Graham Lawlor

1.9K posts

Graham Lawlor

Graham Lawlor

@generationg

Gentleman Economist

Beacon, NY 가입일 Aralık 2008
876 팔로잉1.1K 팔로워
Graham Lawlor
Graham Lawlor@generationg·
@elonmusk @PeterDiamandis I don’t get it. If the humanoid form was superior then why do we have so many profitable and essential non-humanoid robots (drones, manufacturing, cooking, cleaning, security). If you really believed, your self driving cars would just have an Optimus driver in the front seat
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Peter H. Diamandis, MD
Peter H. Diamandis, MD@PeterDiamandis·
If you’re downplaying the humanoid robot economy, you’re making the same mistake some people made about the internet in 1993. The infrastructure is being built right before your eyes.
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Graham Lawlor
Graham Lawlor@generationg·
@DavidSacks Public utilities will be competing against data center power generation for fuel, equipment, staff, regulators, inspectors, permits, etc etc. All of this is a single national (or global) market. Residential consumers will feel it inevitably
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David Sacks
David Sacks@DavidSacks·
Today President Trump obtained a pledge from America’s leading tech companies that new data centers would not increase electricity prices for residential consumers. These companies (including Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle, and xAI) signed the “Ratepayer Protection Pledge” under which they agree to cover the costs of all new power generation required for their data centers, ensuring such costs are not passed onto American households. This is a much better approach to affordability than Bernie Sanders’ total ban on new data centers, which would halt the construction boom currently driving wage growth and job growth for blue-collar workers. In fact, the Ratepayer Protection Pledge will lower electricity prices when AI companies pay for grid upgrades and sell their excess power back to the grid. Since the beginning of his second term, President Trump has championed the idea of letting our leading AI companies become power companies, and now this idea is becoming a reality thanks to his leadership and the commitments of these strong American companies. The right approach to data centers is not to stop progress altogether, but rather to protect residential rate payers from price increases, while making it easier to stand up new power generation.
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Graham Lawlor
Graham Lawlor@generationg·
@chamath When was the last time the US achieved 4.5% annual growth?
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
Chinese growth is falling off a cliff. The CCP just announced its official growth target of between 4.5% and 5%. This is the lowest growth in China in 30 years. At the same time, with Venezuela and Iran off the chess board wrt energy supply, they are increasingly challenged in getting the atoms they need to sustain themselves. It makes for a very constrained set of decisions over these next few years, especially wrt Taiwan.
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David Scott Patterson
David Scott Patterson@davidpattersonx·
Some people say now is your last chance to get rich before all work disappears. It’s not true. We will all be rich. And everything you have saved will have been a waste of time. Your million-dollar house will be worth $10,000. The price of everything will drop by 99%. That means your universal high income (UHI) will be worth 100 times an average salary today. Your savings will mean nothing, and we will all be rich.
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@jason
@jason@Jason·
@jgebbia This is truly insane When it was happening, the statistics being reported didn’t even make sense to me! I believe in immigration, but we need a points based system that only allows immigrants who are a net positive for America
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Mila Joy
Mila Joy@Milajoy·
When I was growing up in the 1970s and 1980s no one saw color. We were all just Americans. Why did that change?
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Graham Lawlor
Graham Lawlor@generationg·
@ianbremmer @gzeromedia I think when you reference odds like this you should mention polymarket/kalshi contract prices. Wherever your odds differ you should also place a bet
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ian bremmer
ian bremmer@ianbremmer·
odds of us strikes on iran? well above 50%. that’s where stalled negotiations and visible military buildup lead. @gzeromedia
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Graham Lawlor
Graham Lawlor@generationg·
@elonmusk Somehow I would have guessed we’d see an even larger gap
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Dr. Clayton Forrester
Dr. Clayton Forrester@DrClaytonForre1·
College was always meant for the top 10% of the population in terms of IQ. That's why it was prestigious and improved a person's lifetime earnings. But that was long ago. College today has degenerated into a grift, conning students and parents into believing that just getting a degree from any college will confer these advantages. It doesn't. There's a huge shakeout coming in high education.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

The US college underemployment rate is at crisis levels: The underemployment rate for recent college graduates is up to 42.5%, the highest since the 2020 pandemic peak. This means nearly half of all recent graduates are working jobs that do not require a college degree. The rate also matches the levels seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis. Furthermore, 52.0% of all college graduates are underemployed upon initial entry into the labor market. Even 10 years after graduation, 45.0% of college graduates remain underemployed. Criminal justice majors have the highest underemployment rate at 67.2%, followed by performing arts at 62.3%, medical technicians at 57.9%, liberal arts at 56.5%, and anthropology at 55.9%. Americans are paying more than ever for a degree that no longer guarantees the career it promises.

