Dueling Kitties

A small thank you to everyone using Claude: We’re doubling usage outside our peak hours for the next two weeks.

Putting aside regulatory bottlenecks, I think it's likely you can build a dyson sphere and strong nanotechnology within 5 years of ASI. Conditional on having both of these, I think there are strong options for solving death quickly. I'm not saying the only or main route here requires a dyson sphere (strong nanotech seems probably required?), but it seems like this level of industrial capacity helps a lot. E.g., with dyson sphere level compute and massive application of cognitive labor I think it's not hard to simulate what you need. If nothing else, uploads seem pretty doable and can be demonstrated at small scale first. Maybe you mean something like "there will be a cure to death but the FDA won't allow it in the US"? I'm skeptical this will be a blocker; people will find a way.

On Khamenei: We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death. That is what we did here. I know some of you disagree and prefer that we list these markets without a death carveout because it keeps the rules simple and because many traditional markets, like oil futures, can be proxy markets for war and death. But we believe that’s different than having a market directly settling on someone’s death, which is not allowed for US regulated entities. What’s the point of the market, then? A market on Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader was important because leadership changes in Iran have major impact on the world order: • geopolitical implications • economic consequences • national security considerations • oil and commodity prices, many of which move based on news and expectations around this outcome And it’s always possible for a ruler to step down or transition power without death, even in autocracies. It just happened in Venezuela. In these instances, we make the caveat clear in the rules and in the market page, but today is a good learning that we can do more in terms of improving the UX and adding more ways to surface the rules. We are committed to improving. In the meantime, here’s what we’re going to do: • We are reimbursing all fees from this market • If you have a position from before Khamenei died, you will be paid out on the last-traded price before his death. (This was clear in our rules) • If you have a position from after he died, we’re going to fully reimburse your cost of entry

Peter Thiel on who is most likely to lose their jobs to AI: "It seems much worse for the math people than the word people.”

The greatest contribution of Alyssa liu wouldn't be the gold medal or the countless pledges of loyalty but the fact that she made JoyMaxxing cool again. Imagine someone so happy on the skating rink. Does it really matter if they win a gold at all?

Gemini 3 Deep Think is getting a significant upgrade. We’ve refined Deep Think in close partnership with scientists and researchers to tackle tough, real-world challenges. And it’s pushing the frontier across the most challenging benchmarks, achieving an unprecedented 84.6% on ARC-AGI-2. It also sets a new standard on Humanity’s Last Exam - 48.4% without tools.

When they finally crack nuclear fusion, how will they convert that energy into electricity? Don’t tell me it’s just gonna be boiling water again…

I am introducing a bill that prohibits the injection, release, or dispersion of chemicals or substances into the atmosphere for the express purpose of altering weather, temperature, climate, or sunlight intensity. It will be a felony offense. I have been researching weather modification and working with the legislative counsel for months writing this bill. It will be similar to Florida’s Senate Bill 56. We must end the dangerous and deadly practice of weather modification and geoengineering.