Pierce Smith - Cosmopolitan Chud

@mattyglesias If a fat effeminate midwit partisan hack is calling me a “loser,” I’ll take that as a compliment

Not that this stuff doesn't contain some elements of truth, but I notice that conservatives have gotten unhealthily obsessed with various efforts to pathologize and psychoanalyze why people disagree with them — all this "luxury beliefs" stuff blah blah. It's loser shit.

Something that breaks my heart as a Millennial is how fucking optimistic and fun our teenage years and 20s were. Like we envisioned a TOTALLY different world from the one that we've got and insanely divorced from what Gen-Z are experiencing. Its hard to put in words how fantastic we thought life was gonna be and how it seemed like we were making tangible social progress. We've had all of that ripped away from us.

@TheLaurenChen The same people who vote on Kalshi are buying stocks

Everyone's saying a housing crash is coming. Consumer sentiment is in the garbage. Yet odds of a recession are declining and stocks are up. Am I missing something?

@TMTLongShort “Data is only as useful as the framework it fits into” 💯💪🏻🤌🏻

The reason why I listen to an inordinate amount of podcasts instead of having AI just condense datapoints is because what I find most valuable is being able to deconstruct people’s mental frameworks and then insert my own datapoints through them later on. My day job is filled with max density of datapoints. It’s all I do. Countless research reports, news headlines, transcripts and filings. But data is only as useful as the framework it fits into. And I also have to solve for my brains tendency to tune out if sufficient dopamine isn’t being generated. So I digest the slop. And with enough reps and a creative mind you can extract a lot more than you think. But it’s mostly the meta. If you want pure datapoints you are far better off reading a semianalysis substack from top to bottom.

@yieldsearcher Treasury’s War!

The US now warning paying tolls to Iran can now be subject to seizure by the US naval blockade. (ie paying tolls to Iran is now useless since the US can now seize the oil tankers).

@zTimSavage I’m afraid you’re correct. I still support the Trump Administration, but it’s getting harder. If I wanted to be lied to this blatantly, I’d still vote Democrat!

My portfolio is riding the upswing... This move in equities is the most egregious market manipulation in history, as the administration is outright propping up stocks. The modern free market economy is coming to its end. So sad to watch. You don't get rising equities amidst declining GDP, high inflation, skyrocketing oil, BOJ tightening, and war. They either think the general public are fools or that nobody will do anything because number go up. Combined with the obvious insider trading, disappearance of leadership morality, and cultural grift - a sickening recipe for the fourth turning.

@LibertyLeverage The passive investing free lunch has been such a banquet! But every banquet has its end

To be long stocks now, you have to believe nothing matters anymore. Valuations, concentration, household allocation, labor, the biggest energy shock in history, ect. It’s all worthless. And it seems that’s exactly what people think. Congratulation geniuses 🩸

@TheMichaelEvery Reverse-Perestroika Hypothesis for the win! I think your R-P hypothesis and Konrad’s Hormuz Hypothesis are the best lenses to view this War.

@KeenanPeachy @fleming_benn Projection is one of the key defense mechanisms for narcissists.

It's funny how in the end the bitterest clinger of them all was Obama himself.

@peruvian_bull How many millions have these central planners immiserated over the past 35 years? Japan is going on four lost decades because the BOJ is addicted to dishonesty

This is the problem. BoJ is currently sitting at 0.75% while the Fed is near 3.75%. that 300bp spread is basically a neon sign telling every carry trader on the planet to keep selling yen. three members of the BoJ board voted to hike at last week's meeting, the biggest internal split under Ueda's governorship, and the yen still made new lows the next day. the energy shock makes it worse, because Japan imports 90% of its oil, mostly through Hormuz, and every yen that weakens raises the domestic cost of crude, which feeds inflation, which pressures the BoJ to hike, which it won't do fast enough to matter. so they intervene and spend the reserves, get a 500 pip reversal, and buy themselves maybe a few weeks before the carry trade flows grind it right back. it happened in 2024. it's happening again.

