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NK

@NKA793

Seasoned dev cutting through AI hype. Writing about tech, building, and what Silicon Valley won't say out loud. All opinions are my own.

가입일 Ağustos 2025
30 팔로잉28 팔로워
고정된 트윗
NK
NK@NKA793·
If I was organizing a tech team for the startup right now with a budget for three senior devs that's what I would do: * Hire two senior guys who know what they do for sure and arm them with all AI tools they need. * Find three juniors who are bright and promising and forbid them to use AI.
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NK@NKA793·
@edzitron Agree. That's a chance that labs will be have a chance to stay solvent.
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Ed Zitron
Ed Zitron@edzitron·
It’s actually bullish that it’s too expensive
Aaron Levie@levie

Token costs are becoming one of the hottest topics for any enterprise I talk with right now. It’s very bullish for AI in general because it means these systems are being used at a scale that wasn’t contemplated before. It also gives way to another form of differentiation that will emerge for the applied AI layer, which is model routing. As tokens take on a significant amount of the cost of any given workflow, then companies will inevitably want to ensure that their dollars go into the most efficient use of tokens for the particular job at hand. Frontier intelligence will always be relevant at the high end of tasks, like coding, legal and financial analysis, healthcare, and more. And dollars spent here will only go up over time. But, equally, you can peel off individual tasks to lower cost models (whether they’re from open weights vendors or the major labs) and deliver a more efficient end outcome. To do this effectively, the applied AI layer needs to understand the workflows in their domain better than anyone else, and be able to mix and match models to different jobs. If you’re doing document extraction, you need to know which models perform better or worse for any given document type. If you’re legal analysis, you want to know which models perform various types of tasks best. And so on. This will become one of the bigger differentiation points over time. The companies with the best evals, the best ability to route the workloads, and those that have business models directly aligned to customers financial goals, will be in a great position.

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NK@NKA793·
@nuel_flow it hasn't changed to be honest. we have just forgotten that the financial conditions can be bad and money can be expensive for a long time.
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Emmanuel Alao
Emmanuel Alao@nuel_flow·
Is job security in tech becoming an illusion?
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NK@NKA793·
@ktaJ0202 @shub0414 If it makes you feel better that someone can be held accountable for the bad code -- I am happy for you. For me there is no difference about it. Especially if I have to fix something in it.
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kaleab tesfaye
kaleab tesfaye@ktaJ0202·
@NKA793 @shub0414 I hate this take because it is a bit dishonest. The bad human-written code before AI had a person who wrote it who could be held accountable, and chances are the person who wrote it ends up maintaining it. AI doesn't have memory and doesn't have a persistent instance.........
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Shub
Shub@shub0414·
AI is pushing so much garbage code in production now that very soon they'll have to rehire more human than they laid off just to fix bugs created by AI and vibe coding.
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NK@NKA793·
@DenLoginoff My blind guess is that the ration of OSS code in Java to the whole OSS space is quite small. LLMs had no ability to weigh it enough. We have other complex and verbose languages (like Rust) where LLMs are quite good.
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Denis Loginoff ⚡️
Denis Loginoff ⚡️@DenLoginoff·
LLMs are so bad for Java! ..which is surprising, given how much Java code exists. Just goes to show they aren't really good at more complex and verbose languages, despite being statically-typed 🤔
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NK@NKA793·
@bsilone Please, look at the breakdown of added jobs. It is mainly leisure and hospitality due to the coming world cup. There are now opportunities created yet.
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NK@NKA793·
I see an economical reason for such behavior. But it does not make the situation better by any means. They do not want data center as an asset on their books and prefer to finance it through the SPV because they will have to build a new data center sooner than this one will become profitable (in 2-3 years). The old one will be "owned" by bond owners and will be at least barely profitable after being used by Google/Anthropic and others.
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Roger
Roger@rdd147·
Please think about the stupidity 🤦 $GOOG and Anthropic could each build a fully equipped data center for 5-10 years of operation… Instead they each chose to rent a date center for ONE YEAR at the same price. They are essentially paying 5-10x the cost with absolutely zero ability to depreciate and sell the assets. THESE THINGS DON’T HAPPEN $GOOG shareholders should run, because this is incredibly poor management of capital.
Roger@rdd147

As a large commercial real estate holder I want to 🚩this as near certainty fraud. I have never bought a $2 million property that I successfully rented out for $2.4 million a year. This is the type of fraud you announce, when you just don’t give a fck because its pensions set to lose everything and government to bail them out. $15 Billion / Year - Anthropic $11 Billion / Year - $GOOG $26 Billion / Year Deals xAI raised $35 Billion for Operations and Capex Hardware cited at 60% capital raise $21 Billion Hardware Bought and Rented at $26 Billion a year to Google and Anthrophic.

