pika2zero@ruggedpikachu
Pacifica and Extended are the most overfarmed, wash-traded perps DEXES out there by a wide margin. Almost nobody uses these to trade organically. Even Aster looks better now
I ranked the most inorganic perps dexes on the market. and i was shocked to find some of my airdrop farms on there and how distorted their stats really are. These have insane wash trading, botting or points / incentives farming going on.
Now of course it would be in my interest to say something bullish and just shill you my ref link. Especially since I'm an ambassador for both projects. (expect those perks to be gone by tomorrow) But the data is actually astonishing.
Let me explain how i ranked these by volume / open interest:
If you open a 1k trade you will generate 1k of volume and open interest for a DEX. A 1:1 ratio. Pretty organic. But if you open a trade ten times, to farm a protocol, you will generate 10k in volume but still only 1k in open interest. So a 10:1 ratio. That is what you see in the chart. And thats why OI is considered to be the more organic measure of activity on a dex compared to volume.
Now you would of course expect the zero fee perp dexes to have more volume compared to the higher fees ones, but that is not the case actually, as Pacifica charges some of the highest fees on the market.
Another explanation would be a high amount of day-traders compared to swing-traders elsewhere. But based on the markets available i dont see why these two specifically would have an order of magnitude more daytraders than lighter for example. If anything I'd expect lighter to have more short term traders, because of zero fees and forex pairs.
Pacificas Volume / OI ratio is 14.8 meaning people open the same 1k trade almost 15 times before they leave it open once over night. For Extended the ratio is 10x more volume than open interest. That is not organic.
And it's not just because they're an airdrop farm.
Lighter for example sits at a 2.7 ratio which is much smaller and way more organic than those two. Despite running the most crowded points program in maybe ever.
However compared to Hyperliquid, which is sitting at a 0.4 ratio, even Lighter has at least half of their trades attributed to wash trading and farming. (factoring in lower fees and forex)
Ostium is the most organic airdrop farm with 115M volume and 160M OI or a 0.7 ratio. Meaning people open a trade and tend to leave it open for over a day, no mass farming going on. You can also see their volume dropping massively on every weekend as they focus on RWA markets like stocks, fx and precious metals which are closed then. Logical and organic once more.
Paradex is another overlooked airdrop farm. They are sitting at a 2.0 ratio and are thus more legit than Lighter and 5-10x more legit than Pacifica and Extended.
Even the perps dex everybody called 'fake' a while ago, Aster, is only sitting at a 2.4 ratio and thus quite organic nowadays. Of course compared to Hyperliquid there's still an awful lot of washtrading from CZ going on, but its not as extreme anymore.
IMO if you want to airdrop farm anything you should focus on Paradex and Ostium. These two will have trading activity after points are over, they seem to have a legit community and their volumes will not drop that much after TGE.
Another good one is Variational. Simply because of their unique architecture.
Pacifica and Extended specifically are problematic as their volumes will literally drop 10x-20x after the snapshot. They can still launch their token at a high FDV potentially, think of attentionfi a'la lou*io. But their tokens value could collapse pretty rapidly if organic activity doesnt take over.
Heres a quick look at the data ranked by ratio and rounded:
Pacifica: $930M Volume - $60M OI - 15x Ratio
Extended: $850M Volume - $85M OI - 10x Ratio
Variational: $1200M Volume - $380M OI - 3.2x Ratio
Avantis: $190M Volume - $65M OI - 3x Ratio
Lighter: $4800M Volume - $1700M OI - 2.7x Ratio
Aster: $6400M Volume - $2600M OI - 2.4x Ratio
Paradex: $1000M Volume - $500M OI - 2x Ratio
GMX: $150M Volume - $140M OI - 1.1x Ratio
Ostium: $115M Volume - $160M OI - 0.7x Ratio
Hyperliquid: $3200M Volume - $7500M OI - 0.4x Ratio
Drift: $65M Volume - $380M OI - 0.2x Ratio
Drift is on the other side of the spectrum where people seem to open a trade and then leave it unchanged for a week or so. Hyper-organic.
Variational is also relatively high up on the list but this is somewhat to be expected as they offer both zero fees and loss-refunds for losing trades. While 3x is probably a higher ratio than they will have longterm i still like trading there, as it is not that extreme compared to extended or pacifica and also just slightly above lighter.
DISCLAIMER:
Now this is in no way meant to insult any team. If you feel insulted by me listing raw data available to anyone on defillama, then you should check on yourself first. This is just meant to highlight farming activity in hunt of points / incentives or wash trading by certain actors.
This isn't a bear post or fud either. Those DEXes can still mature into a product with an organic userbase. This post is meant to highlight two things:
A) For airdrop farmers to maybe cut back on their farming or to at least lower their expectations post TGE and
B) Teams to maybe do something against mass farming with some anti-sybil, anti-washtrading measures.
Now of course i get that teams dont want to do B as they are profiting massively off fees right now. Literally a gold mine for them. But it might be problematic in the long run.
If you're a trader simply placing your regular trades there, like the team intended, because you like the interface or fees or whatever, then you dont have to worry. Just keep doing your thing. Your strategy is profitable anyway and any airdrop is just a bonus.
If you're a farmer though, simply there to burn money on fees for tokens, then just keep this in mind and evaluate your strategy. And how this inorganic activity might effect TGE & valuations. Maybe it doesnt even matter at TGE, but definitely later on. Maybe hedge your bags.
Feel free to leave any remarks in comments. Especially if you have other explanations for this behaviour.
