Clément Lesaege

If you are excited about basic prediction markets predicting "what would happen?", you should be 10X more excited about prediction markets predicting "what would happen if?". As it gives a clear action to make the world look more as you want it to be.

@Kleros_io @proofofhumanity @seer_pm You forgot the 25$ of credit for foresight.kleros.io

🆔 Get registered on @proofofhumanity now! > Claim 1200 $PNK > Stake $PNK to earn 1200 $PNK more > Get rewarded with juror rewards > Get selected for cases in the Humanity court > Get @seer_pm credits every month > Get a bonus multiplier for the Seer initial airdrop > Profit

The UK once banned companies. Literally made them illegal. Sounds insane now, but the private company was a radical economic experiment at the time. Prediction markets are at that same stage. @clesaege makes the case that they're a fundamental economic innovation on par with the invention of the company itself.

Deep Funding update: ~100 participants registered. Predicting relative contribution weights for 3,677 dependencies across 98 Ethereum repos. $20k in prizes + trading subsidies on Seer for eligible participants. Leaderboard updates in real time as new jury data comes in. Closes May 10th, 23:59 UTC.

Very comprehensive writeup for the latest in deep funding! We have; 1. an ongoing $20k competition on @JoinPond anyone can participate 2. Markets on seer that can be traded with susds 3. An app to provide judgments on repos that gets used to resolve the competition & market

“Guys… I have a revolutionary idea.” …then you look it up and realize it already exists (right there on Ethereum). @proofofhumanity

Deep funding is continuing, and recently finished a major round! gov.gitcoin.co/t/gg23-predict… I think my main advice to @devanshmehta is to keep refining this (incl the prediction market version) but figure out how to make sure that the details of the design, the funding sources, etc are all compatible with chaotic era needs [see my recent tweets on democratic things: firefly.social/post/x/2030781… ]. I think deep funding already is compatible with (ii) being meritocratic and not being over-egalitarian in a dumb way, and (iii) getting benefits from AI in a way compatible with human agency. But as for (i), when I look at the construction now, there's definitely a "stable era" vibe to it ("let's make a big large-scale gadget that crystallizes a principle of justice and all socially agree to pump money into it"), and we want to think about how to make it work in a world that doesn't work that way.

@0xtarzan1999 @seer_pm Keep in mind that people do not trade on what I will choose but on how I will rate the movie if chosen.

@seer_pm I think it's related to @clesaege choice of movies

Bacurau leads at 64.19% in the Kleros Foresight experiment. Most other films have converged in the 49.90-50.60% range. Top 3 by market estimate get watched. Markets close 3rd April 18:00 UTC. Built on Seer.

Another day, another perk for verified humans (especially if you're into movies). ✨ Verified humans on Proof of Humanity now get $25 in Kleros Foresight Credits. What’s Kleros Foresight? A prediction market interface built on @seer_pm, with @Kleros_io handling dispute resolution. Right now, Foresight is live with the Movie Experiment: predict the percentile score @clesaege will give to movies after watching them. There are 16 movies, but only 5 get evaluated at the end: 3 from futarchy estimates, 1 random, and 1 chosen by Clément. Your credits show up directly in the trading flow as “Use your Foresight Credits.” Happy predicting! 👇

@NuyoRicain @le_Parisien @Youkounkoun75 L'erreur vient très probablement de l'équipe de campagne et non de l'imprimeur. Pour avoir fait des campagnes, je ne leur jette pas la pierre, il y a tellement de choses à faire à l'approche des élections qu'il est facile de faire des erreurs. Pour moi c'était écrire "conseillé".

@le_Parisien @Youkounkoun75 Eh hop un licenciement pour faute chez l'imprimeur+ retirer l'ensemble a sa charge + refaire la distribution a sa charge

«À la reconquête de Nom Ville» : la grosse bourde sur le bulletin de Reconquête ! fait mauvais genre à Versailles ➡️ l.leparisien.fr/Xxbx

Perhaps understanding someone's path might help you predict their movie taste? Here's a clip of Clement's origin story from the Humanode podcast.

What's the biggest barrier to prediction markets going mainstream?

🍿 just participated in the first Kleros Foresight experiment, on @gnosischain predicting the rate @clesaege will give to these movies I have a lot of faith in Demolition Man, one of my all time favorites barbie was underrated too. join us ↓

We launched the experiment on foresight.kleros.io . If you have given me some movies, drop a Gnosis Chain address in this thread and I'll give you 50$ worth of trading credits.

I'm gonna run a cool futarchy experiment. Suggest me some movies that you think I would like or not like! Reply with: Like: [Movie Name] Don't like: [Movie Name]

Playing Magic this weekend and it looks like @MTG_Arena is bullish on @seer_pm.

first prediction market platform for kino 🚬

@jnptzl Ahah. It's weird that the AI sees me like that. For my last ETHCC talk I also use an AI for some slides and it tends to depict me this way.

@VitalikButerin @slatestarcodex foresight.kleros.io

@VitalikButerin @slatestarcodex We just launched Kleros Foresight. Where people can trade on conditional markets with most of the complexity being abstracted away by the front end (just make your predictions and the fronts handle minting tokens over multiple PM layers, buying / selling of UP/DOWN tokens).

astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monda… @slatestarcodex is making a great case for prediction markets being useful as an intellectual tool to help us understand the world and the possible near futures better. I would love to see prediction market projects doing more to optimize for this direction (esp more conditional markets).