0xPredictor

For my parlay papis I’m going big on @spencerpratt 🎥🇺🇸🙏🏽

Wrapped up the global @EQDerivatives conference. Recap: Option selling and call overwriting programs continue to grow rapidly as they fit neatly into the modern adviser suite selection process. Institutions and advisers continue to gravitate toward products that generate distributable yield and smoother return profiles. Dealers are feasting off the persistent price insensitive and largely dogmatic flows that naturally emerge from these programs. Buffered ETFs are scaling at an incredible pace and are quickly becoming another dominant yield enhancement vehicle within adviser platforms. The growth trajectory and investor appetite are substantial. Similar to covered call products, these structures create large, recurring, price insensitive flows that dealers are increasingly monetizing and positioning around. QIS allocations continue to get larger across institutional portfolios. A significant portion of that participation remains yield generating in nature. But people are wary that it’s just all a game of elegant backtests and poor live results. FLEX options are growing massively in size. Although they function somewhat like quasi structured products due to their customization, dealers and hedge funds are becoming increasingly creative in how they utilize them for hedging. It feels like only a matter of time before FLEX volume meaningfully explodes from current levels. Classical relative value signals appear to be decaying at a rapid pace. Many of the traditional vol arb relationships that worked for years are becoming increasingly noisy. The industry as a whole has become much more sophisticated in sourcing and implementing newer RV frameworks, while many legacy shops appear to have been left behind structurally. There are still many fantastic managers across L/S equity, commodities, macro, and other areas. However, it is becoming increasingly difficult to allocate to high quality volatility hedge funds. Many of the strongest vol managers have already been absorbed into pod structures at large multi manager firms. As a result, there is a growing sense of adverse selection among the remaining standalone vol managers. Hedge fund database performance numbers across the vol space seem to reinforce this dynamic as well. There is now such a large oversupply of volatility selling coming from U.S. structured product issuance, particularly in the 1Y to 2Y part of the surface, that larger trading firms are actively building specialized teams specifically designed to capture and warehouse that edge. Despite nonstop geopolitical tension and increasingly unstable macro headlines, the overwhelming institutional appetite still remains yield focused. In practice, that largely translates into continued structural short volatility exposure across the system. The demand for income generation continues to dominate discussions. Insurance companies remain, by a very wide margin, some of the largest volatility traders on the street. The amount of Vega sold through the VA market has become staggering. Simultaneously, the RILA market has grown into hundreds of billions of dollars in assets and has become one of the fastest growing insurance product categories in the United States over the last several years. A meaningful portion of the industry does not appear to be hedging tenor for tenor in this environment. Instead, we are increasingly seeing shorter dated puts being utilized as substitutes for longer dated downside protection. In a scenario where equities continue grinding lower over time, that mismatch could become extremely problematic. Portable alpha appears to have fully repaired its reputation. A growing number of large institutions are revisiting and implementing portable alpha frameworks as a portfolio optimization tool. In a world where passive investing continues to dominate traditional sources of outperformance, institutions are increasingly looking for ways to layer differentiated alpha streams on top of core beta exposure

I told a guy at a barbecue last weekend that I had been buying busted small-cap crypto stocks at 3x revs, and he looked at me with the specific facial expression of a man who has just realized he is trapped in a conversation with someone who voluntarily reads 10-Ks on vacation. He asked, with great gentleness, if I had considered NEAR. I said I had considered NEAR in the way one considers jumping off a bridge: briefly, theoretically, and with a clear understanding of the outcome. I told him I owned a company that sells credit cards that earn interest and prevent you from selling eth, and that the CEO, a bald man named Mike who used to sell education testing software, was, in my professional opinion, the single greatest credit card salesman alive in North America today, and that I would, if legally permitted, have Mike's name tattooed on my forearm. He asked if Mike knew this. I said Mike thinks I'm an online dog that is frustrated with his buyback policy, and that this was the foundation of our relationship and the source of its strength. He excused himself to go check on his children, who, I observed, were not present at the barbecue. I stood by the grill alone for the next 40 minutes, eating directly from a bag of buns, thinking about Mike, who at that exact moment was, somewhere in cayman islands. He should be buying back tokens at prices that will, in 2031, be regarded as the single greatest gift any small-cap CEO has ever given his tokenholders, and the host’s wife came over and asked, with palpable concern, if I needed a ride home, and I said no, I needed nothing, I had Mike, and Mike was enough, and I have not been invited back to that house, and I do not care, because Mike loves me even though Mike does not know I am alive, and the math, as it has always been in every great deep value trade in history, is the only thing in this industry that has not lied to me. note: dcf cap seeded @ether_fi

I would like to purchase this @ROLEX