Your Forecaster Extraordinaire

@PaulFeldstein @paulsperry_ a brit was offended. good to know.

@paulsperry_ I'm Jewish. I was offended.

FYI: Margaret Brennan's husband is a Muslim who served in the US military. He thinks Sharia law is democratic. Seriously. Now you know why Brennan wrote this snarky tweet about SecDef Hegseth "invok[ing] Jesus' name." Her husband was no doubt offended. Now you also know Brennan's POV/agenda on CBS's "Face the Nation"

@Nickhasdoubts @Boneszns @pureMetatron You do not have a right to go the bathroom anywhere you want. Sorry dude. You don't have a right to shop wherever you want. Sorry dude. Property owners decide that because it's their property and their right. What you want is a dictatorship.

@Boneszns @pureMetatron You know that's wrong. I know that's wrong. So why are you performing here today?

What is the meaning of the phrase "trans rights are human rights?" Don't trans people already have rights by virtue of being human like everyone else? What other right do they want that we don't already have as humans? Why the need for this slogan?

@Jet_Jaguar_Win @TristinHopper I try to imagine how weak and ignorant you have to be to believe this is even remotely possible.

@TristinHopper I don’t hate Jews. I simply hate that some of them wish to enslave everyone and that they are succeeding.

Does the Torah have anything in it about why Jew hate makes people so fucking stupid? It's worse than huffing gas.

@TristinHopper They were already stupid but smart enough to want a reason.

@GrumpyMoe @Capnthomas1 I've seen you losers abilities and a guillotine is way outside that

@Capnthomas1 @lindgrenowitz No interest in winning people over if they UwU millionaires

I have lived in Washington my entire life and I am ready to pack my shit and move to Florida. I live in the Skagit Valley but Seattle really affects my peace of mind. I'll never make a million dollars a year but that millionaire tax is the last straw. Am I doing that right???

@GrumpyMoe Got it you are a sponger

@lindgrenowitz People simping for millionaires are fucking morons

@AlshhranyS58897 @punting_machine @RepFine 1 million Muslim deaths at the hands of other Muslims in the last ten years. No religion even comes close.

So your argument is basically: “Some violence happens in Nigeria, therefore Muslims should fear Muslims everywhere.” That’s an interesting standard. By that logic, if someone visits the U.S. and witnesses a school shooting, should they conclude that Christians should fear Christians? Or if someone looks at sectarian violence in Europe’s past, should they conclude that followers of Christianity should fear other Christians? Of course not. What you’re describing in Nigeria is regional conflict involving politics, militias, terrorism, poverty, and ethnic tensions. Reducing all of that to “Muslims are the problem” is not analysis it’s just a convenient shortcut. Groups like Boko Haram have killed far more Muslims than anyone else. In fact, many of their primary victims are Muslim communities who reject their ideology. So if anything, Nigerian Muslims themselves are often the first victims of those extremists. Blaming 2 billion Muslims for the actions of violent groups in one region of one country isn’t a serious argument. It’s just a stereotype wearing the costume of an argument.

Racism is when you discriminate against another race. It is bad. Sexism is when you discriminate against another sex. It is also bad. Antisemitism is when you discriminate against Jews. Again, bad. I could give ten more examples. So why did Muslims not create a similar word thst is bad? Why is their "bad" word Islamophobia? Which, when you break it down into it's component parts, isn't about discriminating against Muslims, but is about fearing them? And then stating that that fear is irrational and unacceptable. The word was created as a weapon, to conflate stopping discrimination (which is a good thing) with stopping criticism (which is not). Because under Sharia law, which is fundamental to Islam, criticizing Islam is a crime. In some Sharia-compliant countries, it is punishable by death. Even with all the actual violence around us, we must remember we are also in a rhetorical war over the contours of speech in this country. And I was built for that fight.

@stevemur Portland Oregon. They made commercial real estate affordable for everyone. Drastically rescued barrier to starting a business downtown. Gnereted thousand os jobs in the homeless industrial complex. Plus a booming narcotics ecosystem.

What are everyone's favorite examples of a city, state or country aggressively taxing its way into affordability?

@BasedGymEnjoyer @HuskyFanPodBDTW It's worked out great for oregon just look at downtown Portland real estate prices.

@HuskyFanPodBDTW And what will you say when Seattle becomes a top 3 city in the country in a decade? Doubt you will ever admit you were wrong

Washington’s lack of income tax has always been a huge advantage — the reason some co's chose Seattle over CA, NYC, or Boston. The 2nd & 3rd order effects of losing that edge could be devastating. Entire ecosystems rely on tech. This move is totally braindead & short sighted.

