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I bet $1,218 to win $3 that Clavicular won't be Iran's next Supreme Leader by April.
That's a 0.2% return in 20 days or 4.5% APR.
Don't do anything funny @Clavicular0
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The Greek Trader
2.6K posts
The Greek Trader
@TheGreekTrader
Turned $150 into $70,000 on @Polymarket . Occasionally I share risk-free plays on prediction markets. 🚀 Creator of the tool: @MentionsPro and @BondHunterXYZ
Cyprus Katılım Şubat 2025
913 Takip Edilen14.7K Takipçiler
@TheGreekTrader You do realize they change rules on the fly without notifying anyone
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The Greek Trader retweetledi
I traded $225 to win $1,408, that the US won't conduct a cyberattack attack on Iran before April.
Currently +$1,119 or 500% up from this position.
Based on the rules, any cyberattacks that are part of some military action won't count.
Which means it's nearly impossible for this market to resolve as a YES during the war.
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@Emilyaustin @SenAdamSchiff Similar case with @repdinatitus , who is funded by the Las Vegas casino lobby.
Dina Titus@repdinatitus
Prediction markets should not be able to circumvent state gaming laws. Consumers deserve transparency, accountability, and protection against such predatory practices. That is why I introduced the Fair Markets and Sports Integrity Act to prevent entities from engaging in transactions involving sporting or casino-style event contracts.
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This you??? @SenAdamSchiff
You ‘hate’ PolyMarket & Kalshi, but you took $475,000 from Casinos in California.
Interesting!
Adam Schiff@SenAdamSchiff
Prediction markets are offering sports bets — just with a different name. They are being offered in states where sports betting is illegal, like California, while federal regulators are greenlighting them rather than enforcing the law. My bipartisan legislation with @SenJohnCurtis would close this backdoor and end these illegal markets.
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@A0plus69 It's a joke. I don't use AI for Polymarket.
If I trusted AI for my positions I would be negative PnL💀
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@TheGreekTrader Is it better than other AI? Personally I’m using grok and Gemini
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@KyleDeWriter There was because Pete Hegseth said in a speech that they conducted cyberattacks when the war started to turn off radars etc.
But those cyberattacks don't count.
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@TheGreekTrader geniunely insane return on this, guess there was a major squeeze few weeks ago?
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@TheGreekTrader 500% up and feeling untouchable huh Great timing or just pure luck Either way you basically turned geopolitical chaos into your personal slot machine
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@TradeandMoney @PolymarketTrade I sold now at 57c.
Pretty sure that the price will drop and I will get in at sub 40c.
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@TheGreekTrader @PolymarketTrade Might be right. I still think T is fishing around for an exit. Hegseth probably is pushing for BOTG. It's too senseless to be worth much more than 55 cents though.
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I traded $550 to win $450, that US forces will enter Iran by May.
Got into this position after WSJ reported that 3,000 82nd Airborne Soldiers are heading to the Middle East.
Too many troops there already, if there isn't a deal with Iran, this look inevitable.
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Not sure if there's even something in Iran for the US to hack atm since they don't even have internet.
You can trade this market here:
#HViBFh6" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/will-the…
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@ShinobiMots @PolymarketTrade If you check the movement right now from the US, they are bringing there all the pieces needed for some troops on the ground.
It's not just the deployment of these troops.
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@thegreektrader @PolymarketTrade This is not an invading force, there is no reason to send so little as a special unit, they will pin them
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Trump just had a QnA with reporters and he wasn't convincing that they are anywhere close to a deal with Iran.
I don't have a huge position atm but I will probably buy more shares in the next days if the odds drop more.
#daBeWlv" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/us-force…
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Polymarket is entering a new era on March 30.
Understanding these changes is essential to maintaining your edge and maximizing your returns, here is a short guide:
The most important strategy moving forward is to become a maker. By placing limit orders in the book rather than using market orders, you avoid paying taker fees entirely. Additionally, and you will earn daily rebates for providing liquidity., on top of existing liquidity rewards.
If you typically act as a taker, you will need to adjust your strategy. At a minimum attempt to get filled at your desired price using limit orders before matching your remaining size with market orders.
Calculating exact returns is complex since fees and rebates are adjusted based on share price. However, assuming equal price across your trades, filling approximately 80% of your volume via maker orders should allow you to break even on fees. Every maker trade beyond that contributes directly to your profit through the rebate pool.
On top of that, the new referral system offers a significant money making opportunity for content creators and those connected to high-volume traders. Polymarket is now sharing 30% of the fees granted from your referrals, and another 10% of the fees granted from people your referral invite. Creating actual content about trades and connecting with daily traders should be prioritized as their high volume will generate the most consistent long term income for you.
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kalshi also charges 0 maker fees. the new fee structure is essentially the same to kalshi and polymarket can’t use it as a promotional aspect anymore.
in addition kalshi being regulated by the CFTC means we won’t get bullshit uma disputes. polymarket adding fees makes it an overall worse than kalshi. no fees was the most importabt feature.
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If you think Polymarket introducing fees is a bad move, you are genuinely dumb.
Everyone knew this was coming because Polymarket couldn't rely on VC money indefinitely.
Also, the fee structure isn't even bad. Lower fees than Kalshi and no fees on makers, ONLY on takers.
In contrast with Kalshi, Polymarket is rewarding market makers with rebates, while Kalshi charges fees on makers too.
I really think this is bullish for Polymarket.
Less wash trading and nonsense volume farming for the upcoming confirmed $POLY airdrop.
More market makers because it's not worth it anymore to be a taker, which will increase open orders in markets and eventually improve liquidity.
Polymarket will probably increase LP rewards too now that fees are introduced, which will drive even more volume.
Feels like this is only bad for arbitrage strategies and bots.
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@thegreektrader @Polymarket Based on what I'm reading, fees are good because:
1) If you think its not, you are dumb.
2) Everyone knew it was coming.
3) It's not even bad. 🤣
4) You will get a % back!
5) More liq bcs buying isn't worth it anymore.
Better than Kalshi, sure
Is it better for traders though?
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I think it is bad.
You can't really enter and exit markets like you could up to now. Other than setting up maker orders and hope someone take them. But if the other participants are thinking the same, then the markets will be far less lively.
It makes a large difference if your maker orders are taken with decent frequency. Otherwise the cost-benefit can easily become bad. Since a maker order can be costly for you if suddenly something happens and you don't remove it quickly enough.
Another possibility is that new money will keep flowing in and put market orders, while the long-timers sit and use maker orders, so the money is siphoned off to the site and to the pros (to a far higher degree than is already the case). This also has its problems. For one thing it gets a stronger predatory aspect, especially together with the referral program.
I also think it's a possible misstep, since I think that there is enormous growth potential still, which will be stifled when new bettors consistently lose. Better for everyone to have more users and lower fees.
Furthermore, I think there are many markets that are potentially globally useful, and that especially would attract new interest, which could have had much lower fees. The fees for things like crypto, sports, and Elon tweets would already generate a lot of revenue, and do not have a great public interest argument. There is no need to also add fees to culture markets that are already thin, and the fees won't generate that much income anyway.
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