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NK@NKA793·
@TTrimoreau I always was more tired after reviewing the code than writing it. Now I am only reviewing it.
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Thomas Trimoreau
Thomas Trimoreau@TTrimoreau·
Anyone else found that working with AI agents is more mentally tiring than just doing the work yourself?
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NK@NKA793·
@alex_lrz_nmv Then count it as an investment and set a limit after which you will consider it a sunken cost. Anyway this model cost is a capex, not opex.
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Alex
Alex@alex_lrz_nmv·
@NKA793 Agree! This is the wise decision 😄 But what if your business is just starting 🤔
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Alex
Alex@alex_lrz_nmv·
Founders, would you still use AI to code If it cost more than your rent?
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NK@NKA793·
The further from reality we are, the harsher will be the path back. Highly likely you are right. I also had such beliefs about crypto liberty and now we are building the confidential payments for big banks to come onchain. That's a hypocrisy. The most boring scenario will execute as always. This time it is not different.
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Mo
Mo@atmoio·
Once the bubble pops, Anthropic and OpenAI will become the Coinbase and Block of the AI world. Mundane companies that ship narrative wrappers on mundane bytes. That the bubble will pop isn’t some apocalyptic doomsday prophecy. It’s not that complicated: AI is freakishly expensive to serve. If the returns on the other end are not justified, the bubble pops. And thus begins the decades long buildout to actually economically justifiable AI. It’s amusing how resistant reality is to our fictions and fantasies. In the peak of the crypto bubble we thought reality was going to be transformed into financial liberty and democratization for all, and network states and decentralized reserve currencies. Coinbase stood to be a multi-trillion dollar company and is now just a mundane tech startup. Today we spin similar narratives about the intellectual upheaval of AI, about the new democratization of intelligence and how everything will soon begin to orbit this new technology. At the end, Anthropic and OpenAI will be mundane IT providers with an insanely grim research outlook to make AI economically sensible and useful, no different from Google’s position in trying to make quantum commercially viable. Reality is, fortunately, pretty hardened against our delusions.
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NK@NKA793·
@NoahKingJr Transcribe an hour-long speech in a minute
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Noah
Noah@NoahKingJr·
Name something that AI can do that humans couldn’t
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NK@NKA793·
@JadeCole2112 I really hope they don't. It would be a GFC-style disaster. But this time government would be bailing out not the banks but the big techs which were "blessed" with low interest rate over the last years.
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NK@NKA793·
@paularambles You do not have wealth while it is on paper. We should see first how all this IPO book plays out. It may not go that smoothly.
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“paula”
“paula”@paularambles·
kinda crazy that anthropic and miri used to recruit from basically the same talent pool and now one cohort has generational wealth and the other lives in berkeley
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NK@NKA793·
@maxkolysh Exactly. AI is not a customer but a tool. It won't buy your services. Customers will.
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max
max@maxkolysh·
two YC teams i'm working with are pivoting. one is out talking to customers all day. the other is brainstorming with claude. you can probably guess which one is making more progress. the non-obvious ideas still come from being out in the world talking to real people.
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NK@NKA793·
@yarotheslav That's quite an average european salary in tech, isn't it?
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NK@NKA793·
You are right. But quantity of code does not correlate linearly (if correlates at all) with the speed up. It is an ephemeral effect. Quite often it comes not even because of the code but because of the processes being formalized and built in a better way after the software integration.
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Alien_AV
Alien_AV@Alien_AV·
@NKA793 @FakePsyho If you want to catalyze a lot of processes, you need a lot of catalyzer, right?
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NK@NKA793·
I prefer to look at the software dev product in a bit different. From my point of view we produce automatization and speed up for other processes. Like a catalyzer in chemistry. Code is just a tool for that. That's why I think more code is not always good. Only if it serves the purpose.
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Alien_AV
Alien_AV@Alien_AV·
In the end, code is all that the software dev produces. That's the way they influence the world. A perfect software engineer is not the one who creates zero code. So pushing out more code may be a signal of low-quality slop, or actually pushing out more value through more good code. Anthropic seems to think it's the latter. I have the same experience with my coding productivity, so it may well be true (especially considering the quality of personnel at Anthropic).
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NK
NK@NKA793·
@futurenomics Can we even define consciousness in a verifiable manner?
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Sam
Sam@futurenomics·
We were so busy debating whether AI is conscious that nobody stopped to ask if we were
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NK@NKA793·
@GiLgamesh111 @GergelyOrosz That's not a reason, that's a consequence and a trend at the same time. Last quarter they have shown weird paper profits that boosted their quarter and this quarter they are literally borrowing money. Seems suspicious.
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GIlgamesh
GIlgamesh@GiLgamesh111·
@NKA793 @GergelyOrosz I see, and do you think that's a reason to increase short term profits over long term quality?
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Gergely Orosz
Gergely Orosz@GergelyOrosz·
Everyone on Google’s Engineering Education team had been laid off very recently It suggests Google completely stops investing in this area… damn (Source is me: I confirmed with folks inside Google unfortunately this happened)
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