R.U.V.

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R.U.V.

R.U.V.

@HindsightCapLLP

CIO of Hindsight Capital LLP. Former Head of Research at Vomiting Camel Asset Management. Internship applicant at 10x DNA *Only here for shits and giggles*

가입일 Nisan 2023
108 팔로잉171 팔로워
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R.U.V.@HindsightCapLLP·
@evfcfaddict For you - minus 5% as of this morning (I expect a hug next time we meet🤗) What annoys me more is peak to through ytd of -10%. Of course horrible March, but then picks such a Novo, Grifols, Nintendo, Adyen have been massacred in February!
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Andy@evfcfaddict·
Miss those daily ytd performance updates from the high beta crew…
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R.U.V.@HindsightCapLLP·
Schwurbel, Schwurbel, Schwurbel - Bumsbude bleibt Bumsbude Nur shorten kann man Sie leider nicht #ParTec $JY0 "ParTec and BF exaQC Take Note of Largely Favorable but Dismissive First-Instance Ruling. A Pyrrhic Victory for NVIDIA?!" eqs-news.com/news/corporate…
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R.U.V.@HindsightCapLLP·
Still have not received any reply or DM from @NianticHelp with the event now mostly over!
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R.U.V.@HindsightCapLLP·
@NianticHelp Dear Niantic, I would need your help as I did not get access to a Primal Kyogre encounter after winning a remote raid in New Zealand. I DM‘ed you with more details
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R.U.V.@HindsightCapLLP·
@ReneSellmann Shutting down, paying out investors. Calling it a day and then starting a substack.
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Rene Sellmann@ReneSellmann·
What’s your theory? 👇🏻
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R.U.V.@HindsightCapLLP·
Carnival comes early this year! Very excited to listen to management and CCO Bullwinkel (Chief Clown Officer) and hear about the Rewe Pilot and the Ukrainian Soup Kitchens. Thank you @die_sdk #CircusSE $CA1
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Florian Weyand
Florian Weyand@WeyandWiwo·
Der #Kochroboter von #Circus, der seit mehr als einem Monat bei #Rewe in #Duesseldorf steht, gönnt sich seit mehreren Tagen eine Auszeit. Zwischenzeitlich wurde der #Roboter sogar von Trennwänden verdeckt. Laut Circus handelt es sich um "Software und Menü-Update". #A2YN35 #CA1
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R.U.V.@HindsightCapLLP·
@BillAckman That conclusion is based on a correlation over 30 day time frame? Is that a sufficient sample size? Where was that correlation over the last 6 or 12 month? YTD Bitcoin in USD: -10% YTD Fannie in USD: 177% Could share the details of your analysis - since you run a multi/BN fund?
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Bill Ackman
Bill Ackman@BillAckman·
I underestimated how much exposure Fannie and Freddie ("F2") have to crypto, not on balance sheet, but in their shareholder bases. Run a correlation between F2 and bitcoin and you will see what I mean. Forced liquidations and margin calls in crypto are leading to F2 share sales in the market. We don't own bitcoin, but clearly in the short term, we own a stock market proxy for bitcoin. In the short term, the technicals can overweigh the fundamentals. F2 are a case study of that phenomenon.
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R.U.V.@HindsightCapLLP·
@tbonecapital @CompoundingUp Got the same email - long only shows version in Japanese. Did you ask them about the English version?
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tbone@tbonecapital·
Toyo Keizai will be publishing the Japan Company Handbook in English again. Great news for all Japan investors. @CompoundingUp
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Boring_Business
Boring_Business@BoringBiz_·
Investment banking analysts showing their Hinge date what they do in their free time, other than work
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R.U.V.@HindsightCapLLP·
@DeFiTechGlobal So: i) How is this a return already today? ii) How can you book this in your FY financials? iii) Why do you have to hold to maturity, if you book the return already? iv) How likely is it for SOL to remain at US$167 (history)? v) Could you describe your definition of arbitrage?
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R.U.V.@HindsightCapLLP·
