🔋0MR🔋

3.8K posts

🔋0MR🔋 banner
🔋0MR🔋

🔋0MR🔋

@0marginalreturn

Opinions are my own. Nothing I say should be considered financial advice.

London, England Katılım Ekim 2016
532 Takip Edilen251 Takipçiler
🔋0MR🔋
🔋0MR🔋@0marginalreturn·
@MrFamilyOffice Had a chat with these guys. MPS for 30bps all in, free Lombards if using to gear into private markets/structured products. Going to be hard for existing PBs to woo the next gen when this exists imo. No physical client meeting presence is against them for the boomer gen though.
English
0
0
0
121
Mr Family Office
Mr Family Office@MrFamilyOffice·
Revolut targeting private banking $675k expected minimum “Private banking is an area we’re exploring as part of our ongoing efforts to expand and enhance our product offerings”
Mr Family Office tweet media
English
7
1
34
5.7K
🔋0MR🔋
🔋0MR🔋@0marginalreturn·
@x_times_1 Nice. I can’t fault you on the $INV call, hell of a run. I kick myself daily for not taking profits on lady EOS back in Nov and rotating some into INV😭
English
1
0
2
298
X_times_1
X_times_1@x_times_1·
@0marginalreturn Lol. Bro, it’s never fun when stocks go down, but I’ve got so much cash ready to deploy that every dollar it goes down is a huge gift. I’ll happily buy alot more if it hits my targets.
English
1
0
0
99
🔋0MR🔋
🔋0MR🔋@0marginalreturn·
$INV Holy fuck lol - Twitter capital unloading?
English
1
0
2
956
🔋0MR🔋
🔋0MR🔋@0marginalreturn·
@x_times_1 That account literally used to have a parody label in the bio so you’re in luck, don’t worry.
English
0
0
1
161
🔋0MR🔋
🔋0MR🔋@0marginalreturn·
@2147mill Do you have any idea how to value a biz or are you just dip hunting?
English
1
0
1
1.2K
🔋0MR🔋
🔋0MR🔋@0marginalreturn·
@nav7634 Agreed. And yet we have heard it all before. I sincerely hope this isn’t just another nothingburger.
English
1
0
7
400
NAV 🔋
NAV 🔋@nav7634·
$EOSE the launch of Frontier Power USA is essentially Eos telegraphing orders are about to drop imminently. They did not create this entity to keep the admin team busy
English
4
2
81
4.4K
Cantonese Cat 🐱🐈
Cantonese Cat 🐱🐈@cantonmeow·
$IREN found Supertrend support and remains bullish on the monthly chart.
Cantonese Cat 🐱🐈 tweet media
English
24
15
309
22.8K
🔋0MR🔋
🔋0MR🔋@0marginalreturn·
@x_times_1 Not really though is it. Cerberus have a joint venture with Frontier Power UK (yes they funded their initial order and yes you know this).
English
1
0
4
327
X_times_1
X_times_1@x_times_1·
$eose public service announcement: Frontier UK that has an agreement with Eos has nothing to do with Frontier USA that I can find. It’s just more Eos smoke and mirrors bullshit by naming them the same — as if they were related entities. Scammy.
English
12
1
20
4.9K
🇺🇸🔋 Vulkan🔋🇺🇸
Breakups suck, this one has been the most difficult. Her 7yo daughter loved me, and made me realize how much of my life I wasted not being serious about finding a wife and starting a family. One thing for sure about being by myself is that it absolutely gives me motivation
English
7
0
21
1.1K
🔋0MR🔋 retweetledi
JordanSolace
JordanSolace@JordanSolace·
$EOSE Q1 quick reflection… Everyone wants to know where the order is…   Wrong question. Reframe. Eos just solved the reason big orders weren't converting in the first place.   The #1 barrier to LDES isn't technology. It isn't demand.   It's one question nobody could answer:   What happens to our loan if the batt stops working in year 8?   Before yesterday ..nobody could answer it.   So the loan didn't happen. Project didn't get built. Pipeline didn't convert.   To understand why Frontier Power USA is vital.. you need to understand how these projects get financed.   Think about this Illustration…   Frontier builds a $50M battery storage project. Puts in $15M of their own equity. Borrows $35M from an infra fund or pension. Utility pays $12M a yr for 15 yrs That contracted revenue pays back the loan.   The lender gets paid from the cash flows. Not from Eos's balance sheet.   Infra funds and pensions WANT to lend against contracted infrastructure cash flows. 🔑   Here's why:   They need steady predictable returns over 15-20 years to match their long-term obligations to retirees.   A 5.5%+ locked in return secured against a real physical asset with investment-grade offtakers (THE PROJECT) is exactly what they need.   They have billions ready to deploy.   They just needed one thing answered first.   What if the batteries fail in year 8?   If batteries fail .. revenue drops.. loan can't be repaid … lender loses money.   Banks don't lend against questions they can't answer.   This single unanswerable question has kept billions of infra capital on the sidelines.   Enter the room Ariel Green   Lloyd's of London. Rated AA- $1.5B framework… 15 yr NON-CANCELLABLE coverage..Sized at the project level.   Their job is simple:   If Z3 batteries underperform in year 8.. the Ariel Green insurance structure is designed to preserve project cash flows for the lender 🔑 Watch what just happened.   Before TPI: Lender asks: What if batteries fail in year 8? Answer- We don't know Result- No loan. Project dies.   After TPI: Lender asks: What if batteries fail in year 8? Answer: Lloyd's of London can pay the claim Result: Investment grade loan. Project gets built.   One substitution. Dynamic changes.   This is NOT a performance bond.   