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What if the “affordability problem” is just Progressivism?
stevemurch.com/say-it-with-me…
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stevemur
76.7K posts
stevemur
@stevemur
entrepreneur, preference for data. msft/expe/startups. harvard, stanford, cmu. mba, mscs (ai), applied math
Seattle Katılım Nisan 2008
1.4K Takip Edilen9.6K Takipçiler
2023: “West Coast Progressives, It’s Time To Show Your Work”
stevemurch.com/west-coast-pro…
Wall Street Apes@WallStreetApes
The fall of Portland, Oregon Here are major retailers that left Portland over declining conditions due to Democrat policies from 2022–2026 - Nike Community Factory Store (Operated since 1984, 40 years) Closed permanently because of 276 shoplifting reports in one year. They cited deteriorating public safety. Nike sent a letter to the mayor citing conditions - Walmart (Both Portland Locations) 580 employees laid off - Target (Three Stores) Reason: Explicitly cited organized retail crime and shoplifting - REI Reason: Highest break-in rate in two decades; over $800,000 spent on extra security in 2022 (including multiple incidents, one with a vehicle through the doors on Black Friday) - U.S. Bank (U.S. Bancorp Tower) Announced it would not renew its long-term lease Building Sale: Sold in July 2025 for $45 million (down from $372 million in 2015 — ~88% value decline). - Wells Fargo Announced plans to exit Portland - Starbucks Closed at least 5–6 Portland locations in September 2025 alone. - Nordstrom Rack (Downtown) - CVS Pharmacy (SW Broadway) Reason: Employee cited shoplifting as a factor Malls Major Retail Centers also closed Pioneer Place Mall: Once had roughly 100 stores. It’s now down to 20. Described as a “dead mall.” • Lloyd Center Mall: Confirmed for full demolition. Now 90% vacant PacWest Center: Sold October 2025 for $55.7 million (down from $170 million in 2016. That’s a 67% drop) - Montgomery Park: Sold August 2024 for $33 million (down from $255 million in 2019, that’s a 87% drop)
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You could not infer that he was talking about alcohol? Do you seriously think he was telling people that all restaurants require ID on every single visit? Or is it more likely that he meant “hey, most restaurants ask to see ID when you order a drink, so why is it such a problem to require one when we vote?” What’s the more likely guess as to what he meant?
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@JohnSmi41925514 @EWErickson He absolutely said an incredibly stupid thing about this, which is why everyone is correctly mocking him for it, and only JohnBunchofNumbers accounts are trying to defend him.
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My local Taco Mac makes everyone show their ID before ordering a beer. It's a wings and taco place, not a strip club. Does this person not live in the real world?
Catherine Rampell@crampell
A friend asks: “Has it occurred to anyone that the MAGAs think you have to show IDs at restaurants because they’ve been eating all their meals at strip clubs? This isn’t even an unreasonable theory”
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@AmyOtto8 @MichaelAArouet Like most outcome discrepancies, I’m sure it has multiple explainers.
Do you think the rise of social media has contributed to a sense of fear, both real and imagined?
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@stevemur @MichaelAArouet If you make women feel safe, you’d be surprised how they’d respond. My theory is this drift is driven by fear.
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That's an interesting chart. Young men have stayed similarly conservative for over 25 years, while young women have drifted much further left.
Why such a divergence? What has changed for young women that hasn't changed for young men?
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@Susan_Dupres @realbillbruch @JimWalshLD19 @JDVance @PNWForestKing that's fine! We humans make mistakes all the time; it's good to correct them.
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@stevemur @realbillbruch @JimWalshLD19 @JDVance @PNWForestKing I promise to re-read your post. It's really hard for me sometimes because I mix things up in my head when I am reading.
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Numbers in context: About 14% of Washington State residents who received taxpayer-funded SNAP benefits in 2024 (i.e., about 117,000 people) were non-citizens. The average SNAP expense for taxpayers is about $2,250 per year, so that's $263 million in 2024, more than a quarter of a billion dollars.
Look. Good people can disagree on what's good policy, but we should at least know the numbers. And the actual number is a lot more than zero, which we've heard a lot of politicians claim.
Shiloh Marx@Shilohmarx
Washington reported 86,915 non-citizens receiving SNAP benefits. @SecRollins
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No, it’s not a top 5 problem. That’s not my criteria for posting.
Affordability IS a top 5 problem, as is fraud. And this is a sub-point of each of these two.
I do think this topic is something that is regularly lied about or deliberately obfuscated. Maybe top 10 on that front, maybe not.
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@galenward @loganb Balancing these two things is tricky. Personally, I think time limiting the benefit is the compassionate middle ground.
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Logan’s denominator included all people in WA, and didn’t factor in the new parallel state program (FAP) which is growing very rapidly, nor did it include the ancillary benefits SNAP participation triggers (eg subsidized daycare, broadband etc), nor did it account for the fact that only 53% of taxpayers are net federal taxpayers. Nor does it contend with the magnet effect.
When you add it up, it’s quite likely in the ballpark of $400-800 per net federal income taxpayer per year of benefits, or thereabouts. It’s certainly not $0, and it’s one of many Progressive initiative making “affordability” worse. Perhaps it’s worth it, but to some, that’s a lot of money.
