t0x1c

Pack your bags

🚨 LATEST: US DOJ charges 10 foreign nationals across four crypto firms for running pump-and-dump schemes on cryptocurrency markets. Three executives, including two CEOs, were arrested and extradited from Singapore to face trial.

The only way I see a macro low as early as May (like in 1970) is if there is no relief in late April and instead a further rapid decline in asset prices. Base case for now though as I see it is that the market stays weak into the first half of April and from there we can see if any relief materializes.

Guess where we are now

Is this the best timed trade of 2026? At 6:50 AM ET today, $1.5 BILLION in notional value worth of S&P 500 futures contracts were bought. This trade was so large it sent the entire index +0.3% higher that minute. Then, 14 minutes later at 7:04 AM ET, President Trump announced "productive discussions" with Iran were underway. By 7:10 AM ET, the S&P 500 had added +$2 TRILLION in market cap. That $1.5 billion position gained +$60 million in minutes. Absolutely incredible.

$BTC Bad news, decent response Interesting spot, think you can make a good bull case here Weekly support, negative macro news entirely disregarded Maybe time for some up for at least a little bit, we have room up to $80k without flipping bullish

Production cost is $59K. We've never had a bear market which didnt spend _months_ below it.

why these 4 stocks? $fly beta play to spaceX $1 trillion IPO firefly trading at 3.4B mcap There’s a gap that needs to close $onds biggest position anduril trading secondary at 90B cap ondas trading at 5B mcap One is extremely overpriced for ipo exit liquidity One is cheap AF, leading the drone defence category $path profitability inflection point AI-powered robotic process automation $spce smallest position but a position I can’t afford not to hold Stock down 99.9999999% from top 200m mcap Enough cash till Q4 Make it or break it year The only space company doing something different. If it works, Singapore to USA. 1 hour. Delta spacecraft can land near cities unlike rockets. challenge portfolio still no change I can handle a 50-80% drawdown. Also a 10X upside. Don't borrow your conviction from me.

The most likely low for BTC is October 2026, based on the 4 year cycle. Under some circumstances it could happen as early as May. BTC does not have a monopoly on the four-year cycle. You can that the S&P 500 has gone through many periods where it bottoms approximately every 4 years. Major lows tends to occur in early Q4, but in some cases it occasionally happens in May. October would be favored if we get multiple week-to-month long countertrend rallies that delay things. May would be favored if the countertrend rallies just last a few days to a couple weeks, and deeper drawdowns occur sooner. I favor October over May for now, but as an investor we have to be aware that markets can always evolve in ways we do not expect.

🚨 THE IMPOSSIBLE JUST HAPPENED The probability of what is happening is near zero. Three 6-sigma events occurred in one week. – Bonds – Silver – Gold We are currently living through a statistical impossibility. Let me explain: Last Tuesday, Japanese 30-year debt recorded what’s called a “6-sigma” session. 2 days ago, silver did even better: it was at 5-sigma on the rally, then reached 6-sigma on the drop. IN A SINGLE SESSION. Gold right now? It’s up 23% in less than a month. We’re getting very close to a 6-sigma event. That’s three 6-sigma events in ONE WEEK. To explain quickly: in finance, we measure price moves around an average using the standard deviation, which we call sigma. 1-sigma: mundane 2-sigma: common 3-sigma: becomes rare 4-sigma: exceptional 5-sigma: extremely rare 6-sigma: supposed to occur once in 500 million Here are the 6-sigma-type episodes we saw previously: – The october 1987 crash, 22% drop in 1 session – March 2020 covid crash – The swiss franc’s surge in january 2015 – WTI oil turning negative in april 2020 But we’ve never had 3 events occur in one week. Do you see the point? A 6-sigma event is almost NEVER triggered by a simple macro headline. It almost always comes from the market’s structure: leverage, positions that are too concentrated, margin calls, collateral problems, and forced selling or buying. That’s important to understand because we’re talking about internal strains in the system’s mechanics. As you know, the Japanese bond market sits at the heart of the global financial system, and I won’t go back over the whole topic, but a 6-sigma move in a market that enormous doesn’t go unnoticed. Seeing a 6-sigma move in silver a few days later gives one a lot to think about. And now gold?? That’s absolutely insane. Why are we seeing extreme statistical events, only days apart, in such different markets? When a pillar of global funding becomes unstable, leverage tends to contract, and two things happen at the same time: forced selling in certain assets and forced buying of protection in others. Historically, precious metals are often among the beneficiaries. Long-term rates say something about the credibility of states: that is, their ability to honor future debts without resorting massively to inflation. Precious metals say something about the credibility of the currency itself, and when both become unstable at the same time, we’re looking at a challenge to the monetary framework. I won’t go on, because I want to share the rest in another tweet tomorrow, but generally when a regime starts to crack, the adjustments are BRUTAL. It’s exactly in those moments that several high-sigma events appear across different asset classes. I’ll repeat it: seeing three 6-sigma events back to back is not normal. Gold and silver are telling you, explicitly, that we’re living through a real paradigm shift. Remember, I’ve called every market top and bottom of the last 10 years. When I make a new move, I’ll share it here publicly for everyone to see, and it’s coming soon. A lot of people will wish they followed me sooner.

