Jonathan Brun

@goatlal This is the most targeted post I've ever seen (the potholes you shared are like next to my house lol). Just started playing with Bud on TG. So far so good. Will give it a spin.

Where I'm from (Montreal) is known for having an absurd amount of potholes So I prompted Bud to wander around the city and find me 100 potholes. And it actually DID IT. Even cities can start using Bud today LOL. Comment below and I’ll send you some free credits to try Bud :)

@0xthade Fucking greeks man 😂😂

2 days ago I bought $41 $HYPE calls with a May 15th expiry. When I bought the contracts, $HYPE was around $39.50. Earlier when HYPE was ABOVE $41, I was down 10%? HYPE is now nearly $41 (40.90) and I'm currently down ~6% on my contracts..... Fuck all the greeks, all the "vol" bullshit, for me to be at a loss rn just doesn't make sense. That's why perps > options BY 100X.

I disagree in almost every ways: - the trust gap between tokens and equity is not misguided and doesnt even come from doubts abt future management decisions. It comes from non-KYCed founders, no legal recourse, no prospectus/scrutiny on issuers pre-launch, systematic community governance drama / bloat, the structural absence of long term holders beyond insiders pre-lock, often limited operating history and terrible token launch track record - most public equity investors bet on price appreciation from future FCF growth, not eventual dividends / buybacks. Only a few blue chips are traded for div & buyback yield. - traditional token issuers growing faster than traditional cos due to “token incentives” (read farming) is both not true and not appealing. Look at the revenues of all the ghost L1s vs amount raised - nothing. Pretty sure the revenue / funding ratio is much better for traditional equities baring a very few outliers like pump. Also, token incentives driving growth in 95% of cases leads to farming and no lasting usage. We can count on one hand the number of examples where this hasn’t been the case - The best way for tokens to appreciate and “get value back in the end of users” is having (i) utility and (ii) scarcity. Then demand for the token will drive price appreciation and benefit holders. - i agree it would be great if protocols could issue dividends, but they are too young anyway. Took ~10 yrs POST IPO for Nvidia, Google, Amazon, Meta do start any share buyback / dividend program. Most of these protocols should just focus on shipping Fully agreed on the communication part. Token issuers should have quarterly guidance and reports, public community calls, etc. Should be the bare minimum @guywuolletjr

Disagree with a16z completely. This is such a VC "everything will just workout" mindset and completely misses the structural flaws. x.com/jdorman81/stat… The biggest (and really only) difference between stocks and tokens is that equity investors trust equity issuers (partially for legal reasons, partially due to how long equities have been around). Now, that is often misguided, as management can still make terrible decisions with capital allocation (pay employees too much, make bad acquisitions, bad R&D expenses, etc)... but for the most part, paying dividends or doing buybacks is not necessary right away for equity investors because they either blindly trust management, or because they know eventually the profits of the entity will go to shareholders. Thus, dividends/buybacks can wait. But token issuers grow much faster than traditional companies, largely because of the token incentives that help these entities grow. Therefore, they should be paid back quicker. And buybacks are the ONLY viable path towards paying back tokenholders. The only thing that would change my mind would be if token issuers did a better job of communicating their visions, and built trust with their token holders. In doing so, then token holders might be willing to wait longer to be repaid.

@jonwu_ @jdorman81 What are you talking about? All token issuers have an opco / devco structure and can absolutely retain protocol revenue to fund growth.

@jdorman81 Agreed most equities have an even better way to return value to shareholders which is spending money on growth + protocol revenues can’t be reinvested directly (securities, no operating entity, etc)

@zkTuring Specific examples of where this has been an issue?

Building on Hyperliquid is the best thing you can do… Until Jeff or Shoku decide your category is worth touching, then it’s probably over for your project as they will do it better.

@Sakrexer Both kalshi and polymarket will be deployers on hip-4. People seem to forget that John Wang literally co-authored the hip4 bedlam research paper

Tradexyz is eating the lunch of most HIP-3 deployers Which entity do you guys think will be the biggest player in the HIP-4 Prediction-Market section? Winner usually takes it all as we can see.. :D

@aaalexhl $20 mil requirement is too high

Personally don't think one large HIP3 player taking the entire marketshare of deployments is necessarily a good thing

@HypernovaX Interesting concept. Good luck guys - will pay attention

Our Closed Alpha is live. Hypernova is built around a simple principle: find, fund, and enable top traders. Not to maximise evaluation fees. Not to hide behind opaque rules. Not to make payouts discretionary. We rebuilt the foundation on-chain, making transparency native to Hypernova: immutable rules, instant payouts, public payout reserves and account states that traders can verify. Closed Alpha is the first step towards our vision: a trading desk built on-chain, where traders can access the capital, tooling and infrastructure usually reserved for institutions.