@triggerpod Gynofascism is both portmanteau and neologism of the week! Maybe the month

Adam Carolla on Gynofascism – Why Nobody's Talking About It

@ObviousRises @saustin_moco Also speaks to the Cluster B connection, as virtually all theorists of narcissism since Freud have viewed it as a state of emotional arrested development

I had a realization about Leftists, their behavior/beliefs and "morality" all mirror Child Psychology. "Rich people bad" = Its unfair Tommy has more toys. By extension "Open borders" = Everyone should get the same number of cookies. Or "Gerrymandering is bad" = Its okay when I hit you but not when you hit me. And "I'll protest (riot) and attack" = Toddler throwing a temper tantrum. Its actually incredible how much you can boil down Leftist logic to: "What would a toddler think and feel?" (And than choose that.) It even explains why they (the child) demands big government (mommy and daddy) to make everything fair for them—they are psychologically (and often physically) dependent. These are people never mentally matured passed childhood.

@AutismCapital Too busy having their economy ruined by the central planners at the Bank of Japan. Four lost decades due to central banker malfeasance would sap the spirit of any people

Genuinely shocked Japanese X hasn’t picked up on the JPM sex scandal story yet. They would go NUTS for this story. Their entire culture is sexually repressed salaryman and power dynamics. The memes that would come out of Japan would put us to shame. How are they not on this? 😂

Have you ever tried ATG? I’ve been loving the deficit trap bar deadlifts but taking the weight pretty easy relative to this! Good work man, but nice to switch it up. I’d highly recommend some backward treadmill work for cardio. The inertia in the track makes it hard to sustain a good pace. Strengthen your lower limb tendons and musculature and lose weight doing it.

After several weeks suffering that stupid cold, I just deadlifted 5x375lbs followed by 1x390lbs Felt good I didn't take a video, but here's me doing 405lbs earlier this year These will be my last heavy lifts for a while For the next 3 months, the focus will be trimming down Let me know if you want to join me -- misery loves company!

@phl43 @clairlemon Probably assumes too much intellectual honesty and cognitive capacity among the portion of the population swayed by these sorts of narratives. The psyops will continue until morale deteriorates further Smdh

It's pretty remarkable how, within maybe 4-5 years, we went from a quasi-millenarist environment of fear about climate change premised on the idea that we were just a few years away from the end of the world to a situation where almost nobody talks or gives a shit about it anymore. There may be a lesson here about the dangers of hyping a risk, which I think might soon become relevant to discussions about AI, because although the apocalyptic cult that developed about the risk posed by climate change was ridiculous, it's not as if the problem had magically disappeared either.

@LukeGromen Ah, after reading some other comments, it’s a slippage issue? Is the $14T in cash and T bills, or is it in longer dated sovereigns? If longer dated, the slippage costs could be excruciating for UAE and with massive externalities

"Invert...always invert." -Charlie Munger For example, w/ $14T in USD deposits offshore, why would the UAE (or any nation) ever need a USD swap line? If a guy w/a $14B bank deposit needed a home equity line just to pay his bills, what would that say about that guy & that bank?

But if they’re illiquid how could they extend you the HELOC in the first place? Each time you draw on it, they wouldn’t have funds to provide you. I think this analogy breaks down under scrutiny. You may very well be correct, but I don’t think this is your most persuasive argument

@MSMjabberwocky You have $14b in the bank. You have a need for cash. Yet you go to the bank for a HELOC. Why would you do that? Either your $14b is already committed against debt elsewhere, or your bank is illiquid (committed your funds to something that is illiquid or insolvent.)

@LukeGromen @MSMjabberwocky Because I want to have a mortgage for tax purposes. Taking this hypothetical at face value, I think the tax advantages of debt on a primary residence could be plausible enough. Silicon Valley was famous for billionaires with 1% mortgages.

Fairly decent caricature of a Harlem accent. Oftentimes a Northeasterner can sound like he has a speech impediment but that’s just his accent. Very common among people from New Hampshire and CT in my experience. I’ll do a double take: “No he doesn’t have a speech impediment, he’s just from New Hampshire!”

The way he made Jeffries sound mentally retarded sent me