0xFloyd
5.2K posts
Some of the highest quality businesses in the world are trading at extremely cheap prices. Ignore the MSM. One of the most one-sided wars in history that will end well for the U.S. and the world. And we have the potential for a large peace dividend. One of the best times in a long time to buy quality. Ignore the bears.
if we extend the data back to 1970s and then further filter on midterm years there actually is larger discrepancy in win rate/fwd returns over the near term (10 trading days) during midterm years, we tend to have a larger and more reliable bounce
I can’t really see the scenario where stocks don’t go lower in the near term. Maybe that’s s bull case? Market has been so desperate for a taco people have been making their own and forgot that in an actual war both sides have to agree to end it (or one has to surrender). They’re going to figure that out eventually. The Fed’s cutting cycle is on its way to being completely priced out. 2 weeks ago, SOFR Z7 was 75bps lower than March 2026. Now it’s down to 25bps and IOR is comfortably above 2yr (meaning reserve managers are not buying the dip on the expectation the cutting cycle continues). If NFP is strong, it’ll wreck rates (at a time when financing has become increasingly important for the largest companies in the world) while if it’s weak I don’t think equities respond positively either. And this all is coming at a time when AI is maybe not good enough to convince companies to replace workers with machines while business goes along as usual, but certainly is good enough to have companies attempt to use it for roles they had to cut because of economic pressure and potentially find out they don’t need to hire that role back. It’s one thing to see some bearish scenarios and brush them off as priced in, that’s been a good strategy (most years have drawdowns of 10-15% routinely). But SPX is ~5% off all time highs…
me: "can you use whatever resources you like, and python, to generate a short 'youtube poop' video and render it using ffmpeg ? can you put more of a personal spin on it? it should express what it's like to be a LLM" claude opus 4.6:
We are adding compute as fast as we can for Codex, but demand is surging faster than anticipated and service can be a little bit choppy for some. Team is working hard behind the scenes.
