Fritz

@abcampbell @ecb Is BoK included in Other? If ever there were an economy/equity market that would tumble in the absence of a USD swap line during a crisis...it's probably that one.

@blondesnmoney Is your money on 2026 more closely resembling 2025 or 2022? In 2022 we had a return to *near* ATHs before continuing a long grind lower with exploding credit spreads.

This year is such a 2025 re run

@yieldsearcher @conksresearch "that's my quant" or does it make sense?

Part of the risk asset rally has been fueled by the TGA dropping from $950b to $700b as they prepare for Apr 15 tax receipts. That reverses tomorrow with $300b+ injection into the TGA. Obv lot of other moving pieces in liquidity too. But something to be mindful of.

@Chartfest1 Would it be fair to say that put sellers are heavily exposed to a sharp move further down here? High PCRs have been contrarian signals in the past but cash equity hedged put sellers would probably dump equities into a downward move?

How hedged up are folks? The ETF put/call ratio's 21 dma is now higher than during the Tariff Tantrum.

@RealJimChanos @grok has this spread ever hit an all-time low or near all-time low, without hitting a very high level soon after?

So in one corner of Wall Street credit is imploding. In the other corners…not so much. Baa/Treasury spreads still near all-time lows.

@1MainCapital @grok what proportion of net worth of these insiders/investors do these buys represent?

Insider buys usually feel like PR fluff. But $45M into $KKR at these levels is clearly an investment, not signaling. Especially meaningful coming from guys whose entire schtick is figuring out what things are worth...

@kieranwgoodwin @dampedspring @grok explain

@dampedspring if you are long credit, you are short a zero strike put .. pricing those puts is hard and the value can have a big range

My view is that credit is more reflexive and becomes more correlated than equity in times of stress. The results of those two characteristics are convexly powerful in down markets. Private credit reprice example: Good credit goes from S+ 450 to S+650 so price moves from $100 to $90 that moves price of so-so credit to ~ $80 Those simple MTMs cause reflexivity to kick in: If good credit refi's at S+650 then Higher cash interest causes lower FCF Lower FCF causes tighter covenants Sponsors cut capex which lowers growth potential Lower growth means less FCF potential So-so credit has a hard time refinancing since $80 means stress. Banks providing credit lines to funds/BDC might reduce lines are increase cost of line if too many credits are trading at $80. Prices down causes liquidity to tighten which causes fundamentals to weaken which causes prices to fall further. Why credit is more reflexive than equity: Credit fuels growth. A stock down 50% doesn’t trigger default. A loan at $80 can close the refi window. Spreads directly change cash flows. Equity prices don’t raise interest expense but credit spreads do. Why credit becomes more correlated in stress: Rising volatility, causes buyers to demand more spread given greater uncertainty. Spreads in public markets for HY, CLO tranches, BSL all affect private loan spreads. When liquidity tightens, everyone moves the same way at once. Equities can diverge on narrative. Credit converges on liquidity. Reflexivity + correlation = convex outcomes. 200 bps spread moves can cause nonlinear operating impact which synchronize tightening and amplify stress. Credit doesn’t just reflect the cycle. It accelerates it.

@abcampbell So why has GoDaddy stock collapsed? It's the largest listed domain registrar - surely it should be benefiting from the vibe coding tsunami? Or is now-private Namecheap eating its lunch?

picks and shovels have positive terminal value fyi x.com/nichochar/stat…

@signulll I'm surprised you think that. You seem very smart yet I think you're off by an order of magnitude or two.

there are maybe 200 genuinely good posters on this platform that has what 500m users? that ratio alone tells you something important about how hard it is to compress insight into a form that resonates across contexts. this is interesting cuz so many ppl think the hard part of posting is having good ideas. it's actually not. it's the lossy encoding.. taking a high dimensional thought & flattening it into few chars that reconstruct correctly in someone else's head. that's why most smart people are mid posters.

@zephyr_z9 @based16z Premature/incomplete. Similar to saying MOOCs were going to kill universities. Knowledge was already free/cheap. Agency (execution/getting something done) and responsibility (who can I fire/sue if something goes wrong) are hard to automate.

He pivoted from crypto to AI???

@signulll @PalmerLuckey had a great counter to this particular optionality in his Tablet interview

okay this ain’t optimizing per se. it’s actually maintaining optionality. there’s a difference. over optimizing is obsessing over marginal upgrades. optionality is refusing commitment because commitment creates complex asymmetric risk structures. the human mind is built to look for optionality. we were never built for this much abundance. this doesn't apply just to relationships, it's lterally in everything. you can live anywhere. do anything. switch careers. switch cities. switch people. capitalism + the internet removed friction from life. it made change cheap, fast, & always one swipe or tap away. it made many aspects of life just like disposable tissues, one time use. ppl simply just like to keep the doors open. often forever or until it's too late.

@signulll Hot take - rising conservatism across the western world + religiosity + increased regulation around explicit material + a scandal around dating apps (eg hack) -> piety -> will shift the current balance of power from men to women in their late 20s/early 30s -> birthrate solved?

@elerianm @FT Did you take this photo on a potato?

And while we're discussing this, here is the FT's global ranking of the top 25 MBA programs. #businessschools #mba @FT

@profitsplusid Given what has happened to the $ price of the short silver Etfs, surely the appropriate metric is USD volume not share volume? I'm certain it's still enormous but if your chart is share volume it's overstating the surge significantly

SLV ETF ALERT SLV Short Sales Volume just went to heaven. There is no other way to describe the volume of short selling activity on January 30, 2026

@HOUSEPORN___ Frank Lloyd Wright's Fallingwater?

Markets now pricing 5 Fed rate cuts before end of the year

@dampedspring size?

Shorted April Vix Futures at 32

@blondesnmoney Tenner says in <3 months you'll say "thank god I sold"

"No Cluseau! Haven't you heard! China is one big scam! You can't possibly be long $JD $BABA and $VIPS. The buyback is fake!" Me and the boys:

@MacroCRG Maybe you found Jump Trading's main wallet?

He closed his entire ETH short Tf is going on

@nope_its_lily As a fellow bagholder -