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@galenward @loganb And the majority of noncitizens receiving SNAP benefits in WA are not kids, fwiw.
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Yes for sure, good people can disagree on this issue.
Do you think there should be any limits on this?
Now that SNAP has been limited at the federal level (eg, with work requirements), should our state program have any kind of limits, or requirements of any kind? What should be done to limit fraud, anything?
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Btw @loganb, Grok estimates that there are about 3 million NET federal income taxpayers in Washington State (ie, not population, but overall net “who is paying federal income tax.”)
Ballpark, that foots with a guesstimate starting with WA population, for future denominators.
Here, it would mean that those 3 million of us are paying about $87 per year of our taxes to fund noncitizen SNAP benefits, not counting ancillary benefits tied to SNAP eligibility nor parallel WA state run programs. Not trying to prolong the argument or even angry about it; was just curious about the stat.
There are about 3 million NET federal income taxpayers in the state of WA.
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@Susan_Dupres @realbillbruch @JimWalshLD19 @JDVance @PNWForestKing No problem! I just don’t want casual readers to get the wrong info. It’s a complex and controversial topic that the media and politicians really don’t make clear.
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@stevemur @realbillbruch @JimWalshLD19 @JDVance I apologize Mr. Mur. I am a little bit dyslexic. I will re-read your post. Thank you.
@PNWForestKing
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@seattleiscrazy Yes AND I was wrong in my first characterization about it being federal only — WA spun up a state funded program, “Food Assistance Program” and is accelerating the handouts in the wake of the SNAP restrictions at the federal level. See updated thread offshoot above. Thx
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@stevemur I’m sure we agree or are close and my bigger point is how everything is being managed. Why are trying to obscure the numbers? What are they hiding? Of course the reality the government bloated workforce is the problem. Should layoff 25% and you’d have $ to pay for essentials
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@Susan_Dupres @realbillbruch @JimWalshLD19 @JDVance Again, respectfully, no. That’s wrong. Please re-read the original post.
OF the Washingtonians who received federal SNAP benefits in 2024, 86% were citizens of the US and 14% were not.
There is a parallel WA state program, (“FAP”) which isn’t included in these numbers.
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@stevemur @realbillbruch WASHINGTON STATE
Okay. I must have misunderstood you.
So, 14% of the non-citizens in Washington State receive SNAP benefits, excluding U.S. citizens.
That seems like a large number.
@JimWalshLD19
@JDVance
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And then of course, far from all WA residents pay federal income taxes, so $35 per person per year is a bit deceptive, from an actual taxpayer’s perspective.
If we remove those under 18, and then apply the federal stat that about 47% of all federal income tax filers owe nothing — then it’s getting well past $100 per taxpayer per year, not counting associated benefits triggered.
Likely on the order of $200-400 per year in benefits all in, if you add in the WA specific program and benefits triggered by SNAP eligibility.
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Additional context -- Washington State expanded its state-specific "Food Assistance Program" when the "one big beautiful bill" limited federal assistance... so WA residents now pay for a parallel program to pick up where SNAP eligibility has been curtailed. So add that to the $35/resident per year as well.
I'm just coming up to speed on what is spent on food assistance in WA and its cascading impacts... so forgive the learning-and-updating-while-posting.
See the mini-thread here:
x.com/TurnSeattleRed…
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@RandyTreibel It’s more than a quarter billion dollars spent per year, not including the rapidly growing WA state specific parallel program. What’s your Venmo? :-)
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@Susan_Dupres @realbillbruch No, that’s not correct. 14% of the people receiving SNAP in WA in 2024 — are noncitizens, not 14% of Washingtonians.
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Washington State
Why is 14% of the total population of Washington State receiving SNAP benefits??
That number seems a little astronomical.
8.1 million people X. 14 = 1,134,000 people receiving SNAP benefits
When my husband was unemployed for 13 MONTHS during the pandemic years in Washington State, we relied on the generosity of the food bank. We also cut back on eating to one meal per day. We trained ourselves for hard times.
@JimWalshLD19
@JDVance
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@benmaritz @loganb Do borders matter? Why do we even have an immigration process?
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@stevemur We’re a considerably wealthier than Japan or France, so I don’t really find a comparison there intuitive without an explanation about how it doesn’t make us poor like them.
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If you look at the major social upheavals since the advent of social media, whether it be "stay home, stay safe", MeToo, BLM, or what-have-you... the choice has often been between Belonging and (sometimes uncomfortable) Truth.
Large-scale cross-cultural studies of the Big Five personality traits consistently show women scoring higher than men on Agreeableness. Agreeableness is reliably linked to motives for social harmony, cooperation, and avoidance of interpersonal conflict. These are traits that can amplify responsiveness to group norms and belonging cues.
These differences emerge reliably across dozens of nations and are not artifacts of self-report bias alone.
For some reason, it's doubleplus-ungood to point this out, but this is simply what the evidence (replicated, peer reviewed) suggests.
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC31…
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Social media has been a major influencer.
Emotional dynamics on social media boost empathy-driven, left-leaning values through social approval.
And it's now far easier to stay at the surface level of what one might "think" is a virtuous position (i.e., which would grant approval by others) without having to consider second or third-order effects.
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