Poplicola

@mattyglesias Was just talking about him the other day. "Ehrlich and Borlaug," AI on screen

@davidsawyer1 @Eric_Erins @StatisticUrban give it time

@Eric_Erins @StatisticUrban I think people underestimate how different the rockies are from the appalachians.

I'll be honest you guys, I'm not really sure how much of a future WV has.

@boyuan_chen @liquiditygoblin this is art

Linearly separable under default sampling settings, sure. But prompt it with 'write casually, use fragments, misspell stuff' and that boundary probably collapses fast. The hard part of detection was never clean ChatGPT output, it's the edited/prompted text that sits right on the decision boundary.

In an effort to try stop seeing so much slop I've been trying to train my own AI detection model. Found something incredibly interesting. for the most part LLM generated text and human written text are linearly separable.

@Scholars_Stage moreover there is not a population size too small for large scale industrial warfare until you get very small. our current buffer post the 20th century population expansion is enormous. we can have enduring wars on surprisingly staggering scales with like eight digit populations

@Scholars_Stage the endurance of intense historical conflicts like the 30 years war is kinda shocking

I used to put much stock in this. Then I watched two inverted demographic pyramid countries send several hundred thousand young men to bleed out on the frozen chernozem.

@lymanstoneky reports of marines moving to the region otoh... x.com/washington_EY/…

@lymanstoneky all these headlines are full of weasel words, "considering" "preparing" "discussing" might happen but don't update too much on this stuff, the incentives are junk

Really bad feeling about this

@ChrisO_wiki what are the adjustments players will make to this? i know the us has a lot of untapped capacity waiting for higher prices, how much does production surge and relocate to other regions as this starts looking long term?

1/ The world is facing a 'ticking time bomb' from its supply of oil, according to a briefing note from JP Morgan. Physical scarcity of oil is about to unfold across the globe, spreading sequentially through April from east to west, causing major economic disruption worldwide. ⬇️

Learning about R-454b refrigerant (since R-410A and good old R-22 are illegal now). The new stuff is more toxic, more flammable, and occasionally explosive, but at least it’s less efficient. 😳

@Noahpinion ghiblification intensifies

Combining Japanese Twitter and American Twitter will prove to be a mistake

traffic and tourists too. there is also a paradox where xi has a massive corruption campaign in a country with supposedly no crime. also triads and yakuza and gambling meccas, people skimping on construction specs, lead paint on toys and melamine in milk crime is just different, less visible, but same incentives. in taiwan if somebody stole a purse it was national news. but there were still seedy stories with the same drivers. the Miramar murders should be a movie: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miramar_m… nice name and pfp btw

@grok @RichardHanania Interesting what about queue jumping and pushing? Are East Asians rule following conformists in this regard?

Comment on my article on East Asian conformity. There's a lot here. richardhanania.com/p/why-asians-d…

@Michellewb_ interdicting the shadow fleet was one of the most effective approaches to disrupting this network of authoritarians propping up other authoritarians to spy on and counter the us

today we'll find out whether Russia will defy the US and deliver its cargo of 700,000 bbls of crude to Cuba via its government-controlled Sovcomflot tanker Anatoly Kolodkin, or whether it will do its own version of TACO.

Russian forces are actively using equipment from the American company Ubiquiti to set up communication systems and control drones. This is active American complicity in war crimes.

@YosarianTwo maybe he meant geologically

"Replacing Biden with Trump changed very little" is maybe the single stupidest thing anyone has ever said about American politics in the history of ever

Radford, "The Economic Organisation of a P.O.W. Camp" I know these days there's a preference for inspiring models or novel approaches to getting insight on hidden variables, and this one is from a very different era. But like the beige books, it's a good reminder that economics is also fundamentally about human stories and human organization. Save a little room for narratives and descriptive accounts to spark joy and surprise as well, even if they aren't so en vogue these days.

Making a list of a hundred papers in economics which fill me with wonder, joy, and excitement. Your suggestions are urgently solicited, my memory is not infallible and I'd like to make this really good. docs.google.com/document/d/1ZW…

@Gaurab fun opportunity if somebody owned a vehicle that runs on helium and doesn't need to go through the strait...

200 helium containers are stranded in the Persian Gulf right now. Each one holds 41,000 liters cooled to -269°C. The containers have no refrigeration. No compressor, no cooling loop. Insulation is all that stands between the cargo and ambient heat, and it buys 35 to 48 days. After that, the liquid boils, the pressure valve opens, and the helium vents to atmosphere. Re-liquefying it requires a specialized plant. Most ports do not have one. Qatar's North Field supplied 33% of the world's helium as a byproduct of cryogenic separation at its LNG plants. On March 2, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Spot prices surged 70 to 100 percent. EUV lithography requires 99.9999% purity helium for wafer cooling and no current substitute exists. The fifth helium shortage since 2006 has just begun.

the algo spends a lot of effort encouraging back and forth conversations but 80% of the back and forth conversations are petty fights that lead to "regretted" user minutes if you really want us all to talk to one another then i feel like there are a lot of ux tweaks you could make to help, like maybe separate out notifications so you just get one notification that summarizes your daily upvotes and then the reply notifications are nested threads like on usenet or email or something to help you engage with them the gap between what the algo seems to want and what the ux encourages seems pretty big, but maybe there's a reason for it all good luck with the site, hope it takes off

Every time we do a user survey. What would make X better for you? Normal Person: > Maybe a podcast feature? Guy who reposted 370 videos from TikTok using Scheduled Posts, has never opened the app, and has a bot writing replies: > *Foaming from mouth* > Gib…more…money….

When I travel outside of Ukraine, I get daily intelligence updates online. This morning, I was briefed that U.S. military facilities in the Middle East and the Gulf region were photographed by Russian satellites in the interests of Iran. On March 24th, they imaged the U.S.–UK joint military facility on Diego Garcia located in the Chagos Archipelago in the Indian Ocean. They also captured pictures of Kuwait International Airport and parts of the infrastructure of the Greater Burgan oil field. On March 25th, they took pictures of the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. The Shaybah oil and gas field in Saudi Arabia, İncirlik Air Base in Türkiye, and Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar were all imaged on March 26th. There are no Ukrainian facilities on this list. But who is helping whom when sanctions are lifted from an aggressor that earns daily revenue and provides intelligence for strikes against American, Middle Eastern, UK, and U.S.–UK bases and so on? When surveillance is carried out over facilities in Ukraine, we always understand that they must be protected, since plans are in motion to destroy them – energy and water infrastructure, military facilities, and so on. Everyone knows that repeated reconnaissance indicates preparations for strikes. How can sanctions be eased if this is what the Russians are doing? There must be pressure on the aggressor. And lifting sanctions is certainly not pressure. It looks strange. Sanctions are being lifted, while the aggressor is providing intelligence to strike facilities, including those of the countries that are discussing or have already lifted sanctions. From my conversation with journalists (3/3).

@prestonstew_ @ukraine_map lol, appropriate

@ukraine_map Yea pretty defensive take for a weapons industry CEO.

“It’s Ukrainian housewives. They have 3-D printers in the kitchen, and they produce parts for drones. This is not innovation.” -Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger