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Originally wrote this “for subscribers” - but seeing as no one subscribed 😅 .
My thoughts / analysis on the current state of Bitcoin.
Sure I’ll get flamed for this, but here it goes.
𝙁𝙞𝙧𝙨𝙩, 𝙖 𝙙𝙞𝙨𝙘𝙪𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙤𝙣 𝙇𝙏𝙁 (𝙡𝙤𝙬-𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙚 𝙛𝙧𝙖𝙢𝙚).
Bitcoin took out three critical liquidity levels in just a few weeks:
- low $80s, prior support
- $75k, Saylor cost basis
- $60k, HTF liquidity
Now at $67,500, the top crypto asset:
- is between two liquidity pools, ~$66.2k and ~$74.7k
- is between two CME gaps, ~$33k and ~ $83k
- left a daily/weekly wick behind at ~$59.8k
𝙉𝙤𝙬, 𝙖 𝙙𝙞𝙨𝙘𝙪𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙤𝙣 𝙃𝙏𝙁 (𝙝𝙞𝙜𝙝-𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙚 𝙛𝙧𝙖𝙢𝙚).
From a cycle perspective (last halving April 2024):
- curr. top 530d post-halving (2016 525, 2020 549)
- at 662d, -45% from top (2016 -53%, 2020 -43%)
- implies -70% bottom (2016 -84%, 2020 -77%)
- 9/25 - 10/30 this year (2016 889d, 2020 924d)
- implies ~$40k bitcoin bottom this cycle
- next bitcoin halving is expected April 2028
From a fundamental perspective
- MSTR goes negative equity at <$15k Bitcoin
- institutional ownership ~15% (2016 ~1%, 2020 ~3%)
- GENIUS act legitimizes stablecoin usage in the US
- Clarity act imminent, ground rules for digital assets
- US equities / commodities at ATHs (btc beta 0.5)
- US mid-term years avg -15% markets correction
𝙎𝙤 𝙬𝙝𝙚𝙧𝙚 𝙙𝙤𝙚𝙨 𝘽𝙞𝙩𝙘𝙤𝙞𝙣 𝙜𝙤 𝙣𝙚𝙭𝙩?
Short-term (<2 months): it’s possible we range between $60k-$80k, taking out both sides of liquidity. This would address liquidity above, and filling the imbalance wick below.
Longer-term (>2 months): The natural move for Bitcoin will follow prior cycle price action & timing, barring any fundamental catalyst altering this path. Potential for a short-term correction in equities / commodities support this path.
This means a drawdown to sub $50k bitcoin, bottoming out sometime in September / October of this year (2026).
There is no doubt the ~85% of Bitcoin retail holder are currently driving price to follow a similar pattern as prior cycles. Rather than muting the impacts, institutional ownership has compounded it by being large net sellers the past two weeks as of Feb 14th (~26k btc or ~$1.8b of net outflows).
Potential catalysts that could change the trajectory:
- US Clarity act (will it have any material impact LTF?)
- Material monetary stimulus to address affordability (eg QE, rate cuts, stimulus checks, etc)
- Announcement of US gov’t purchases of Bitcoin (currently not in scope)
Potential catalysts that could confirm the trajectory:
- Major war breaks out (US vs Iran, China, or Russia)
- Economic downturn (showing cracks e.g. blue owl)
- MAGA losing US mid-terms materially
As always, the astute trader must come to their own conclusions.
IMO, short term chop + bottom out in Sep/Oct before uptrend into next halving cycle (Apr 2028).
Hope you enjoyed the thread.
Next one will be subscriber only, and about my expectations for NFTs and alt coins from now through next bull cycle (hint: bullish).
Good luck ✌🏻
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