@FoamOnTheRunway I am far from an expert but the number I saw was up to a trillion a year goes to private equity portfolio companies from private credit. GFC MBS was around a trillion also.

@lindgrenowitz Private credit does not typically provide loans to private equity. Private equity finances leveraged buyouts through the bank syndicated loan and high yield markets. So private equity is a separate issue, and I agree with you that it is a problem.

People, this is not GFC 2.0. Private credit is like 5% of GDP, levered maybe 2x, and not on household balance sheets. Mortgages were half of GDP, levered 10x at banks, and the biggest asset on household balance sheets.

@botorious0 @kosherronin haha. he could have the most perfect proof and you still will live in your made up world where the Jews are the reason for you being a loser.

@kosherronin Yeah bombing all those hospitals schools and innocent people really must have helped the birth rate skyrocket, wheres your proof ? This shitty ass meme ? 😂

I had to climb one meter into a lamppost to get to this ⬇️ sticker today. While ripping it off, a big man of about 45 years looked at me suspiciously. "I'm just removing some hate propaganda," I explained, as I climbed down. He didn't look happy. "You and I are ... (1/3)

@SteadyRollingX @DowdEdward Deflation= possibly less jobs and possibly jobs pay less. Yet every single person that has dollars can buy more. Net effect is positive for vast majority of people and especially for low income people. Inflation= small number of people benefit at expense of every single person.

What the Fed is likely to do is pause sighting oil shock. They should cut but they won’t. Their inaction will accelerate the credit contraction already in process. Also this is not like the 70’s. We had a demographic tail wind from the boomers with wages rising. This time we have declining demographics and no wage pressure. This will be cost push inflation which will ultimately result in demand destruction and deflation. Eventually the US bond market will figure this out as GDP growth expectations reset lower and then rates will plummet.

@great_martis Negative Nellie's never get optimism or wives that look like Melania

Plan A: ❌ Plan B: ❌ Plan C 👇🤡🎪. 😂😂😂😂

@goyslopsucker @scotthortonshow 30k slaughtered moms,dads, brothers, sisters. The religion of peace.

@scotthortonshow Oy Vey, Iranians want to be free and love Israel. So much so they sacrificed 150 children.

It’s terrifying to think that they might really be that stupid.

@marginofdanger @BillAckman they should have skipped the due diligence and just checked with your CEO buddy. seems to really know the numbers.

$HHH I spoke with an insurance team CEO yesterday who told me that @BillAckman overpaid for Vantage by $400-500mm and that its combined ratio was pretty high for rather benign market conditions. And, Ackman is also responding to AI women on X. Meanwhile the stock is now below the $66 threshold that was used as the base for Pershing Square's incentive fees. The guy seems like he's on some sort of life tilt and feels pressures to IPO Pershing Square right now. The best thing that Ackman could do with $HHH (unfortunately can't undo Vantage buy) would be to initiate a dividend because otherwise this is a boring company that will behave with the volatility of owning a zero coupon bond on margin.

@TheKingScxottyD @dsonoiki I am sure you do imagine that.

@dsonoiki I imagine the proof we’re looking for is in the files not released that contain cp, death, murder, fraud… you know the ones they’re not gonna release because it’s a threat to national security

I can explain you want to be sitting down for this there isn’t “ample proof” there actually isn’t any proof at all that’s how

Let’s see how the $HIMS shorts are doing.. day 3 into the BIG squeeze.. Short interest actually increased to ~85M shares (~41% of the float) meaning some are still doubling down while days-to-cover sits near ~1.4. shorts are likely pitching the short thesis to new sellers to help absorb their exits.. What I see happening next is volatility and waves of covering, older shorts slowly exit while new ones try to fade the move, which can keep the squeeze alive for several more days if the stock holds its levels.

@traderhc TLT will be driven by structural shift. The short end is coming down based on employment data. Once the spread widens between short and long term doesn't make a bit of difference to a massive amount of wealth that needs/wants stable yield. Going to be a rocky few months though.

We're cooking. Bonds just sold off on a clean inflation print. Read that again. CPI came in benign. The 10Y still rose to 4.18%. When good news can't push yields down, the problem isn't inflation. It's term premium. The market wants more compensation to hold long-duration government debt. $TLT breaking below its lower Bollinger Band on a day that should have been bullish for bonds is technically ugly. I think it sees lower this week. Meanwhile $IWM is diverging hard from mega-caps. Down while $QQQ is green. Small caps need lower long rates to breathe, and the bond market just said no. Next Wednesday's FOMC is the real test. The question isn't whether the Fed cuts. It's whether the long end comes down even if they do. What's your read on the long end here?