Preston Stewart

Our community has raised over $1 million for Ukrainian front line units. From drones to trucks, thermal optics to generators you all have stepped up in ways I never could have imagined. 1/5

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov suggested to Secretary of State Rubio that American diplomatic personnel evacuate Kyiv ahead of the next wave of Russian strikes.

"If the situation with drone terror does not change, and the Ukrainians only intensify their efforts, this in principle threatens Russia with a very serious tough situation in terms of fuel shortages, food shortages, shortages of children's goods, new social tensions, which haven't existed in such a volume before." -Russian milblogger Voenkor Kotenok on the impact Ukraine's middle strike campaign is having

The situation in Kostyantynivka has deteriorated in recent days, with several Russian soldiers infiltrating the city center. Despite a confirmed Ukrainian presence in southern Kostyantynivka and nearby towns such as Illinivka and Novodmytrivka, Russian forces managed to bypass these positions and enter high-rise and industrial areas of the city center, where they came under attack. -> x.com/AudaxonX/statu… (example) While it is not always possible to confirm the elimination of infiltrators, a stable Russian presence appears unlikely. The area remains a patchwork of Ukrainian control and contested zones. Limited data make an accurate assessment challenging at this time. Russian control requires a permanent, continuous presence and the absence of Ukrainian forces. These conditions are not currently met. However, pro-Russian analysts are already depicting much of the city as under Russian control, disregarding the ongoing Ukrainian presence. A similar pattern to the battles of Pokrovsk and Toretsk is likely, where large areas remained contested and Ukrainian forces held key positions, preventing Russian control for an extended period. We will update the map this evening. -> map.ukrdailyupdate.com

We’re calling it: The war in Ukraine has entered a new phase. @KatStepanenko and I have authored a new special report studying how Ukraine is actively challenging the positional character of the war that has dominated the battlefield since 2023. Data on Russia’s battlefield performance indicates that the character of the war is shifting in favor of Ukrainian forces – at least for now. Russian forces rates of advances are stagnating while Ukrainian forces are employing novel tactics and operational concepts in efforts to break out of positional warfare. Neither Russia nor Ukraine can conduct operational maneuvers yet, however. The bottom line is that the war in Ukraine is competitive and far from stalemated. Ukrainian forces are out-innovating Russian forces in both military technologies and in applying these new technologies in effective operational concepts that can help Ukrainian forces break out of positional warfare. Ukraine is employing mechanized equipment in tactical maneuvers in ways that were impossible 12 months ago. Russia’s ability to conduct infiltration missions will likely continue to degrade as Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign pushes Russia’s logistics and forward operating bases further away from the frontlines, reducing resourcing to sustain infantry tasked with infiltration missions. Ukraine may be able to scale these effects if they resourced properly by international partners. Ukraine’s advantage in intermediate range strikes is notably not permanent, and Russia will very likely eventually develop countermeasures to mitigate Ukraine’s advantages. Ukraine’s international partners thus have a rare and temporary opportunity to help Ukraine exploit favorable battlefield dynamics while Ukraine has the upper hand. Key Points of the report: • Russia’s rate of advance is plummeting during the Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive. • Russia is losing more soldiers to make fewer gains, with monthly Russian casualty rates reportedly outpacing monthly recruitment since December 2025. • Ukraine is starting to regain more ground than it is losing for the first time since 2023. • Ukraine’ recent counterattacks feature unique characteristics and deviate from key trends that defined the positional character of the war since 2023. • Ukraine is conducting a pattern of more frequent mechanized counterattacks at the tactical level for the first time since 2023. • The Ukrainian command’s operational planning is maturing. • Ukraine’s early 2026 counterattacks in the south were successful likely due to better planning and preparation of the battlefield. • Ukraine has been conducting a coherent campaign to suppress and destroy Russian air defenses since late 2025, in order to shape the battlefield as part of more sophisticated campaign planning. • Ukraine significantly intensified its intermediate-range strike campaign against dynamic targets in Spring 2026 in order to degrade Russian logistics at operational depths ahead of planned Ukrainian maneuver. • Ukrainian forces started actively disrupting Russian railway logistics in occupied Ukraine and Russian western regions in Spring 2026. • Ukrainian intermediate-range strikes are already achieving notable operational effects, including degrading Russia's ability to use the key Russian highway connecting Russia to occupied Crimea and GLOCs around Donetsk City. • Ukrainian forces decisively seized the initiative in intermediate-range strikes by fielding new technologies such as the US-made Hornet strike UAV, among other systems. • Ukrainian forces are achieving temporary tactical drone overmatch in some frontline sectors, which is slowing Russian offensive operations by degrading the effectiveness of Russian shaping operations. • Ukrainian forces likely achieved tactical drone overmatch in certain frontline sectors after degrading Russia’s drone capabilities in late 2025 to early 2026 - primarily by suppressing drone launch positions and increasingly intercepting Russian tactical UAVs. • Ukraine’s degradation of Russian forces at operational depth combined with tactical-level drone overmatch likely is creating vulnerabilities in the Russian lines. • Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign is likely far from its zenith, assuming continued support from Ukraine’s partners, and will likely intensify over 2026 as Ukraine fields new weapons capable of striking Russian’s operational rear. Link to full report: understandingwar.org/research/russi…