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Graham Lawlor
Graham Lawlor@generationg·
@cboyack Can you post the list of “every other system” you are working from?
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Connor Boyack 📚
Connor Boyack 📚@cboyack·
The free market is the only system where you get rich by making other people's lives better. Every other system requires someone to lose.
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Peter H. Diamandis, MD
Peter H. Diamandis, MD@PeterDiamandis·
I'll repeat it again, we're not facing a lack of resources, but a lack of resourcefulness.
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Elon Musk
Elon Musk@elonmusk·
@BassonBrain It will get really nutty when Starship is launching every hour in 3 years
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Brian Basson
Brian Basson@BassonBrain·
Total domination by SpaceX! 🚀 Let this sink in: 7 of 9 upcoming worldwide orbital rocket launches will be a Falcon 9. 🫡 Feb. 19: Falcon 9 from Florida Feb. 20: Falcon 9 from California Feb. 21: Falcon 9 from Florida Feb. 23: Falcon 9 from California Feb. 24: Falcon 9 from Florida Feb. 25: Kairos from Japan Feb. 27: Falcon 9 from California Feb. 27: Falcon 9 from Florida Feb. 28: Alpha from California @elonmusk @SpaceX
Brian Basson tweet media
Elon Musk@elonmusk

SpaceX

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Graham Lawlor
Graham Lawlor@generationg·
@theallinpod @Jason Wouldn’t you predict this will drive up prices in construction? Wouldn’t this exacerbate the “housing crisis” / “cost of living crisis”? Couldn’t you just as easily say it’s all those pesky homeowners & renters that are “causing the problems” through their demand for homes?
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The All-In Podcast
The All-In Podcast@theallinpod·
J-Cal’s Simple Immigration Fix: Fine the Business Owners, Stop the Incentive to Come @Jason: “The people causing this problem are the business owners.” “They are providing the incentive to come here.” “This is actually what Steven Miller should do, because this would go after the people who are causing the immigration problem.” “We can solve almost all of the immigration issues, with the exception of maybe criminal gangs, just by doing basic surveillance and asking these businesses to show the pay stubs of the people working for them, and ICE has been doing this.” “You pick the #1 employer of illegal aliens, 2.5 million people working construction.” “You start with the largest construction sites, and then you work backwards.” “Then you start with the largest restaurants and hotel chains and work backwards.” “According to this LA Times survey, 75% of immigrants come here for better job opportunities.” “People coming to America illegally are coming here for economic reasons. They're not coming here to commit crimes. They're not coming here to get benefits.” “That is way down the list. That is a small percentage.”
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Graham Lawlor
Graham Lawlor@generationg·
@paulg @cremieuxrecueil But the people are there for the opportunity. The human capital and the financial capital are one endogenous system. It’s been growing in SF for a long time, but can also reverse. Look at Detroit
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Paul Graham
Paul Graham@paulg·
@cremieuxrecueil The fundamental thing is the people. Startup expertise is concentrated in the Bay Area. The funding follows from that.
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Graham Lawlor
Graham Lawlor@generationg·
@elonmusk Yeah but PPP is not appropriate in that context. By market exchange rates, the US economy is much bigger. It does highlight the importance of consumer prices in comparing welfare. And why tariffs are so destructive to it
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Graham Lawlor
Graham Lawlor@generationg·
@paulg @J3FFR0G3RS Now you’ll have to identify the most charismatic candidate in every future election (before the election) to test your hypothesis
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Paul Graham
Paul Graham@paulg·
Arguably the White House correspondents got us Trump. If they'd reported Biden's decline earlier, the other Democrats would have pushed him not to run, and there would have been an opportunity for a more charismatic candidate than Kamala Harris to arise.
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The All-In Podcast
The All-In Podcast@theallinpod·
🚨 An All-Time Episode: The Great Tariff Debate 🤝 featuring: -- @Jason -- @chamath -- @DavidSacks -- @LHSummers -- @ezraklein (@friedberg is off this week!) (0:00) bestie intros! (0:58) reacting to trump targeting china and postponing all other reciprocal tariffs (21:21) measures for success of tariffs, debating the impact of letting china into the wto (46:14) is the us being exploited on trade? was free trade a mistake? (1:02:01) recession chances, how the trump administration gathers information (1:19:39) future of the democratic party, abundance agenda, doge (1:51:00) the besties recap the debate and chamath recaps the breakthrough prize ceremony
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탐색

@elonmusk @PeterDiamandis @Jason @POTUS @Sec_Noem @DavidSacks @chamath @davidpattersonx