@JasonYanowitz Well done guys. Your team is doing a great and important job.

1/ Thrilled to announce our Series A extension at a $192M valuation. Crypto is at an inflection point. The bottleneck to growth is no longer just the technology. It's the trust gap between issuers and investors. Blockworks will solve that.

@thenarrator Nice!

polymarket CLOB v2 now lets you track builder-specific activity onchain every order attributed to the builder who originated it the explorer just updated to index all of this. first time you can see exactly which builders are driving real volume (onchain, not self-reported) if you're building on polymarket (or within their eco) and want to get listed, DM

As someone having built in the space in 2022, i think you got most of it right, but my ovservation of the sequencing is reversed. 5) Metaverse / nft-centric MMOs narrative got many teams building towards a places where infra wasn’t there, esp onchain 4) They overcomplexified the experience and their orgs to incorporate tokens 3) Alts prices broke amidst the larger Gensler chokepoint era 2) Demand was mainly speculative and evaporated when it become obvious tokens would not pump 1) Capital dried up seing that demand left, product didnt find pmf, and the infra didnt progress fast enough to where teams were buiding Tldr: capital and demand fleeing where results of narrative-based business strategies that had the illusion of pmf only because of users chasing short term token price appreciations

you should've bought the compute man

Saying you don’t support “markets that can be manipulated by a few” and using the fact that you support “pump tokens as low as $3000 market cap” as the reference example is a bit of stretch here. Any deployer can snipe its supply and be the effective insider manipulating the market. Deployers bundle coins all the time. Don’t think your model is bad. People understand the game. The anti-insider virtue signaling is doing too much though.

It's naive to think you can completely block insider trading on prediction markets. It's really just too easy to do. On... Mention/# of posts in timeframe markets: Subject can just tell someone what they're going to say or how many times they'll post. TGE Markets: There are so many CEXs involved for listing processes. Information bleed is very likely. Mainnet Launch Markets: There are so many service providers involved (RPCs, DeFi partner integrations). Information bleed is very likely. The list goes on and on... What you CAN do though, is try and limit the types of markets where insider trading is very easily possible for only a small number of individuals. @pumpcade is doing this. We have no mention markets, we have no listing markets, we have no launch markets. These markets are very easily manipulated by a few parties. If a market can only be manipulated by SOME people, we won't support it. If a market can be manipulated by EVERYONE, we see it as a feature, not a bug. For example, Pumpcade supports up/down markets on every Pump Fun token. This means markets on tokens as low as $3,000 market cap. ANYONE can easily move the market cap up or down. Memecoin trading is PvP. Being able to move the underlying asset of a Pumpcade market adds an additional level. PvPvP. Pumpcade.

@hexbtc We just got $500m of exploits in 3 weeks. Don’t think you need to look very far.

What are the biggest remaining problems to solve onchain? Be creative

@clesaege Wtf is this take 😂

Repeat after me: - If insider trading is bad for your prediction market, you are not a prediction market, you are a gambling platform!

The HIP-4 initial Bedlam paper was co-authored by John Wang from Kalshi. Pretty convinced both Kalshi and Polymarket will be much more integrated with Hyperliquid than people think - both for perps and PM Also the thesis are very different: - Hyperliquid: capturing RWA volume from TradFi - Kalshi: institutionalizing PM trading - Polymarket: eating sportsbook / robinhood for retail trading All exciting imo

Exactly. This is basically the core thesis behind the $HYPE pump. The market is betting that Hyperliquid will eventually absorb the biggest players from Polymarket. However, regulation remains the elephant in the room. CFTC in the US is already cracking down on prediction markets, and perps for real-world assets like oil are under much tighter scrutiny than pure crypto. If CFTC decides to play hardball, it’s a massive risk for both protocols as well.