Performance bonds cover the project getting built…   They expire at completion. The TPI covers something completely different:   Will the batteries keep working for 15yrs   That's the question that killed LDES project finance. That's the question Ariel Green is addressing   Now let's talk about the capital stack   200 MWh Z3 system. $50M total cost   Layer 1 Equity: $15M Frontier Power USA (Cerberus + Eos) Layer 2. TPI wrap: $1.5B framework -Ariel Green / Lloyd's AA- Layer 3- Senior debt: $35M - Infrastructure fund at 5.5%   Every layer serves a purpose. Every layer is now filled.   Here's how the cash flows every single year:   Utility pays: $12M Operating costs: -$4M (includes Ariel Green premium + Eos O&M) Debt service to infra fund: -$3.4M Infra fund gets their 5.5% locked in. Every year. For 15 years.   What's left for equity: 3-4M With a small buffer probably between the infra fund and equity (escrow) but think bigger picture.   On $15M invested.   The power of leverage is unlocked by the TPI   And here's what happens if the batteries DO underperform in year 8:   Revenue drops $3M below projection.   Frontier files a claim with Ariel Green. Ariel Green pays $3M or xyz$ Revenue restored to $12M   The infra fund is not getting *as* impacted by the underperformance. That's insurance backed credit. That's why lenders will now show up for LDES. Why did ariel green write this? DawnOS The st. Dev around RTE = insuranble risk
English
16
9
85
7.6K
🔋0MR🔋
🔋0MR🔋@0marginalreturn·
@xdotdan @ilscorcho @JordanSolace @x_times_1 Unlike a lot of people on here, I’m not arm chair QBing for Cerberus. It’s clear from their actions $EOSE is an equity not a debt play for them. For the time being, they are in our corner to maximise equity value and their judgement is clearly that Joe is the right fit, for now…
English
1
0
5
299
🔋0MR🔋
🔋0MR🔋@0marginalreturn·
You’re a sentiment trader who leverages a naive Twitter following of people who for the most part can’t read an 8K to monetise short dated options. I’m not sure why you’d have an opinion on the fundamentals of the company or equally why we should care. I don’t judge as extracting value is extracting value but it’s a shame people look to you for guidance whether you acknowledge it or not.
English
2
0
4
63
🔋0MR🔋
🔋0MR🔋@0marginalreturn·
Not sure what your point is - we know we have all been consistently wrong for the past 4 years? And yet the company is still here and growing. I think the point here is that the company is building (excruciating slowly) an undeniably competitive full stack solution. Whether that solution sells is obviously yet to be seen - no need for you to participate in that bet but some of us are. Now go short and deliver me my rights!
English
1
0
3
56
elscorcho
elscorcho@ilscorcho·
@JordanSolace @x_times_1 @0marginalreturn Reasons for no orders: 2023 - need DOE loan 2024 - need $( thanks Cerberus) then need SOTA line and then containers 2025 - need stackability 2026 - need bankabilty It’s been a heck of a ride
English
2
0
1
131
🔋0MR🔋 retweetledi
JordanSolace
JordanSolace@JordanSolace·
Here is what is in it for ALL stakeholders…   Ariel Green: Collects ~$15M in premiums over 15 years. Expected claims a fraction of that. Profitable uncorrelated risk. Plus performance data that makes every future policy cheaper to write   Infra fund: $35M deployed. Gets back $55M + over 15 years at 5.5%. Locked in. Secured. Insurance-backed.   Eos: Hardware revs+ $1.5M/yr.. O&M & ~$1.5M ish per yr in equity distributions from Frontier stake   Cerberus: ~$70M+ back on ~$7M project equity over 15 years. Plus EOSE equity appreciation. Now zoom out.   This isn't one project.   Frontier already has 3GWh in the PJM interconnect queue. A 2 GWh take or pay signed 👀   Each project that completes feeds DawnOS data back to Ariel Green.   Better data .. cheaper insurance.. cheaper debt.. better equity returns… more projects.   Each project compounds. And when you apply the 15-20x EBITDA multiple that institutional infra mkts pay for contracted assets… the math gets interesting. I’ll save that for a diff time   That value doesn't exist in a single analyst price target. 🔑   Now-> Cerberus.   Everyone says- Cerberus has Eos by the neck.   i think that narrative has run its course   A lender trying to maximize recovery: Keeps borrower alive long enough to collect, Commits NO new capital unless it improves recovery, and Exits at the first liquidity window   Cerberus is doing the exact opposite of all three. 🔑   A strategic partner maximizing upside: Deepens the relationship to control the upside Commits NEW capital to accelerate value creation Extends hold periods to capture equity appreciation 👀   Lock-up extended through year-end. $100M into Frontier Power USA $900M at stake (d+e)   That's not a lender. That's a partner.   Cerberus probably has far deeper operational visibility through due dili access, deployment data, mfg reviews, & direct involvement in Frontier… Their entire return is driven by EOSE equity appreciation -not debt recovery. Bottom line:   The bankability gap that kept a large % pipeline from converting is being addressed   Not because the tech changed. Not because demand changed Because we can now answer what happens in year 8 when the batteries fail/underperform Insurance transforms technical risk into financeable risk. Could be a game changer. All it takes is ☝️
English
3
1
21
571