risicare

Originally wrote this “for subscribers” - but seeing as no one subscribed 😅 . My thoughts / analysis on the current state of Bitcoin. Sure I’ll get flamed for this, but here it goes. 𝙁𝙞𝙧𝙨𝙩, 𝙖 𝙙𝙞𝙨𝙘𝙪𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙤𝙣 𝙇𝙏𝙁 (𝙡𝙤𝙬-𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙚 𝙛𝙧𝙖𝙢𝙚). Bitcoin took out three critical liquidity levels in just a few weeks: - low $80s, prior support - $75k, Saylor cost basis - $60k, HTF liquidity Now at $67,500, the top crypto asset: - is between two liquidity pools, ~$66.2k and ~$74.7k - is between two CME gaps, ~$33k and ~ $83k - left a daily/weekly wick behind at ~$59.8k 𝙉𝙤𝙬, 𝙖 𝙙𝙞𝙨𝙘𝙪𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙤𝙣 𝙃𝙏𝙁 (𝙝𝙞𝙜𝙝-𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙚 𝙛𝙧𝙖𝙢𝙚). From a cycle perspective (last halving April 2024): - curr. top 530d post-halving (2016 525, 2020 549) - at 662d, -45% from top (2016 -53%, 2020 -43%) - implies -70% bottom (2016 -84%, 2020 -77%) - 9/25 - 10/30 this year (2016 889d, 2020 924d) - implies ~$40k bitcoin bottom this cycle - next bitcoin halving is expected April 2028 From a fundamental perspective - MSTR goes negative equity at <$15k Bitcoin - institutional ownership ~15% (2016 ~1%, 2020 ~3%) - GENIUS act legitimizes stablecoin usage in the US - Clarity act imminent, ground rules for digital assets - US equities / commodities at ATHs (btc beta 0.5) - US mid-term years avg -15% markets correction 𝙎𝙤 𝙬𝙝𝙚𝙧𝙚 𝙙𝙤𝙚𝙨 𝘽𝙞𝙩𝙘𝙤𝙞𝙣 𝙜𝙤 𝙣𝙚𝙭𝙩? Short-term (<2 months): it’s possible we range between $60k-$80k, taking out both sides of liquidity. This would address liquidity above, and filling the imbalance wick below. Longer-term (>2 months): The natural move for Bitcoin will follow prior cycle price action & timing, barring any fundamental catalyst altering this path. Potential for a short-term correction in equities / commodities support this path. This means a drawdown to sub $50k bitcoin, bottoming out sometime in September / October of this year (2026). There is no doubt the ~85% of Bitcoin retail holder are currently driving price to follow a similar pattern as prior cycles. Rather than muting the impacts, institutional ownership has compounded it by being large net sellers the past two weeks as of Feb 14th (~26k btc or ~$1.8b of net outflows). Potential catalysts that could change the trajectory: - US Clarity act (will it have any material impact LTF?) - Material monetary stimulus to address affordability (eg QE, rate cuts, stimulus checks, etc) - Announcement of US gov’t purchases of Bitcoin (currently not in scope) Potential catalysts that could confirm the trajectory: - Major war breaks out (US vs Iran, China, or Russia) - Economic downturn (showing cracks e.g. blue owl) - MAGA losing US mid-terms materially As always, the astute trader must come to their own conclusions. IMO, short term chop + bottom out in Sep/Oct before uptrend into next halving cycle (Apr 2028). Hope you enjoyed the thread. Next one will be subscriber only, and about my expectations for NFTs and alt coins from now through next bull cycle (hint: bullish). Good luck ✌🏻

@Crypt0_PK Q4 will be bear market bottom. So no.

OpenSea can drag the $sea launch till Q4? > constantly delaying TGE > they are yet to build something even after 8 years > raised $425m already > maybe we'll see a sale & another millions raised if we talk about their sustainability the revenue generation tells the whole story: > in 2021 they generated $1.04B > in 2022 it raised to $1.54B > massive fall in 2023 upto $163M > in 2024 only $28M > in 2025 it's left upto $25M the only thing keeping them alive is that " $SEA is coming " & people are hoping for a good airdrop otherwise the story is clear that they've dropped From $1.54b to barely $25m If that delay had happened once or twice it would've been okay but constant delays shows they are very concerned about their revenue generation & I'm afraid that they would further delayed until the find any strong way to sustain after token launch. but community is already pissed off & only few talking positively about them because they don't want to lose the airdrop as they've already spent a lot of money but I'm sure once $sea goes live OpenSea will be drown in Sea.

