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Introducing Winnr. The home of decentralized information markets — built for @solana. Going public with our @colosseum Frontier run. We are building what Solana's information market infrastructure has been missing. 🧵

@prophet_notes they’ll do a framework agreement

Ukraine has a rather simple negotiation framework. Gaza had somewhat more complex negotiation framework. But Iran has a very complex negotiation framework. And I don't expect the complexity to lessen in any future conflict in the foreseeable future.

@Tradermayne @ColdBloodShill check out Hyperion Cantos the best book i read in my life

I just finished the Red Rising trilogy and, omg, one of the best fiction stories I've ever read. I flew through these three books in under a month. I only wish there was more. What are some other series that you consider on the same level?

@Polymarket trillions

We've heard your feedback, and we're excited to announce Polymarket is getting a full exchange upgrade. Over the next few weeks, we're rolling out a rebuilt trading engine, upgraded smart contracts, and a new collateral token (Polymarket USD) to move off USDC.e. 🧵

no deal on iran is possible in the near future the demands of both sides simply can’t be met until someone makes huge concessions iranians won’t do that bc they hold all the cards us won’t do that bc they can’t abandon the petrodollar

@CarOnPolymarket @mango_lassi good hopium

Polymarket just turned on fees and immediately jumped into the top 4 highest-earning crypto projects. $2M per day. While still having significantly lower fees than Kalshi. Source: DefiLlama

@CarOnPolymarket @Polymarket what if they would enter?

Got $4M lying around? And you believe US forces will NOT enter Iran in the next 3 days? You can profit $663,516.13 if you buy NO Its basically an APY of 1,000,000%+

why do u think he canceled his appearance at CPAC, and the fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago this weekend? the guy is clearly gonna be occupied with other things all eyes on Kharg Island

@FirstSquawk no way iranians gonna agree to that

ISRAELI CHANNEL 12: ONE-MONTH CEASEFIRE TO BE ANNOUNCED UNDER MECHANISM BEING DEVELOPED BY WITKOFF & KUSHNER

Most languages have no reason to exist and should die off. This includes most languages in Europe

trump is a big gambler who got stuck in iran war w no control over it he’s desperate and can’t take a loss he’s gonna try to gamble even more to get his way out of there w current dynamics continuing, kharg island seizure is a matter of time

another masterpiece from marmot

@preddytrade up and to the right

We just crossed 50m volume 2 months after launch. Thank you to all the Preddys who have been with us so far! If you would like to try our private alpha, please send us a DM.

@holy_moses7 not gonna happen

There is currently 20% chance the US will strike Iran this weekend.

@prophet_notes i think trumps paying much attention to it now

@0xWeber I wouldn't think of it as a major risk, even in case of regime change gone completely wrong.

I still didn't hear a single serious political goal that a strike campaign on Iran can achieve, that doesn't come with an extremely high risk of total chaos and failure.

WARNING TO ALL BEARS: extremely BULLISH flows coming for BTC in the coming 72-96h BEAR BUKKAKE AHEAD "the CME gap fill ULTIMATE short squeeze" at the end of the move we go to 80-83k per one BTC what happened so far (in white): - metals crashed on jan 30 - weekend dump jan 31-feb 1 left a HUGE CME gap - that CME gap was NOT filled which is a strongly BEARISH signal - this scared buyers and encouraged shorters to hammer size into an already weak asset causing a massive capitulation deep into 60k value zone even hitting 59s - massive shorts closing and >1B in spot buying from coinbase and binance (which sold 2.8B in the week before) caught everyone off guard. barely any longs opened here. BTC bounces +20% off the bottom - consolidation at 7d rolling VWAP around 70k (where the final cascade began) - early and chasing longs take profit (extreme intraday gains on leverage) - ptsd underwater longs and spot take the L (gonna crash again, fuck this market etc) - sidelined traders read CT victory laps and pray for a dip what happens next (in red): - all the above behavior causes the price to fall and the 69k support seems to break - oh no its crashing down again, panic sell - suddenly the wick gets slurped and the price start trending up - this is max pain for everyone who is not already in - longs just took profit but now they have to rebuy - new shorts are getting liquidated and have to buy - old shorts (still a LOT of them) roundtrip and have to buy - people who took the L start sweating and have to buy - sidelined cattle reads more mogging on twitter and has to buy the magnet is the unfilled CME gap this setup is perfect to fill the CME gap all of the above signs point towards that every party involved will be forced to buy if BTC just rips higher everyone wants a dip and ppl who tell u it will go back to low 60s are just projecting their COPE because they misread the market or didnt have the gut to go LONG as spot was buying a BILLION during US hours CME gap fills above 81k the 30d rVWAP is accidentally also at 81.5k this will be the second leg of the recovery wait for the fake breakdown and LONG THE SHIT OUT OF IT see you on the other side

@probabilitygod historically negotiations in Muscat were indirect through Oman’s mediation

is this market a bond? apparently Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araqchi is in Muscat, per Reuters. at the same time Kushner and Witkoff are also in the region and we know their involvement in diplomatic negotiations tied to US influence in the Middle East (and Russia more broadly). meanwhile oil prices and crude futures have been trending lower over the past week. feels like the macro + diplomatic pieces are lining up for a meeting to happen in the next few days. imo this trades like a bond. no strong view on the outcome (even though there seems to be willingness on both sides), but I don’t think this blows up.

@probabilitygod what tool is that?

Serbia’s president Vučić just floated the idea that a U.S. strike on Iran could be used as a distraction now that more Epstein files are surfacing and threatening political and financial elites. at this point he might as well be the counterparty on the “US strikes Iran by Feb 3” market. But prediction markets aren’t buying the narrative. crowd probability for an attack in the next 48 hours is still only ~16.5%. If this were truly a coordinated diversion play, you’d expect sharper repricing and heavier flow by now. Classic tension: political storytelling vs market-implied reality. I’m still siding with the crowd on this one.