Tim Miller

@ChargerHunter …order.

What should i do...

@Hilbe This all seems reasonable to me.

📊 My R2 Q2 Estimates 📊 Pessimistic: 2,000 to 2,500 Realistic: 2,500 to 3,000 Optimistic: 3,000 to 3,500+ Explanation: Everyone keeps asking me "how many R2 are they making?". To me this means velocity, or how many units they make per day/week/month. We've seen ~1,000 VINs arriving at service centers. Assuming those units spent a few weeks in transit, they were produced near the start of the month of June. I will need to see a door jam label to confirm a "6/26" date to be certain. A few weeks prior we saw a 500 VIN QR code at the governors visit on May 19th. Based on these data points, let us assume they made 500 R2 in 2 weeks or 250/week. This number will continue to go up, but there are only 2 weeks left in June. Simple math without any increase in speed for the month of June you get to the below estimates. 6/1 - 1,000 6/15 - 1,500 6/30 - 2,000 (End of Q2) Assuming they increase velocity of the line you should see those numbers improve over the month of June. This is how I did my estimate - my very worst/base case they have 2,000 made by EOM. If they improve production to 300 to 400/week we see a more realistic number. If they put the pedal to the floor and hit no supply chain issues maybe they finish the quarter with over 3,000 R2 produced. What's your guess?

@RivianFanatic @Rivian @KevinMelnuk Yeah at this point I’m not sure what it will take for the price to hold. It seems like investors really only care if the company makes money. Once they’re profitable, the market will pay attention to HOW they’re profitable and will price the stock accordingly.

@ThMTim @Rivian @KevinMelnuk Q2 earnings call might not move the numbers enough. Sadly I feel it will take 2 years (2028) when you will see the stock POP and HOLD. Lately it pops but never holds. If miraculously we get Point-to-Point Supervised driving by EOY it might help.

.@Rivian R2 production and delivery ramp is going well. Reservation conversion rate seems high. Everyone loves R2. I haven’t heard anything significant about QC issues. Market is up. Someone explain this to me. @KevinMelnuk

@Hilbe @gdann27 I don’t want to quibble, but 2 months isn’t until next Monday (6/22). If they are DELIVERING 985, they have to be over 1000 produced. By Monday I’d guess they’ll be close to 1500, no? Seems like the ramp is going well.

@gdann27 Took them roughly 2 months to hit 1,000. Keep in mind it's hard to track performance since they are ramping up. This week should be different from the last.

VIN 985!

@KevinMelnuk @RivianTrackr @Hilbe @R1Stephanie I want Rivian to officially and publicly say it out loud so the stock does some hockey stick stuff.

Good news is with vins we can get a pretty good idea. We’ve heard do 1,460 vins, we’ve seen 1,000+ on the ground places, lots in the 500-1000 range at service centers. 100 stores x 2 = 200-300 at Rivian stores. We will see 2,000 vins popping up online sometime soon. 300-400 or so being built a week so we will have 2,000-2,500 by end of June.

Saw vin 904 on a half moon grey R2 after my demo drive today. Production is ramping! @Hilbe @KevinMelnuk @R1Stephanie

@R1Stephanie @RivianTrackr @Hilbe @KevinMelnuk ‘Twas fun. Kids LOVED it. Dad’s gotta come up with some $$$

@RivianTrackr @ThMTim @Hilbe @KevinMelnuk Hope the demo was fun! @ThMTim

@R1Stephanie @KevinMelnuk @RivianTrackr @Hilbe Wicked smaat

@ThMTim @KevinMelnuk @RivianTrackr @Hilbe I look at the vin (bottom( and manufacture month (top corner) on the plate and the vin. Same month 5/26 and about 383 to 713. Gives a data point on production numbers for R2.

@KevinMelnuk @RivianTrackr @Hilbe @R1Stephanie Agreed it would be stupid not to. And all the more reasons since it seems like it’s going well. But, as you’ve said, sometimes it seems like Rivian is its own worst enemy when they communicate. VERY conservative.

@ThMTim @RivianTrackr @Hilbe @R1Stephanie No required but 100000% R2 will be its own. They’d be stupid not to split it out. It’s all anyone cares about including them.

@KevinMelnuk @RivianTrackr @Hilbe @R1Stephanie Are they required to give numbers by model? I’m afraid they’re going to give overall numbers.

@ThMTim @RivianTrackr @Hilbe @R1Stephanie They have to legally and that’ll be 7/2

@RivianTrackr @Hilbe @KevinMelnuk @R1Stephanie I hope we get some real, specific production and delivery numbers at the end of Q2. Seems like it’s going well.

@ThMTim @Hilbe @KevinMelnuk @R1Stephanie Orlando has VINs over 1xxx now

I don’t have anything new to add about the @Rivian R2: it’s fantastic. I want one. I’m glad I own #RIVN.

Also had an employee who *seemed* like he knew what he was talking about insinuate that they have about 600,000 reservations. Who knows if that’s true, but sounded plausible/believable to me.

@R1Stephanie @Rivian Just checked and my email is the same. I suppose we’ll find out in the morning

Riddle me this Batman... First screenshot is the @Rivian webpage confirmation for an R2 demo drive. Second screenshot is the Rivian demo drive email confirmation....um.... What am I driving tomorrow?

@R1Stephanie @Rivian Hmmmm

Let’s go! @KevinMelnuk @R1Stephanie @Rivian

Well… that’s a start. @USMNT Press is SUFFOCATING

@R1Stephanie @Kanundrum17 I think @SnazzyLabs did the best job succinctly explaining the *potential* magic in these wheels. The possibilities with software is cool. I’m bullish that Rivian will refine and maximize a cool solution.

@Kanundrum17 It seemed very intuitive. Hopefully they can be more customizable over time? That'd be sweeet!

Its like learning to ride a bike, its not hard and intuitive once you get the hang of it!

@pjcombss @Hilbe Massaging seats are on your list for $58k…?

Test drove today. Great car! Pros: Quality Interiors, Space, Turn radius Cons: AC and Vented Seats are noisy. Air vents have to be directed via screen. One pedal driving cannot be turned off. No massaging seats. @Hilbe the speakers were great!