@chooserich 😂

Dude lost $100,000 on Facebook’s virtual land

@I4NFTS People got what they wanted - disaster.

This Trump presidency may go down in history as the worst ever Could potentially enter us into the most unaffordable period of our lives alongside a significant war Maybe an 80 year old narcissist as president was a bad idea after all, but in our defense we didn’t really have another option

Fuck the government and fuck taxes.

@Tradermayne No

$BTC

@PeterParkerNFT @opensea Better blame them than me.

If I get addicted to perps I’m blaming it on @opensea Keep delaying that update please and thanks

@shotguncaio Eh not for me.

Unpopular opinion: a peaceful Pokémon game might be better than constant battling. Pokémon Pokopia shows the world doesn’t need fights to be fun. Exploring, building, and just living alongside your Pokémon could carry an entire game. Imagine creating your own region, building homes, and going on adventures together. That’s peak Pokémon.

@TheMafiaPoint It’s good but no

Is Casino just as good as Goodfellas?

@aubreystrobel Agreed

NYC > LA not close

@PeterParkerNFT Ah I grew up with the OG Pokemon blue and red. Firered and leaf green are the remakes of those, just re-released on switch a few weeks ago and been on top of the switch charts.

@risicare_eth U didn’t like this one? Idk if I played those

Kinda wanna start playing pokemon again on the switch. I’m like 70% done this game and never finished lmfao. Which game is the best?

Would have thought would want to trap a few more longs before capitulation. Let’s see if $70k holds / we get a bounce back towards $80k… $BTC

@___Colb___ I mean, it’s a kids game.

How come Pokemon games never give you the option to join Team Rocket? What if I want me and my crew to be bad? Did you ever think of that?

@Stoiiic Should be a non-event today.

FOMC tomorrow. Probability map with scenarios and also terminology to look out for during the presser attached. Typically the first hour or so is short term volatility and flow due to positioning around the event and this ends up resolving within 24 hours. Dovish = more up for BTC, Hawkish = down.

@metabloxx @dfinzer @HollanderAdam They won’t survive long enough to launch $SEA. They died with this announcement. A lesson in how complacency kills.

When i listened to this it was the first time I had heard Devin talk as CEO I have spent countless hours talking with, watching CEOs present If this was an investor presentation for a traded company it would have been shorted instantly now @dfinzer sends @HollanderAdam to the spaces to do his cleaning up What CEO doesnt have the balls to talk to his audience pretty obvious this space is a joke Adam feels obliged to the space and showed up to talk to Coffee with Captain - But if i was him I would resign and gtfo If your leader cant face the music hes a pussy I heard $HYPE is launching an NFT marketplace and Opensea will be worth zero 🤣

@Ruleof2Review Uh - as someone who grew up with blockbuster - definitely not.

Ex-Blockbuster employee here. And I mean it with 100% sincerity that the world would be a better place if we shut down all streaming services, re-opened Blockbusters and video stores worldwide, and shoved people back out into the world to find and enjoy their entertainment.

@metabloxx @the_freightrain This.

@the_freightrain he got hung out when the CEO doesnt face the music thats all you need to know if I was Adam I would put in notice and a message to the space asap I listened to a space with Devin - he is hopeless

Is there a prediction market for when Hollander will quit OS?

@the_freightrain Poor guy I feel like got sucked into fighting for a team that’s playing him.

CEO of OpenSea everyone. Happy we were all able to support his lifestyle by paying fees.

@CryptoGorilla @ChrisJourdan Something they had to do is honor their commitment to launch $sea. Deadlines are deadlines - if there was even a chance of not hitting them, don’t make them.

OpenSea will offer close to $12m in refunds once wave 6 ends This isn't something they HAVE TO do, it's something they are deciding to do Refunds for waves 3 to 6 are expected mid to late April No info on wave-specific refunds More info in @ChrisJourdan interview with Adam