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SPX is now down about 8.5% Looking for a 10-15% drop from the highs where SPX finds a local low in April before bouncing (so a bit more to go). The strength of the bounce by SPX after the April low will be hard to know with a ton of confidence. My *guess* is that it would at least rally back up to the 21W EMA, but in some edge cases could even sweep the prior highs before dropping again. Path is very difficult to get right, but I think for now SPX will stay bearish into April before finding any real relief. Bear markets are a process, not a single event. Bear markets make fools of both bulls and bears.

PAKISTANI SOURCE: THE IRANIANS TOLD US THEY WILL GET BACK TO US TONIGHT. THE MEDIA IS REPORTING THEY’VE SAID NO. BUT WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION FROM IRAN. SO WE ARE JUST WAITING.

BREAKING: The Supreme Court of the United States has officially ruled that President Trump's tariffs are illegal, in a 6-3 ruling. The US now faces $150+ billion in potential tariff refunds.

We have reached a stage in our country where there are only two sides to every issue and every incident. Each side lives in protected echo chambers which are provided with a curated set of ‘facts’ and/or video footage from certain camera angles that are consistent with the preexisting views and conclusions of that side. Individuals are ‘convicted’ of serious crimes in the headlines, by politicians appealing to their base, and ultimately in the minds of the public, or they are exonerated, before all of the facts are in and a detailed investigation has been completed. This is not good for America. We need to go back to a world where we suspend judgment and await the conclusions of a detailed investigation before we convict or exonerate. Let’s not forget that a man is presumed innocent until proven guilty. Rushing to judgment helps no one and harms us all. It also greatly elevates the temperature, which keeps potential targets of law enforcement and those who enforce our laws on edge, massively increasing the risk to all. We need to take a deep breath and reserve judgment before this gets even more out of control.

TRUMP: IF CANADA MAKES A DEAL WITH CHINA, IT WILL IMMEDIATELY BE HIT WITH A 100% TARIFF AGAINST ALL CANADIAN GOODS AND PRODUCTS COMING INTO U.S.A

INTEL: Trump imposes 10% tariffs on France, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Germany, UK, Netherlands, and Finland to force Greenland sale. Rates surge to 25% on June 1 unless deal is reached

Contracts Update! Over the last 5 days, agencies terminated and descoped 43 wasteful contracts with a ceiling value of $3.5B and savings of $222M, including a $4.3M Dept. of Treasury IT contract to “develop a comprehensive strategic narrative and management approach aimed at the Human Centered Transformation and Enhanced Partnerships”, and a $29M Dept. of Commerce consulting contract for “providing the necessary staff to perform Program Management, providing planning, analysis, and support in managing projects”.

BITCOIN HAS WIPED OUT ITS YEARLY GAINS, DROPPING BELOW LAST YEAR’S CLOSE AS RISK APPETITE FADES AND TECH STOCKS COOL. HEAVY BUYERS LIKE ETF ALLOCATORS AND CORPORATE TREASURIES HAVE PULLED BACK, LEAVING THE MARKET WITHOUT THE SUPPORT THAT DROVE ITS EARLIER RALLY.

904K white Americans fired since 2020. 2M Hispanics and 882K Chinese and Indians hired.