0xPredictor

$1k challenge P&L update

@SowingAlphaSeed 29bps

@0xPredictor There's actually no management fee. They get a modest fee via the other Cambria funds the ETF holds.

Top holdings of Cambria's 'endowment style' ETF, $ENDW

@hansolar21 short anything $ denom.

how does one 100x leverage long cash?

@orrdavid based on your conclusions, go long stocks?

You know what most "oil experts" are in the investing context? Someone who finds every and any reason they can to be more bullish on oil.

Barrels that pass through Hormuz which the U.S. imports: about 0.4 million barrels/day of crude and condensate through the strait in 1H25. EIA says that was about 7% of U.S. crude and condensate imports and about 2% of total U.S. petroleum liquids consumption.

@Autonomous_Chad what is the optimal amount as a multiple of min shares?

Oversizing is a common mistake when farming liquidity rewards Each market has a fixed MM reward pool. Your payout depends on your share of qualifying liquidity. It does not go up linearly with size Example: There are already 400 qualifying shares in the book. If you post 100 shares: Total qualifying = 500 You earn 20% of the reward pool If you post 400 shares: Total qualifying = 800 You earn 50% of the reward pool So 4x more size only gets you 2.5x more rewards. That’s diminishing returns. Once you clear the minimum qualifying size, every extra share buys less reward share. So instead of posting giant size in one market, better spread near-min orders across multiple markets. Optimize for reward share per dollar deployed.

@orrdavid @QuipusCapital @EYakoby how do you keep your own racial and political biases in check? my own biases start creeping in frequently when it comes geopolitical matters 🙄

@QuipusCapital @EYakoby Zooming out there are more, weaker tells: * Assad falling showed regime weakness. * Israel is about to annex the southern part of Lebanon, which really was just Iranian controlled territory via Hezbollah. * The Houthis see that the ship is sinking, and haven't joined in.

BREAKING: An Iranian missile has struck Saudi Arabia. This comes just two days after Saudi Arabia warned Iran that any further attacks on its soil would elicit a military response.

@orrdavid kalshi yes, poly has zero fees (for now) outside of rule cucking which does occasionally happen, the payout mechanism is immutable according to the blockchain. perhaps even less counterparty risk than extremely stressed scenarios seen in tradfi (e.g. mf global / bear / LEH)

@0xPredictor Plus, the house fee is *way* too high.

Besides short oil, what's another way to bet on the Iranian war ending with a great result within 3 weeks? Something obvious, not convoluted. Also, anything with options?

@orrdavid might not be able to get enough liq but pred mkts give you 3:1 option like payoff for ceasefire in 3 wks

@orrdavid understood, wti on hl was up +10% from Friday fyi

@mcuban @0xAnteater commoditising labor = lower wages economic law of gravity

I’m going to tell you how much worse it was at the start of the PC Revolution for white collar workers trying to adapt, vs today with AI Today, presumably every white collar worker has access to a smart phone and/or a PC/laptop. Back then, a PC cost $4,995 , an off brand was $3,995. 5k in 1984 is about $16k today. It was really expensive. The only reason I could learn how to code and support software is because my job let me take home a PC to learn. By reading the software manual. Literally. RTFM. Or pay to go to training. Classes that started at hundreds of dollars then. It was expensive. It absolutely limited who could get ahead. Today, ANYONE can go to their browser, to the AI LLM website of their choice, and type in the words “I’m a novice with zero computer background, teach me how to create an agent that reads my email and …” That concept applies to LEARNING ANYTHING Think about what this means. Any employee of any company can say “ I need to learn how to xyz for my job , which is to do the following: Tell me what more information do you need to help me be more efficient, productive and promotable”. Or “ what new skills can you teach me that will help me reduce my chances of getting laid off “. Or “what suggestions do you have for me to communicate to my boss, who I barely know, to help my chances of staying employed “ These aren’t great prompts. But they are a start that anyone can take. Think about how incredible that is. Back in the day was so much harder for white collar workers. It was harder for new grads because unless they took comp sci, they probably had never used a PC. Big Companies are going to cut jobs. No question about it. Small companies is are going to need more and more AI literate thinkers who can help them compete or get an edge What I tell every entrepreneur, and it’s more crucial today. “ when you run with the elephants there are the quick and the dead. Adopt tech quickly , you can out maneuver big companies. “

@orrdavid how do you square this with an earlier tweet about 'price is truth' and oil drifting higher?

The disconnect I'm seeing between observers and the facts is extremely wide. My opinion is that the facts of this war are coming out mind bogglingly well. And yet, I'm still seeing people post about how thE USA is losing, or is trapped, etc. That should mean opportunity...

@orrdavid @ferderser perhaps CL is just one price? x.com/i/status/20342…

@0xPredictor @ferderser I've found that commodities move very fast on fundamentals. Especially when everyone's eyes are already on the thing. But maybe. In the covid example people were in hardcore denial. Here it's the other way, I think, where all oil experts are looking at this closely.

The big energy risk was Iran causing extreme damage to neighboring country's infrastructure. This damage would be long term rather than a temporary (and likely over soon) blockade. Iran tried the attack but it pretty much failed to cause that serious of damage. The number of missiles launched was low, and the damage they caused is a lot less than I would have guessed a month ago. Unless there is follow through soon, I'm going to call it. That this conflict is over. That Iran is out of steam. Also, that Iran did this further alienates them from their neighbors.

@orrdavid @ferderser could it be a delayed response like covid?

@ferderser A supposed major escalation, in some ways a real one, hardly up. If the damage was severe, this would have gone up a lot.

@thegreektrader @holy_moses7 @tsybka @aenews my bad! followed back 🤭

@0xPredictor @holy_moses7 @tsybka @aenews bro follow me back so I can send you an inv link lol. Your dms are blocked

I started a Discord 2–3 months ago for real Polymarket traders that are active on X. Many big traders like @holy_moses7, @tsybka, @aenews are already in. Only requirements to join: • Active on X • Publicly share your Polymarket account in the comments • At least 6 months of active trading on Polymarket. This isn't really an alpha group, but mostly a group to help each other grow.

wait, people are insider trading on these platforms? 🤯

@Autonomous_Chad does this include sports and crypto prices?

New accuracy stats just dropped ! They are better all over the board : 4h : 95.2% -> 97% ✅ 12h : 90% -> 96.6% ✅ 1 day : 89.2% -> 96.2% ✅ ( +6%, biggest point increase) 1 week : 89.4% -> 94% ✅ 1 month : 91% -> 91.2% (weakest increase, +0.2%) The slouch were accuracy was weaker on the [1 month - 4h ] than at -1 month has disappeared. The game is getting harder every day, print while you still can

update: tp @ $1.15 🤑

all-in $LIT @ $1 - plz🙏for my bag join me using my referral link: app.lighter.xyz/?referral=1065…

🤔