwork wasn’t in on time. 😂This is comical now and further shows how pathetic CA legal system is. It won’t hold anything up and oil will flow freely very soon but what a joke. $SOC

@Sports_bios Awesome, thanks👍

@blakearaki 65-75 been my range for valuation work - stk is pretty shorted - so who knows - ..

So.. with the $IMVT readout thru - what's on the plate for the remaining wks of the quarter - .. to me - I have - $EWTX Cirrus-HCM 28 days - $ALNY PDUFA - the label - but I expect no surprises - $SLNO PDUFA - this is a big one - Y/N? - my inclination is a Y - given multiple chances for the FDA to say N - but no Y is a Y until all the papers are signed - .. IF Y, what then - "my nickname for them is tiny bird with no footprint - is there a hawk around somewhere waiting?" - $PFE Fate of Danuglipron - Y on continuation - 1) Straight into P3 2) mucking around w/ another dose finding P2b' with the new formulation or N - discontinuation - and THEN WHAT.. - then obviously outside my area - the $SWTX case - will it or won't it be taken before the qtr is over? Then onto Q2 - a VERY BUSY qtr - for some of the names I follow.. been a roller coaster sorta qtr - went up +8% - went down -3% - back to +4% - same ole same ole - but 2Q could be very volatile for my PnL w/ multiple events on the list for some of the bigger posns - .. so will see - .. up or down, don't matter much to me when my typical expense for the simple life I have now is significant less than a % of my PnL - .. no debts, no mortgages, just Dad's medical, my regular household spend etc - .. jmho..

@christankerfund Nice summary... i see a lot of discussion from others around buybacks, but I think the Golden Share is the reason they will/have not done this... buybacks accrete Israeli ownership which is a restrictive shareholder nobody has any leverage with

$ZIM Q4 Preview - Only 2 trading days left until $ZIM reports pre market Mar 12! - Consensus is $3.49 (IBKR shows $3.16) - ZIM will announce its year end Dividend true up - As with all their guidance, 2025 will likely be very sand bagged - Will they announce a share buyback for 2025? Not necessarily in my base case 1/7

@InvestyMan Interesting.... I think what most people are really trying to figure out is what rates are realized in the quarter... there clearly seems to be a lag with respect to pot rates vs realized rates for each quarter... maybe because spot is locked at booking which happens well before?

Just for whoever is interested how revenue is recognized with $ZIM

@J_M_G_B_ Would you expect similar revenue decline quarter over quarter for ZIM or are they more exposed to rate declines due to a higher percentage of spot exposure?

OOCL Q4 revenue was good but not brilliant ( $2.5 B, down~ $0.5 B sequentially mostly on lower rates) ; incidentally, they are a wholly owned subsidiary of COSCO. $ZIM

@seasidejoenews Other possibility could be extending Geno on a new cheaper deal... what kind of 2-3 year deal makes him attractive enough to keep? $15 mm per with 1-2 years guaranteed?

My mistake: It's $25 million. $10 million roster bonus (Seahawks are not paying this unless they plan to keep Geno) and $15 million salary. My $10 million mistake doesn't change his market at all, but that's an important clarification.

Why Geno Smith has little-to-no trade value thread: These are just my opinions, and things in the NFL change fast, but when you start looking through the number of openings, the teams that can afford it, and the teams that will automatically be out, you deduct to almost 0 teams.

@tradedollarnut @johnkmason You could also sell the underlying stock and sell a deep put one to one going into each dividend... this would be non taxable in an IRA and you would avoid paying the dividend tax to Israel and would maintain your original position in ZIM once the put is exercised against you