@DeFiTechGlobal ... state that "which is expected to be realized over three years if the trade is held to maturity and the SOL token price remains constant at approximately $167 per token."
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R.U.V.@HindsightCapLLP·
@frank_thelen Cool Story Bro! Warum sehe ich dann Tesla nicht mehr in deinen Teq / 10xDNA funds?
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Frank Thelen@frank_thelen·
Package approved ✅ Very happy shareholder :-)
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R.U.V.@HindsightCapLLP·
@evfcfaddict Well, if interest rates are 0% then people start to chase for yield. The mental arithmetic then becomes to pick a steady business with a growth runway and price it as a bond proxy. What spec. worried me about $DEO vs Others, was that this Growth and CF was fueled by FX and Debt.
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Andy@evfcfaddict·
Everytime I check $DEO ev/fcf after it went down another 5%, I scratch my head what people where thinking who bought near the top. I think we will have the same thought on other large caps in a few years.
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R.U.V.@HindsightCapLLP·
@NianticHelp Another raid day and another issue by getting kicked out during the raid - ie me having to restart the game and loosing the raid. Also no solution yet from the Mega Rayquaza problems
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Niantic Support
Niantic Support@NianticHelp·
#PikminBloom Players may have experienced frequent network errors and have difficulties connecting to the game server during 00:00 - 00:30 JST 11/01. Please note that this issue has now been fixed. We sincerely apologize for the inconvenience.
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R.U.V.@HindsightCapLLP·
@NianticHelp At least 5 remotes lost due to the bug, and only 2 remotes reimbursed —> and then no more replies/responses from you afterwards. Most dissatisfying support ever. Issues just constantly happen —> last weekend again (see pictures of crash during the raid)
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R.U.V.@HindsightCapLLP·
@supergraf 1) Handel special charges: i) FTC settlement in NA und ii) Severance costs. Ohne diese Kosten wäre NA Operating Margin bei 6.9% also 100bps gestiegen. International "wahrscheinlich" auch. 2) Ads wachsen 22% (organisch) 3) Capex - dann wird halt ein paar Jahre kaum investiert
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supergraf@supergraf·
Amazon boomt an der Börse, aber nach dem Blick unter die Haube habe ich dann doch viele Fragezeichen anhand der aktuellen Performance. Amazon setzt alles auf die KI-Karte und verliert im Handelsgeschäft sein gutes Händchen. 💣 Der gefeierte Q3-Gewinnsprung liegt zu 45% an der hohen Bewertung von Anthropic und kann im nächsten Quartal genau zum gegenteiligen Effekt führen. 💣 Der Umsatz im Handelssegment wächst, aber das Operating Income sinkt (prozentual und absolut). Das dürfte am massiven Wettbewerbsdruck aus Asien liegen. 💣 Der Free Cash Flow bricht ein, weil so viel Geld in Datencenter und Chips investiert wird. Was passiert, wenn in einer globalen Rezession die Kunden für diese Dienstleistungen wegbleiben? Wer stützt dann noch das KI-Kartenhaus? Das durfte ich gerade bei n-tv kommentieren und bin wahrscheinlich eine der wenigen kritischen Stimmen zur aktuellen Quartalsperformance. Die Google-News-Sektion ist geradezu euphorisch. Was meint ihr? Peak Amazon nun wirklich, oder geht die Reise noch weiter nach oben?
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R.U.V.@HindsightCapLLP·
@ToffCap What did you find? I still like the business reminds me of "Heads I Win, Tails I don't lose much"
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ToffCap@ToffCap·
Doing some work on Befesa $BFSA. Befesa faced quite a few headwinds over 2023, many of which should disappear and/or turn tailwinds over this year. Improved pricing will drive growth, and improving cost eficiencies (a.o. lower energy and treatment charges) will increasingly benefit margins. Synergy creation from the AZR acquisition should further help volume growth. Befesa is trading at ~10x 2024e ev/ebitda for (potentially) >20% ebitda growth over the next few years. Relatively high capex near term, but cash flow conversion should improve over the next few year. Will let you know what I find.
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