Russian has warned all foreigners to leave Kyiv saying that they will now be striking the Ukrainian defense industry, decision making centers and command posts in the capital.

Over a third there in the first 24 hours, probably due to a dog in the picture. We've teamed up again with @UkraineAidOps, an incredible organization, to provide unmanned ground vehicles to units at the front. Link below for more details!

A little update on this from myself. I've carried on trying to identify the airframes in question. At present i've got airframe numbers for: - 2 of 2 destroyed KC-135s (1 confirmed, 1 suspected) - 3 of 5 damaged KC-135s (3 confirmed) - 1 of 1 destroyed E-3G (confirmed) - 1 of 4 destroyed F-15E (confirmed) - 1 of 1 destroyed MQ-4C (confirmed) - 1 of 1 damaged F-35A (confirmed) - 1 of 1 damaged C-130H (confirmed, out of theatre incident) Some of the registrations I have previously released on my US air losses charts, but slowly working on the rest of the list the US has admitted to. @MATA_osint @vcdgf555 @prestonstew_

@AndrewPerpetua Trolls will say this is AI. They just don’t understand

Are you ready for the bunny assassins?

These are now a daily occurrence. Impressive

IRGC is entering their green era

On this Memorial Day, we remember the men and women who gave their lives in service to our Nation. We honor their courage, selflessness and unwavering commitment to something greater than themselves. Their sacrifice will never be forgotten. #MemorialDay #DutyHonorCountry #WestPoint

"Four and a half years, and no sobering up. Everyone believes in some kind of miracle... Our commanders? If we use chess terminology, they had 32 pawns in reserve, but they only brought out two or three at a time. And even then, their level of skill was such that... they lost their pawns, knights, and bishops... What we need here is actual military skill, not just pretending and writing reports." -Russian milblogger Filatov

Russian Ministry of Defense claims they've taken Dobropasovo in the Dnipropetrovsk region. This is quite a ways from where most analysts have the front lines marked. @Suriyakmaps and @Deepstate_UA here for reference.

@don_plo 🫡🙏

@prestonstew_ Done!

Three hours in - 10% of the way there! Some cool patches available here as well from the 42nd Mech and 36th Marine BDE, more details in the link in next comment

Russia has issued a warning to cars driving in occupied Zaporizhia that there is a significant increase in Ukrainian drones over the main roads. They stress that people should avoid driving at night or playing their music too loud (to hear approaching drones).

@OckersM @HarleyB38526739 That pup looks like a cold blooded killer, probably too dangerous to have inside

@prestonstew_ @HarleyB38526739 Do you get the pupper also? Bargain 😁