Chris retweetledi
Chris
20.6K posts
Chris retweetledi
Chris retweetledi

You can’t even fake it anymore
UNDEFEATED Jim

Jim Cramer@jimcramer
Miserable close... Miserable market for the moment. watch tonight....
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Jimmy did it again
$SPX
Jim Cramer@jimcramer
Miserable close... Miserable market for the moment. watch tonight....
English
Chris retweetledi
Chris retweetledi
Chris retweetledi

The X-Files (1993) is comfort television disguised as paranormal horror. No matter how bizarre the case gets, there’s something reassuring about Mulder chasing the impossible while Scully questions everything, and somehow ends up right beside him anyway.
cinesthetic.@TheCinesthetic
What TV show or series have you been the most deeply attached to?
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Chris retweetledi
Chris retweetledi
Chris retweetledi

🚨 Durante 40 años un trader millonario intentó borrar este documental.
Se llama “Trader”. Lo filmó PBS en 1987, tres meses antes del Lunes Negro.
Muestra a Paul Tudor Jones (33 años) en shorts y camiseta, gritando órdenes y durmiendo bajo su escritorio.
Lo más fuerte: superpuso el gráfico del mercado de 1929 sobre el de 1987. Coincidían casi al 100 %.
Dijo en cámara sin dudar: “Si la analogía se mantiene, octubre es cuando se rompe todo”.
El 19 de octubre de 1987 el Dow cayó 22,6 % en un solo día. Esa misma tarde Jones cubrió sus cortos y ganó aproximadamente 100 millones de dólares.
Intentó enterrar la cinta durante décadas porque lo hacía ver “demasiado salvaje”. No lo consiguió. Alguien guardó una copia. Está en YouTube.
Pero la película no va del crash. Va de cómo opera de verdad:
Juega una gran defensa, no un gran ataque. Corta pérdidas rápido. Nunca promedia a la baja. Nunca apuesta por tener razón.
Su fondo lleva 45 años promediando cerca del 19 % anual. Sigue usando exactamente el mismo método que ves en la película.
La cinta es gratis. La filosofía sigue intacta.
Mírala antes de que vuelva a intentar borrarla.
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Chris retweetledi

I’m so lost with F1. I love the sport, I love motorsports in general, I love who is winning… BUT I cant bare to watch these races anymore, it’s so bad.
- they don’t show speeds or battery stats
- the cars are slow and boring
- it’s all about batteries and software
- driver skill is at a minimum in terms of their effects on the race
I mean I went outside and watered my garden mid way through the race at Spa today, I was that bored.
Anyone else feeling this way about current #F1? 😔
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Chris retweetledi

Reminder: the Crusades were a response to over 400 years of Islamic aggression against Christians and Europe.
632: Muhammad dies.
635: Muslims conquer the Christian city of Damascus.
636: Muslims conquer the Christian city of Antioch.
637: Muslims conquer the Holy Land.
639: Muslims conquer the first Christian country Armenia.
641: Muslims conquer the Coptic Christian country of Egypt.
650: Muslim armies reach southern Italy and Cyprus, taking thousands of captives as "slaves" and "concubines."
711: Muslims invade Spain, and by 715, they have occupied most of it.
717: Muslims besiege Constantinople but are repelled.
730: Muslims invade France, only to be stopped by Charles Martel at the Battle of Tours.
792: The ruler of Al-Andalus calls for the invasion of France, and Muslim armies are assembled to attack it again, but they are repelled.
827: Muslims invade Sicily and Italy, persecuting monks. Sicily remains under Islamic rule until 1092.
846: Muslims invade Rome and force the Pope to pay tribute.
848: A third invasion of France occurs, and they are repelled for a third time.
909: Muslims occupy Sardinia.
937: The Church of the Holy Sepulcher is burned down by Muslims, and more churches in Jerusalem are destroyed.
1009: Destruction of the Church of the Resurrection in Jerusalem.
1012: Beginning of al-Hakim’s oppressive decrees against Christians.
1071: Turkish Muslims attack the Byzantines and occupy much of Anatolia.
1094: Byzantine emperor Alexios I Komnenos asks Western Christendom for help against the Muslim Turkish invasions.
1095: Pope Urban II finally declares the First Crusade.
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Chris retweetledi
Chris retweetledi

Every mid-term election year for 50 years has delivered a drawdown
1974 Ford: -35%
1978 Carter: -15%
1982 Reagan: -17%
1990 Bush: -20%
1994 Clinton: -8%
1998 Clinton: -22%
2002 Bush: -34%
2010 Obama: -17%
2018 Trump: -20%
2022 Biden: -27%
2026 Trump: ???
Ten mid-term years. Ten drawdowns. Not one skipped its turn. Average: roughly -21%.
And 2026 has more than the calendar working against it. A new Fed chair, eight weeks into the job. Across nine decades, every new chair was greeted with an equity drawdown in his first three months. Twelve chairs, twelve drawdowns, average roughly -12%. The market doesn't price a person. It prices a probability distribution. And it probes until the new chair reveals himself.
The last time both cycles overlapped: 2018. Powell takes the chair, Volmageddon hits within days, and after "a long way from neutral" the market pushes the S&P down 20% into Christmas Eve. Then Powell blinked. 2019 delivered over 30%. New chair, mid-term year, autumn washout, capitulation low, melt-up. That's the template.
Even fear has a calendar. The VIX troughs in early summer and peaks in September and October, and in mid-term years the crest runs higher. It sat in the mid-teens in early July, right at the seasonal trough. On Friday it jumped above 18. The market has started paying attention. It has not yet paid the full toll.
Meanwhile the shock absorbers are gone. Retail cash allocations at extreme lows seen only in 1998, 2000, 2018 and 2021. Put/call skew at a record low, nobody is hedging. Record IPO supply draining liquidity from the existing market.
And here's the flip: every single one of those ten mid-term drawdowns was a buying opportunity. Not most. All. Since 1934, the average rally off the mid-term low: roughly 47%. The market took out its prior high four times out of five. Bull markets don't die of drawdowns. They die of exhaustion. The mid-term correction is the maintenance schedule of the four-year cycle.
The playbook is not heroic. Hold your quality. Keep dry powder with a shopping list attached, decided at VIX 18, executed at VIX 28. Buy the fear in tranches.
The full map is out tomorrow, free for everyone. Twelve Fed chairs, ten mid-terms, the VIX season, the liquidity cycle, the 1998 rhyme. And the four tripwires that would prove it all wrong.
Greed is obvious. Fear is the edge.
When the cannons fire, buy.

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