GolanTrevizΞ

What stuck out reading this (it kept me up last night too): #1 proof of humanity will / should really grow in importance, like @harari_yuval insists. Ironic that sama’s @worldcoin is farthest along in this. #2 how critical direct dialogue & verifiable trust in the US-China relationship is. Telling the last thing Kissinger worked on was AI arms control b/w both superpowers. #3 if all else is FUBAR, the ASI from a frontier lab really putting safety first could be the white hat that saves our bacon. @AnthropicAI figuratively / actually doing god’s work r/acc (accelerate responsibly)

@S_OhEigeartaigh Shortly after SA came out I said it could be this century’s Long Telegram

My research indicates Aschenrenner's essay was just one piece in a bigger narrative push, and thus this piece is affording him too much blame/credit; but I was uncomfortable with it for the same reasons cited here and by the anonymous EA contributer. "The deeper worry, said Aaronson, is that Aschenbrenner’s message—that the U.S. must accelerate the pace of AI development at all costs in order to beat China—has landed in Washington at a moment when accelerationist voices like Marc Andreessen, David Sacks, and Michael Kratsios are ascendant. “Even if Leopold doesn’t believe that, his essay will be used by people who do,” Aaronson said. If so, his biggest legacy may not be a hedge fund, but a broader intellectual framework that is helping to cement a technological Cold War between the U.S. and China." fortune.com/2025/10/08/leo…

@basedjensen Ah it’s all GPT-5, missed that at first glance

@basedjensen You mean that so far it’s exponentially more costly to improve performance linearly?

Imho this is the chart that matters

@venturetwins @odysseyml @theworldlabs Also seems prob from TAM and tech, VR integration not yet under active development afaik

@venturetwins I guess @odysseyml already going in this direction, but has to take next step to VR to be immersive worlds. Wonder who else is credibly working on this 🤔 apart from @theworldlabs

It's going to be insane when we can prompt our own virtual worlds like this and explore them. Imagine adding other characters you can talk to with LLMs + voice models!

But something I’ve been thinking about is also what happens to democracy in a world of widespread powerful AGI (let alone ASI). Major influences for the rise and strengthening of democracy was to accommodate needed workers’ and soldiers’ demands. @LRudL_ touches on this in his AI through 2040 scenario, that government as much as business elites may come to realize the average worker-soldier citizen isn’t important anymore to secure and expand a state’s economic and security interests. Does democracy endure or dilute then? It’s like that realist maxim, there are no principles, only interests

no matter what you think about ai alignment, we'll eventually need gov oversight of AI to preserve democracy. otherwise, there's no way to stop ASI from manipulating voters "If I don't do it, my competitor will." those will be the last words of the free world

In one voice the TMJ afflicted spoke out, “I’m shook” 😲 9 years for me and seems to help! Here’s ChatGPT’s rec

@peterwildeford Meanwhile this story is located way down the landing page after the battle of holiday rentals in European cities 🤦‍♂️

I can see why people say @sama is not consistently candid

I think about this a lot

Right, ah I see, you mean that once researchers (whether human or AI) understand how AIs work / “think”, they can further increase their capabilities and that’s where the safety risk is exacerbated? I guess the way I thought of it before was more like a “lie detector”. I also wonder if AIs could learn how to avoid/game interpretability if that’s possible (like OAI’s recent report advising not to train for CoT optimization, which is like a “weak” interpretability atm, or AI’s will get better at “lying” / hiding their CoT)

@0xGolan @nickcammarata Interpretability is not specifically to verify, but to understand how the AI works. If you understand how it works, you can make it better using your intellect instead of relying only on gradient descent.

I think we’re in the timeline that solves interpretability before any true takeoff. between this and a couple other directions I’ve never been more excited about the field

@nickcammarata @__RickG__ Why do you think it is much more a capabilities technique instead of fully pro safety? Isn’t it basically a way to verify the model’s real process / “thinking”?

@__RickG__ yeah :/ it’s way more of a “capabilities” technology than people think, though I still think it leans net pro “safety” (the distinction is somewhat fake, but also useful imo)

On a macro view, over the past 3000 years only the industrial revolution has really mattered Rome's fall, events killing ~10% of humanity, massive social shifts... all insignificant blips on a flat line until the Industrial Revolution hits and EVERYTHING explodes upward

Many of you have forgotten that the internet has been left unfinished. We are meant to use wearable hardware to plug into a spatially incarnated internet that weaves together virtual worlds with a giant social graph of every human. We have yet to fully realize the potential of the internet; to build the last and only true social network. Instead of broadcast-only websites like X/Instagram, we are meant to build virtual cities, make friends with people on the other side of the globe, have an intimate evening with someone in your living room but they’re in Tokyo. To organize raves with a bunch of anonymous DJs living in Serbia for a Chinese crowd. To build new digital cathedrals for people lurking the internet to find kinship. Or simply to be with your family members who are living in a different country, and spend an evening talking with them face to face. A complete internet is a physical and spatial portal to be with anyone, in worlds you can sculpt.

My thoughts exactly. Keep your eyes on ball

@nikitabier @sama met and pitched @satyanadella the OpenAI partnership at a conference (Sun Valley)

@iruletheworldmo @alexalbert__ The tight rate limits have really been a drag on Claude :(. Must be a popular guy!

@alexalbert__ still around 10 messages per hour for short messages with no attachments?

Last year, Claude was in the assist phase. In 2025, Claude will do hours of expert-level work independently and collaborate alongside you. By 2027, we expect Claude to find breakthrough solutions to problems that would've taken teams years to solve.

@aidan_mclau Claude wants to be the very best, like no one ever was

>we trained our reasoners on real-world use cases and not competition math/code the real-world use cases:

@JDVance Answer your own questions to America’s wars of independent and 1812

@JDVance Are you pretending to be stupid or are you just completely ignorant of history? America’s own experience in Vietnam and Afghanistan offer proof apparently a Yale Law degree doesn’t teach you how to argue

Behind the tough guy language, there is no argument here. What's the firepower advantage of the respective parties to the conflict? Manpower? How might that change with further NATO action, and how are you proposing to change it? As it turns out, I'm right and Joshi is wrong, though maybe he believes the underlying dynamics *could* change in the future. He's welcome to make that argument.