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Yaron Naymark
8.7K posts
Yaron Naymark
@1MainCapital
Tweets are informational only, never investment advice.
Katılım Ocak 2018
637 Takip Edilen34.2K Takipçiler
@1MainCapital @zriboua If it’s 1-3 weeks it means no ground troops. If we deploy ground troops, then it’s months if not years bc there’ll be casualties and the need to get even…
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This was never meant to be a "forever war," Trump hit IRGC at its lowest, at its weakest, and at a time when it simply couldn’t recruit or retain its legitimacy.
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@rev_cap @Rory_Johnston If US ends its campaign and Iran refuses to open straight the world will form a coalition to take care of it.
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I still think Trump will TACO—because he *has* to TACO. Oil loss it too big, too politically untenable.
While the damage is already extensive and recovery will already be a months-long ordeal, it can get so, so much worse and this is fundamentally a crisis of lost time.
People will push back and say it isn't up to Trump anymore.
But while there are two other major parties in this war, Trump remains the 1) most important, and 2) most movable by external pressures (like, say, oil prices), so it's gotta be him.
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Even Malone eventually had enough w it
Then on to the easiest target: Diller's exorbitant salary. Malone also said Diller has been "extremely well compensated" and that he had turned efforts to maximize use of the company jet into "a fine art."
Malone on Diller's proxy voting rights on behalf of Liberty: "My opinion is it's a breach of the stewardship that we granted him when we started this whole relationship," he said. "I think he believed that basically it was his company."
Some of the rancor stems from IAC's share performance, which Malone said has lagged the Nasdaq and other indexes since it shifted its focus from televised content to Internet businesses in recent years. In the meantime, Diller collected more than $1 billion in compensation in the last five years, according to Malone.
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If we ultimately have a capital-R Revolution in America, historians will look back to this as the moment that woke the people up; where the coordinated, rhythmic chant of "Enough" began to ring out in town squares across this hallowed nation
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On a timeline cleanse moment, very recently became a father. It's hard to describe how it changes your perspective and feelings towards having children and life. Pretty incredible.
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@UpslopeCapital 🤣🤣 just @ me next time my man!
Can we agree its at least much better than tech execs relentlessly selling even into big drawdowns
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Execs buying $35mm of stock in close coordination with each other - when they already own ~$2bn each - is not a signal
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Insider buys usually feel like PR fluff. But $45M into $KKR at these levels is clearly an investment, not signaling. Especially meaningful coming from guys whose entire schtick is figuring out what things are worth...
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“A lot of being successful as an investor is finding an investment's philosophy that fits your own emotional makeup, such that you can be rational when you are wrong.”
So spot on @GavinSBaker
Ted Seides@tseides
Investing is entering a new regime defined by AI acceleration, crossover convergence, and a widening gap between insight and execution. A conversation with @GavinSBaker of Atreides Management on rigorous debate, conviction, and how culture & risk management drive performance across public and private markets. capitalallocators.com/podcast/truth-… With thanks to @AlphaSenseInc, @MorningstarInc, and Ridgeline.
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@MadsenSouth Stock picking skills = 5 to 10 is plenty
Portfolio mgmt = the more the better
Portfolio mgmt requires ability to dynamically think thru overall gross/net, sector/factor exposures, relative position sizing (vs other positions) and absolute sizing (based on individual risk/reward
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@bucketshopcap @obsidiancap1 Applies to early-stage venture investing bc a seven-figure check puts you in pole position to lead much larger later-stage rounds. So you invest $5m and then investigate and then decide whether to invest another $5bn over time. Prob works well for the Drucks of VC land.
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@obsidiancap1 Also, that’s Druck. Most of the people who do “invest first, investigate later” IME are terrible at cutting & instead fall victim to thesis drift.
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Druck deploys “invest then investigate” in liquid stocks. If further research reduces his bullishness he can reverse and exit fast. I don’t see how this fully applies to venture unless you make case that due dilly is light at seed then scales before adding more in later rounds
Ho Nam@honam
This is fascinating because it is how we view the early stage venture portfolio. The real due diligence starts after we make the investment. I’m a slow learner. It might take years to understand the business (and often the founder doesn’t even know - we are on a discovery journey) and develop conviction in very few companies over time because the great companies are rare. If it works, the big money comes in later. One of our best investments over the past 30 years was in a company where the price/share was valued 211x higher than our original cost basis (from 12 years earlier).
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Not to worry… if AI is replacing us as fast as Elon promised FSD, we’ve all got about 20 years of job security left
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@PythiaR Everyone prob hoping guidance would be higher and that mgmt would still say that the higher guide is sandbagged
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I love how we play this game of mgmt sandbagging the guide & the stock goes down & the sell side asks them & they say some version of “ya we’re bullish we just want to start with prudent assumptions” aka “we are sandbagging” & everyone knows it but the stock goes down anyway.
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@pmje73 Yes and quality matters very little at the right (or wrong) price
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Yaron Naymark@1MainCapital
@atelicinvest @S_curvecap When good investors say ignore macro they mean ignore how it impacts stock prices, but not how it impacts the underlying businesses. Buying stuff at attractive prices means understanding how macro will impact earnings and not overpaying for cos that are massively over earning.
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There’s no such thing as a perfect investment. It’s all about deciding which risks you can live with and at what price.
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Unleveraged upside has a greater margin of safety than leveraged upside...when you are wrong on the business.
Lower multiple stocks have greater risk/reward...when you are right on the business.
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