Because its a midterm year, the bull market support band for Bitcoin has turned into the "bear market resistance band" until proven otherwise.

BREAKING: US natural gas prices extend gains to +40% on the day, now on track for one of the largest daily gains in history. Natural gas prices are now up +240% since January 16th. That's like gas prices rising from $3.00/gallon to $7.20/gallon in 5 trading days. Commodities are on fire.

A lot of people would rather be told a lie than an inconvenient truth

Stocks look like they are breaking down against Gold

BREAKING: Silver prices in Shanghai rise as high as $112/oz, with premiums to US prices hitting +$9/oz. China is facing a historic shortage of physical silver.

The bull run for stocks won't be the Mag 7 going parabolic again, it's going to be the stocks down 60 to 70% that have been crushed from inflation, high interest rates, market volatility, covid, etc. That's the least crowded trade right now and it's already starting.

Stocks are at a very precarious position when valued against Gold If it breaks down from this level, it draws comparisons to the prior times it broke down from this level which led the US into a recession (1973 and 2008). Recessions are shaded green on the chart. It came close to breaking down in 2020, but then the Fed dropped rates to zero and turned the money printers on, and it kicked the can down the road 6 years. Will they do so again? With the current dynamics at the Federal Reserve and the current administration, it does not seem immediately likely that the Fed is going to come to the rescue. Of course, Powell will likely be replaced in May 2026 but that is still several months away. If this ratio starts closing at 1.40 or below (currently 1.44), then it could usher us into an investing regime we have not seen for decades.

I was laying in bed last night thinking about the news regarding a 10% cap on credit card interest rates. And there's a huge winner. (but it’s not shorting $V or $MA like everyone’s screaming about) It's the BNPL trade. Why? If credit card issuers get forced into a 10% cap, they’re going to pull back on risky borrowers...really fast, which instantly removes access to credit for millions of people. But (obviously) those consumers can't just stop spending, so they just migrate to using something else. ...and the only place for them to migrate is *buy now, pay later*. Trump's announcement becomes a *structural* tailwind for BNPL adoption. Without access to credit, people get pushed to alternative "credit" rails. We literally just saw record numbers of BNPL activity over the holiday season. Demand is there. So you have tightening credit, record demand, and a political catalyst that steers millions of consumers into BNPL by default? aka an entire sector is on the verge of re-pricing... I'm watching a few BNPL names: One. $AFRM...cleanest pure BNPL exposure in the usa with a huge merchant network, and a direct volume lift coming Two. $KLAR...largest BNPL platform in the world, recent IPO, eating market share in the US quickly Three. $PYPL...massive distribution, "PayPal Pay Later" is already everywhere at checkout Four. $SQ (owns cashapp + afterpay)...exposure to BNPL + consumer lending rails...secondary winner But my top focus is $AFRM. > more direct exposure & sensitivity to the U.S. credit tightening catalyst > affirm is overwhelmingly us-centric > stronger U.S. merchant penetration > direct $amzn integration > exclusive partnership with $shop I like $KLAR too, but if this 10% cap only applies to the USA, then $AFRM is the most direct, immediate beneficiary. This theme is about to really heat up. $AFRM is currently $81.80.

If you're going to Rug Pull a token and announce that you did, you probably shouldn't: 1. have weak X location settings 2. pay for a blue check on X (they have your credit card lmao) 3. very obviously use a VPN to be in the "Phillippines" @FBI this one's on a platter for you

If you’re ever traveling to the 3rd world, Africa specifically, you must read this Basically go on Timu and order 30 shitty $1 watches that look shiny and wear one on your trip Then when you’re driving through checkpoints or get stopped by corrupt cops, you start fumbling for cash. “Ahhh geeze I don’t have any cash on me, but…hold on….i could give you my watch? It’s my father’s though, it’s silver too, ah geeze. I don’t want t-“ Then they’ll say something like “give me” “FINE! I guess if you insist!” You reply And you give them the watch. They think it’s valuable because it’s literally on a white mans wrist. They think it’s your daily driver watch. Then you reach into your bag and put on the identical watch again. That $200 bribe just turned into a $1 bribe and it’s a giant fuck you because you gave that corrupt cop a shitty timu watch. I travel with at least 50 timu watches and I go through ATLEAST 10 per trip. It’s really