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Asking it again 90 days later:
Which country has the worst economic outlook?
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Centrist Reform Alliance Youth Party Chair
13.1K posts
Centrist Reform Alliance Youth Party Chair
@corncobanalysis
Immune from confirmation bias because I’ve never had it
Blurst of Times 가입일 Ekim 2016
335 팔로잉1.6K 팔로워
Virginians in general love to vote
HT
Falls Church City repeatedly has the most eager-to-vote Democrats in the entire country.
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Centrist Reform Alliance Youth Party Chair 리트윗함
Centrist Reform Alliance Youth Party Chair 리트윗함
The final mail ballots were added for Virginia’s HD-98
Margin narrowed to 19% GOP win
Still a GOP over performance compared to 2024
About 5% so not as dramatic as Election Night
Disproportionate late mail bc of shorter early voting for special
Handful of provisionals remain
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Centrist Reform Alliance Youth Party Chair 리트윗함
@erichol59443359 @VoteHub Even if they got another 30 provisional votes, this would still be pitiful turnout
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@corncobanalysis @VoteHub What % of Northwestern students are Illinois residents? Also, if you same day register are the votes counted as ED or provisional? Virginia campuses had a ton of provisional votes that were added well after ED because they were same day register.
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27 votes for this Northwestern precinct is insanely bad turnout.
(thanks @VoteHub for the quick interactive map)
Ryan McComb@bayes_pr
A big skew for Kat on @NorthwesternU campus. the rest of the lakefront in Evanston is quite partial for Daniel.
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Finally Siena can be famous for something that isn’t operated by the New York Times
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@DashKostka @VoteHub Looks like Texas Dem Primary was 46% of Harris' votes in 2024 (already bad Dem turnout in 2024), this Evanston precinct was only 10% of Harris' votes for IL-09
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@corncobanalysis @VoteHub Yeah, I just meant that for a campus of 50,000 students, 1,100 votes might look low
But that’s only 1 of 6 student precincts
Turnout was about 6,500 in the core student areas, about 27% turnout
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This precinct had 207 Harris voters! They were all asleep, apparently!
Centrist Reform Alliance Youth Party Chair@corncobanalysis
27 votes for this Northwestern precinct is insanely bad turnout. (thanks @VoteHub for the quick interactive map)
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@DashKostka @VoteHub well...all they had to do was beat 27 votes, Northwestern might be the worst campus turnout you'll see this year
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@corncobanalysis @VoteHub To be fair, students at UT are split up amongst 6 precincts
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@Ericrse37986 This is not always the case, I don't know why but some campaigns go viral in youth circles and others don't.
Zohran got preposterous levels of youth turnout and persuasion
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I think progressives need to stop trying to get high turnout in college areas in primaries because college students rarely ever vote at all.
Centrist Reform Alliance Youth Party Chair@corncobanalysis
27 votes for this Northwestern precinct is insanely bad turnout. (thanks @VoteHub for the quick interactive map)
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@xenocryptsite I highly doubt there was less understaffing in the 80s and 90s, people are letting TikTok nostalgia get to them. Immigration was lower and percentage of population was half of what is now.
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Well again the claim is that there was less under-staffing in like the 80s and 90s, I think.
x.com/i/status/20346…
nws@NeastWS
@xenocryptsite as a share of private employment, it's 4% below the Feb 2020 peak, back down to 2014 levels it was steadily growing from 2000-2017 then flattened, post COVID recovery was quick, basically flattened in mid 2022
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This is interesting but logically, if you think there's "widespread under-staffing" despite the prime-age employment rate being near historic highs, then you need to reallocate the "missing workers" from somewhere else (or have an even higher employment rate, longer hours...).
Robin Kaiser-Schatzlein@robinsreport
1/ As I reported my book, I noticed something that has completely changed American life: widespread chronic under-staffing. It leads to, among other things, deadly medication errors at pharmacies, flight delays, messy stores, and the crime wave. From me today @TheProspect
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Centrist Reform Alliance Youth Party Chair 리트윗함
fwiw, in isolation you’d have said 80%+ TO in D counties would be great
But in context it’s about whether you think R areas will really cast 130% of total 2025 votes
My guess is that it’ll be something in between, less blue than 2025 but still clearly Harris-voting electorate
Chaz Nuttycombe@ChazNuttycombe
Chesterfield's now counted their mail so far. And it's not a good sign for DEMs. Lot of heavy R localities are over 100% of their same-day-equivalent mail count. Unlike 2025, Loudoun early vote looks good for DEMs though.
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@souljagoyteller They're keeping Pezeshkian around because he's STEM
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Raja only did really well in the richer areas that were in his district, as soon as you got to Waukegan he stopped getting anything substantial. And then he lost Cook overall by double-digits
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2022 Republican Illinois Governor primary votes: 797K
2026: tracking toward 610K
With Darren Bailey leading the ballot both times!
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@demsocsean Trone will end up with a much better %age, at least
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@corncobanalysis what about Trone lol (and I predicted Raja would be Trone 2.0)
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Raja may have the worst $$$ spent to votes moved in this decade, he spent all that money and stayed at his 33% polling for the entire race
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