I'm thinking about taking a position in Polymarket pre-stock POLY at $15.5B FDV right now Kalshi sits at $20B, HYPE at $40B What's driving my thinking: • They made $40M revenue last month from prediction markets alone • Launching perps soon with crypto, stocks, anything • Their own L2 also soon • Marketing is excellent (Logan Paul and others) The gap to Kalshi and HYPE looks too big to me given what they're shipping What's I'm missing? So, far looks like no brainer to me tbh What you think?

Also, 3 structural differences going in the sense of your article Nic. 1) Monitoring in the traditional stock market is easier because potential insiders are known and tracked pre-facto (corp execs, ibankers, etc). Since PM can spin up around anything at anytime, this monitoring layer structurally doesn’t have the time to form fast enough. 2) Liquidity is much thinner / volatility is much higher in PM, making the criticality level of the info required to drive price moves much lower 3) The event -> price shift relationship is much more direct in PM. You can see stock prices as composite indexes of 100s of different things (growth, margin, competitive positioning, macro, etc), whereas PM aim to be driven by only 1 clearly pre-defined factor. The insider doesn’t have to “hope” it will impact market price, he knows. Another great piece after the one on PM hedging.

@j0hnwang Indeed. But the rules regarding MNPI are much better understood in securities markets. Whereas the regulatory and legal terrain in PMs is much less clear (and still emerging), hence many traders perhaps not even being aware that trading on inside info is generally illegal

@Fwiz @zainbacchus Thought you were referring to Armstrong and Allaire for a sec 😂

@zainbacchus Mannnn, two bald guys playing a critical role in this trade. You're clearly buying dinner next time, too.

Just paid 33% in fees to open a position. AMA

This is my 3rd week as VP of Engineering DeFi at @Polymarket , and I'm going to be straight: the traction @Polymarket has seen has massively outpaced our infrastructure, and we haven't done nearly enough to scale to keep up. I hear you, and fixing this is our entire focus. We're a major company now, and we need to engineer like one. Here's exactly what we're doing: - Onchain data latency. We're working on making this near-instant so the experience is incredible. - Chain migration. We need more block space, cheaper gas and much smaller block times so settlement is instant. - Transactions are getting cancelled. We understand this is one of the most frustrating issues right now, and we have a complete fix coming very soon. - Massive focus on the website to make it faster, more responsive, and with better UX. - We added observability everywhere. Proper alerting so we catch issues ourselves, market makers should not be the ones telling us something is down. That's been unacceptable, and we know it. - E2e tests throughout, starting with the CLOB, so issues get caught in CI before anything ships. - CLOBv2 is not a rewrite. It won't improve performance or stability on its own; it's an upgrade that unlocks us to move fast right after. We'll do better with communication next time. - We are rebuilding the CLOB from the ground up. Most important thing we're doing. Without it, we can't be the best DeFi exchange in the world. We know it, we're on it, it's mission critical. - Unified TypeScript SDK for all APIs, which is shipping soon. - Unified API. One WS connection for everything, with a schema that's actually readable. - New Polymarket contract in the works that unlocks things that are simply impossible on the current protocol. - New hires: Head of QA Automation, Head of Dev Tooling, Head of Internal Tooling, Head of Data Engineering. - Smaller, dedicated teams. Fewer focus points per person, clearer ownership. People do what they're good at and are accountable for it. - Working closely with customer support to give them real debugging tools so any user issue gets properly diagnosed, not lost. - Proper communication with marketing and market makers so everyone knows what's coming and when, and MM can submit feature requests with a clear path to get them into engineering and shipped. - Working with 4 security teams daily to ensure we're super secure and that funds are always safe. - Perps incoming. Brand new contracts and a backend built from scratch in Rust. We're proud of this one. - A lot of other fixes are running in parallel right now. Starting next Friday, I will be posting weekly engineering updates. I joined because I genuinely believe in what @Polymarket is trying to do. @shayne_coplan built this so the world has somewhere to go to find out what's actually going to happen, not what the media thinks, not what a pundit says, but what thousands of people are willing to put money on. But right now, our engineering isn't living up to that. We've let people down, and I'm not going to dress that up. I came here to fix it, and that's exactly what we're going to do. The next few months are going to speak for themselves. Stay with us.

@creatine_cycle Capitalism is solved

i'll bet you 6 quintillion dollars that quant trading is not solved