0xtaid.🎒
894 posts



很多人玩预测。觉得必须搞什么延迟套利。必须找领先指标。 实际上并不是必须这样才能赚钱。 当然你有这个能力 那自然更好了。 但是大多数人 做不到这点。包括我。 那么怎么做? 归根结底。 就是找定价错误的点。 一个事件 从头到尾 一直在波动。 每时每刻 都有它的价格。 但是 并不是每时每刻的价格 都是正确的。 如何 找到 这就是策略的核心部分。每个人都有各自的想法。 如果市场的价格永远是对的。 那么就代表 你无论怎么下单。 长期跑下来 都是平局。 这就是价格和胜率的对称性 导致的。 但这是理论, 而实际上显然这永远不可能。 我提了这么个一个方向,或者说根因。如何构建策略 那就是你思考的地方了。 不是周末,利润就马上变高了





Congrats to Gaib @gaib_ai 跟踪已久的 GAIB 终于宣布上线 Binance Alpha & Binance Futures! TGE 时间在 19 号,虽然不是最好的时机,但是强叙事 + 强执行 + 强分发,往往比「时间」本身更重要。 我个人会继续关注三点: 1️⃣ 产品是否能跑得起来; 2️⃣ AI Narrative 是否能延续第二轮上涨; 3️⃣ 币价结构在 TGE 后是否能走出强势区间。 如果这三点能确认,市场自然会给它应有的定价。

I investigated GAIB’s lack of transparency prior to the post of @Cbb0fe about @gaib_ai and uncovered several interesting on-chain findings. Here is a summary of my investigation: Vault deposits and fund flows Users could deposit into the AIDAUSDC/T vaults, which then sent all deposited funds during its open period to this wallet: 0xf3262049e2caa969696EEc379eb4293E6595fdD3 (referred to as wallet 0xf32). Wallet 0xf32 then distributed these funds among multiple wallets and exchange deposits: * Bybit deposit received $600K: 0x42b2DC158Fd8bF59193decCc81b520Fe3D765e19 * Binance deposit 1 received $52.26M: 0x28BaBD3FB0a34a5b5AF6446A327f9C4d542Bf6d4 * Binance deposit 2 received $43.6M: 0x816A01CD52c312b0bD4605cd584b3C2ac1376E8a * Unknown wallet 1 received $5.4M: 0x54B9C69f77F8527F897261028b1F6C21D8947E6E, which then forwarded funds to 0x4E4A8F153637DdA2dF050d920848b440C2e91bed Interestingly, wallet 0x4E4 received a small gas fee of 0.02 ETH from wallet 0x7CB59A8b01a89F8B583E72f6a2Fc99B7c7Bce554. This wallet is weird since it received two ETH mining fee transactions from 2Miners around 7 years ago, and then its 3rdand final transaction was sending funds to 0x4E4. Next, 0x4E4 sent all funds to 0x9ea6080AC1619AadB2D37810fB8f2c28674Ac4be, which was initially funded by Flowdesk, suggesting some possible settlement. Other flows include: * Unknown wallet 2 received $10M: 0x6Dc945B693C29Edc0f49bfEb25Fd7E8828C3DDc7, later sent to a Kucoin deposit, possibly linked to Mechanism Capital per AI-labels from Arkham. * Unknown wallet 3 received $10M: 0xA34C3900F666A51DAdf7A699185E4bDCb853f5e2, then swapped funds to USD0, still remaining there currently. Wallets likely tied to Amber Group: *$20M: 0xCD9685bA1c370d2d4FD24B09B51D96A73b534CC7 *$11.5M: 0x4458D5579Cc8c84fF1A37F64Fcd6c0d9171D2721 *$26.3M: 0x36985141dE196B5b0c4463fE3658ae34dc9A884B *$6.2M: 0x6E6EaB0159d5a059c2863E7d94f098AB19898912 *$2M: 0xa693533d4A2e963DD830e103b82b25f54887679f While these movements may seem strange, they could potentially be justified. However, upon looking into the AIDAUSDC/T vaults I found more alarming red flags. Fresh wallet funding and deposit patterns Examining the top holders of AIDAUSDC/T revealed several freshly funded wallets depositing millions into the vaults, funded via Amber Group and Binance, showing suspicious patterns: *0xc13712F39c6C6CABAc5764a8e53CDa50f7386cd (5M, Amber) *0xf36Eaa27D86732b53A322eDA8D741b707a85DA5 (5.4M Amber/Bybit) *0x5faCFC686C6Be6A1C9a845A3227598ACCFa45F8d (5M, Amber) *0xc1697Ad82e34ee8ec9C72e718E120585af1590e2 (5M, Amber) *0x2f49b3C2811420597210511f7Ab35d6C5861C751 (1M, Amber) *0x9BdC09869003DcF051D15CD7063C603f639ca32e (2M, Binance) *0xc6160443C4f31D9CFD7dd0D5482d5068fc8Beb15(3M, Binance) *0x88CB9663d63De0752580568D6582b709af3057Bb (1.7M, connection to Binance deposit 0x28Ba, funded by Binance) These wallets deposited into the vault and are likely linked to the GAIB team. Linking the wallets and evidence of funds recycling The wallet 0xf36Eaa (which deposited 5.4M) is a key connection. It received 5M from Amber Group and $400K from Bybit. This is significant because wallet 0xf32 (the main vault wallet) sent $600K in total to Bybit, including a $400K transfer on August 31 at 16:30. Remarkably, 32 minutes later, 0xf36Eaa received $400K from Bybit and used it to deposit back into the AIDAUSDC vault. This strongly suggests the multisig wallet 0xf32’s funds were routed through Bybit into a fresh wallet used to recycle the same funds as new deposits. Wallet 0xf36Eaa has three signers: 0xCf9aE37306a5057f64812cF7DB7C46a129c90713 0xea9817283DD77988e8Af05737855F363c9fAabED 0x22f6994a633c253832c0aF93445373Ea6D7E91Fe The last signer, 0x22f6, also signs these wallets that deposited 15M combined into the vault: * 0xc1697Ad82e34ee8ec9C72e718E120585af1590e2 (5M from Amber) *0x5faCFC686C6Be6A1C9a845A3227598ACCFa45F8d (5M from Amber) *0x35be033199E2Ccc00fBdD65d4D69c9228bD037A Wallet 0x35be is another crucial link. It sent 7.5M to 0xf32 three months ago and an additional 13M when the mainnet launched, appearing to partly fund the withdrawals and also demonstrating how these wallets are interconnected. Another wallet, 0x88CB9663d63De0752580568D6582b709af3057Bb, deposited 1.7M (funded from Binance) and sent funds into the same Binance deposit wallet as 0xf32 (0x28Ba), further connecting this wallet with the team. Conclusion If all these wallets are indeed funded and controlled by the GAIB team, it implies roughly $28M of user deposits were recycled through these wallets to redeposit into the deposit campaign. This not only shows a serious lack of transparency but also indicates that the GAIB team might be reusing user deposits to artificially inflate the deposits during their campaign for their own benefit. It will be interesting to see how the team will explain these transactions but it at least explains why they haven’t been able to give any transparency before mainnet launch, as they were re-using the deposited funds for themselves.



@hotpot_dao >curate an investor base that’s in it for the long term >give known grifter like Kook max allo who regularly scams his followers for $5K-10K bc he’s friends with bread

The countdown to Phase 2 of the Pre-Deposit Campaign has begun... @hourglasshq is set to lead the institutional vault in partnership with a top-tier investment bank. Mark your calendars and get ready to participate on Thursday, November 6 at 2PM UTC (9AM ET).







