Tim
683 posts
Tim
@Tmxpy
Discretionary Futures Trading - taking educated bets over time
가입일 Eylül 2021
261 팔로잉103 팔로워
26th May 2026- Island Day Post Memorial Holiday Market Narrative — (May 26, 2026) #ES_F #marketprofile #volumeprofile
🟦 1. Context Going Into Today
All‑time highs into the long weekend, driven by optimism that a US–Iran deal was close.
Monday was an island day: gap‑up open, no gap fill, no extension beyond IB — classic “fragile optimism” structure.
Late Monday: US limited strikes on Iran, contradicting earlier diplomatic optimism and threatening the six‑day ceasefire.
This set up a binary, news‑sensitive open for today’s post‑holiday session.
🟧 2. Overnight Session: Gap Tested but Defended
Rebuttal of the peace‑deal narrative triggered a sell‑off into the prior gap zone.
Overnight low: 7525.25, stopping one tick above Friday’s gap at 7524.
Key read: buyers defended the gap — strong signal that the island structure remained intact.
This preservation of the gap was the first major tell that buyers were still in control despite geopolitical noise.
🟩 3. Regular Session Open: Failed Breakdown → Reversal
Opened in the lower third of the gap, immediately probing for a breakdown.
Look‑below failure: traded a quarter‑point under ON low but still couldn’t break 7524.
That failure at the key reference level triggered a reversal sequence.
Regained the open → shifted control back to buyers.
🟨 4. Mid‑Session: Push Higher, But Sellers Hold Yesterday’s Low
Reversal carried price back into yesterday’s low, but no acceptance above.
Sellers re‑engaged, leaving the session high at 7555.25.
This capped the upside and set the tone for a two‑sided, news‑driven day.
🟥 5. Structure: Neutral Day
Both sides of the IB were taken out → neutral day.
Reflects a market torn between AI‑driven risk appetite and Iran‑driven headline risk.
🟦 6. News Flow: Still Driving the Tape
Reversals gained traction on headlines that US–Iran negotiations were stalling.
Despite geopolitical volatility, AI sentiment remains the dominant underlying bid.
E‑period buyers stepped in again at Thursday’s VAH, reinforcing the idea that responsive buyers remain active at key references.
Narrative Summary
A market at all‑time highs came into the session with a fragile island‑day structure and a geopolitical narrative that flipped twice in 24 hours. Overnight sellers tested the prior gap but failed to close it, defending 7524 and setting up a reversal off the open. The session turned into a neutral day, with buyers and sellers both taking swings but neither gaining control. AI sentiment continues to underpin the bid, while Iran headlines remain the trigger for sharp intraday rotations.
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Author copies arrived.
The Art & Business of Professional Trading started as an attempt to explain what professional trading actually is beneath the mythology.
Seeing it in physical form is pretty surreal.
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FDAX puts enough food on the table for everyone every day. Every trading style, every trading phase, it caters for everyone!
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Haven't annotated a chart for a while. I said I'll explain yesterday's potential for a look below fail, wasn't an A plus set up but it still gave me 10 points in about 5 minutes. The right trade and the trade of the week was open test drive on Thurs post FED. Always easy to pick the right trade after the event. #ES_F
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So my gameplan is - scale in passively as long as the composite profile holds - playing for the daily pennant break and bounce. Not being delusional expecting explosive move and new highs but a bit of a short squeeze. Higher Low on daily and balance ISM profile offer good energy.
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This Christmas, I’m reminded by a visit to see the tree in the Great Hall of Windsor Castle, that true growth doesn’t happen alone—it flourishes through collaboration, shared vision, and the spirit of community.
To my followers and to the incredible X/twitter people I’ll name individually (if forgotten count yourself in), thank you for being part of this journey. Your support and energy have made 2025 a year of building bridges, sparking innovation, and achieving the impossible.
