Julius Probst, PhD ๐ŸŒ

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Julius Probst, PhD ๐ŸŒ

Julius Probst, PhD ๐ŸŒ

@JuliusProbst

Senior economist @Appcast/Stepstone. PhD @LundUniversity. Stint @ECB. Macro/econ history wonk, blogger, wannabe stoic, chess hobbyist, Scifi nerd. Views my own.

London, England ๊ฐ€์ž…์ผ Kasฤฑm 2016
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Julius Probst, PhD ๐ŸŒ
Julius Probst, PhD ๐ŸŒ@JuliusProbstยท
The business cycle is (mostly) driven by fluctuations in NGDP. Nominal income is nothing more than velocity adjusted money (M*V). Itโ€™s the Central Bankโ€™s job to react to changes in M and V and therefore keep NGDP growing on a stable path. This is the most neutral monetary policy
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Judd Legum
Judd Legum@JuddLegumยท
The โ€œgoalโ€ of the Iran war is now reportedly to open the Strait of Hormuz, which was open before the war began
Judd Legum tweet media
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Tom Forth
Tom Forth@thomasforthยท
Gemini is more blunt than I am in explaining why. Brexit. As so often.
Tom Forth tweet media
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Tom Forth
Tom Forth@thomasforthยท
I learn that the UK has finally provided a post-Covid city-level productivity estimate for its cities to the OECD. (see France above us statsmogging us). I think this one should should be move past 2019 stats in some places.
Tom Forth tweet media
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Julius Probst, PhD ๐ŸŒ ๋ฆฌํŠธ์œ—ํ•จ
Hayden
Hayden@the_transit_guyยท
So you have a subway train that comes every 7 minutes and think that said service is better used to serve a literal field instead of homes for people?
Hayden tweet media
Neil Hudson@DrNeilHudson

๐ŸŒณ A proposal has been submitted for 150 houses in #TheydonBois on #GreenBelt. Green Belt protects the nature of our precious village. I will continue to do everything I can working with community groups & residents to oppose this development & to stand up for our community. ๐ŸŒณ

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Julius Probst, PhD ๐ŸŒ
Julius Probst, PhD ๐ŸŒ@JuliusProbstยท
@yieldsearcher @BoydBischke Money supply doesnโ€™t drive inflation in a zero rate environment. It is widely acknowledged, shown by tons of studies that monetary policy was way too loose in the 70s. Nominal wages donโ€™t increase of their own accord, was driven by high NGDP growth, a loose monetary/fiscal mix
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Mr. VIX
Mr. VIX@yieldsearcherยท
@BoydBischke Money supply alone does not create inflation (look at the QE era of the 2010s). Inflation requires transmission into the real economy via credit/fiscal expansion, or sustained wage growth that drives demand beyond supply.
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Mr. VIX
Mr. VIX@yieldsearcherยท
Why the 1970s oil shocks were stagflationary? Nominal wages rose 6-9% even with high UR (6-8%) during the era. Strong unions and COLA kept wages tracking inflation, creating a vicious cycle. We do not have that kind of labor market today. Wage growth is lowest since COVID.
Mr. VIX tweet media
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Mehdi Hasan
Mehdi Hasan@mehdirhasanยท
Iโ€™m sorry, but this is legit hilarious. If only he wasnโ€™t the president and just a character on TV. We could laugh our heads off without any sense of unease, dread, or embarrassment.
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Julius Probst, PhD ๐ŸŒ
Julius Probst, PhD ๐ŸŒ@JuliusProbstยท
@BenGrahamUK What if the people change their mind 10 years later ? Or 30 years later ? Many people in 20 years from now would not voted in the first referendum
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Tom Forth
Tom Forth@thomasforthยท
Here's a graph of GDP/capita for Great Britain at a distance from London. Scotland has long broken the pattern of "further from London the weaker your economy" and that has deepened in the last three decades. And no, it's not just oil, it's not even oil very much.
Tom Forth tweet media
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Julius Probst, PhD ๐ŸŒ
Julius Probst, PhD ๐ŸŒ@JuliusProbstยท
@xvrmdf @darioperkins Yep, given past 5 years, absolutely no household or business is expecting long run inflation to be anywhere close to the 2% target. But if you abandon now, transformation into Emerging Market is complete.
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Xavier MacDuff
Xavier MacDuff@xvrmdfยท
@JuliusProbst @darioperkins BoE is in a tough spot given how much the UK regulatory state has caused inflation and embedded its persistence into the economy.
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Dario Perkins
Dario Perkins@darioperkinsยท
The UK has managed to combine the weakest economy with the most hawkish central bank. Bound to end well
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Angelos James Malpe
Angelos James Malpe@angelos42195ยท
@EconomyComments @Goosey30111568 They are to blame as they discouraged development in the North Sea, because it didnโ€™t meet their net-zero mantra. Geo-political events will always happen, the key is to build resilience in the economy to manage these storms. Labour has removed this with all their socialism.
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Goosey
Goosey@Goosey30111568ยท
Diesel ยฃ1.71 per litre this morning. Labour has wrecked the UK
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Bob Elliott
Bob Elliott@BobEUnlimitedยท
Small Benefit to US from Rising Oil Prices While the US produces far more oil today than in past shocks, a study of โ€˜22 shows price rises are just accumulated as profits rather than spent on labor or capex, creating little economic lift. bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/small-benefiโ€ฆ
Bob Elliott tweet media
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Julius Probst, PhD ๐ŸŒ
Julius Probst, PhD ๐ŸŒ@JuliusProbstยท
@MaMoMVPY Agreed, this is a monetary policy disaster waiting to happen, neither ECB nor BOE will want to look through this supply shock after being above target for so long.
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@thomasforth @yieldsearcher @BoydBischke @NealGardner_ @BenGrahamUK @OfSymbols @elonmusk @BarackObama