Wishing you all a Merry Christmas filled with warmth, joy, and inspiration—and a New Year where our renewed efforts shine even brighter. @MPX_Trader @theasymmetrist @MacroTactical @DoubleWideCap @jestertrading33 @HeidsterTrades @AxiaFutures @dampedspring @TradingLucid @BrettSimba @rocketbailey @DeItaone @LordSeanConnery @JimScalpert @MacroAlf @perfiliev @AH_AxiaFutures @LewPayne @ZigsOnTheBid @AaronRentfrew @NanaimoTrader @smashelito @Broda1995 @fleri_v @Deniz_Kiziltas
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@Trading_Balance @Markos_mom Especially breathwork can be a gamechanger. Its the only way we can influence our parasympatic nervous system
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From @Markos_mom it really resonated 🧠🔥No-one is immune to the "fight or flight" response, traders spiral into self-destruction because they fail to spot reactive patterns. I have compiled a small list of tips bellow for you to review. None will help unless you meaningfully change process. substack.com/home/post/p-17…
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@merrittblack Good question. I would say 10k DLL. IMO youre growing with your account balance so there is a lot of time and mental energy required in order to get to 50-100kDLL.
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What's your dream DLL you'd love to have on a desk.
Let's hear em.
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My entire crypto investing journey:
I first bought £80 worth of BTC in 2015 but not as an investment, I used it to buy a fake ID 🤦🏻♂️🤣
As I pursued a career in finance, crypto started to rise in popularity.
I was always against crypto, coming from a trad-fi background I thought it was fake internet money - a joke more than anything.
I even lectured in universities and told students why I believed it was made up nonsense.
But though I was staunchly against all things crypto… the performance was hard to ignore.
Then in 2020 we opened a position on our trading floor and the guy we ended up taking on was a crypto fan boy.
He convinced me over the next year that crypto was here to stay and worth at least a punt… so I took it. I began investing in summer 2021, accumulating that cycle’s top alts.
Polygon, XRP, BNB, LINK etc.
I bought high and averaged in as prices fell over the coming years.
In May 2022 I decided to buy stables to get yield. A crypto “expert” told me UST was the best at 20% APY… I invested every penny I had even selling my car to raise extra funds.
3 days later, LUNA/UST ecosystem collapsed. I managed to get 50% out but it hurt badly.
As prices across the board continued to fall I scraped together cash to buy the dip… but I didn’t have much left to bring my averages down significantly.
ETH dipped below $1k, BTC below 16k - I didn’t have enough cash to take serious advantage.
2023 the meme cycle happened, I’d make 10x in a day… then lose it all in a handful of rugs over the next week. I came out of the meme cycle down even more, burning cash.
Into 2024 I realised my alts were dinos that would never recover - I sold them all at a loss and picked up the top alts for this cycle (AI, RWA etc).
By the end of 2024 I was finally up, we got a rate cut, Trump won - I had a feeling I was about to get the bullrun I’d been waiting for and I was just happy I’d got positioned in time making that key rotation.
Of course, I was wrong. 2025 led to lower prices, and obviously I DCA’d as we went lower.
By summer, I was max allocated. Prices have continued to fall and now I’m just in HODL mode.
I no longer have any emotion or feeling towards the crypto markets. They have taken a pound of flesh over and over again.
The hilarious part about all of this is that if I knew then what I know now, I’d have waited and bought 30 BTC at 16k and be sitting with $3.5 million today with zero stress.
Instead I went all in on alts over and over again never realising any substantial gains.
To date, I’m about BE (I only buy spot).
Going forward, once I’m out of my alts I will be BTC and ETH only.
I believe there will be a decent alt season, but if there isn’t I am beyond caring at this point.
My key takeaways that I would share:
> Day/swing trade FX/Equities on prop firms.
> Spot buy BTC and ETH every day, add chunks on large dips over the bear market.
> HODL
> Exit 75% over bullrun
> Repeat
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Is it possible to "time the market" and enter just as a surge of buying/selling is hitting the tape?
Yes, it absolutely is.
Here's an example from a spot trade taken earlier today (yes, yes.. I do trade spot, too). I had a limit order set at a level where I expected a surge of buying to hit the tape. And indeed, it did.
I follow a very strict hierarchy when I'm trading spot:
1) Identify my key level (this is where my map comes into play, as well as profiling distinct price legs & looking very closely at the 5-day rolling profile)
2) Pull up the DOM and footprint (or t&S chart if you prefer, but footprint is so much better...)
3) Look for signs of absorption/exhaustion. In this case, I was looking for signs that sellers were running out of steam or unable to break through stacks of passive buyers
4) Final / situationally optional step depending on the setup: look for the tape to pick up speed and identify stacked imbalances in the direction you want to trade.
Don't make the mistake of ALWAYS looking at time & sales / footprint / DOM. You'll hallucinate faster than Chat-GPT...
Only look at your tactical tools when it comes time to really plan your trade idea and put it into practice.
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