LastSky

THE SCIENCE OF LUCK: 1. Luck is not random for most people. Research by psychologist Richard Wiseman shows that lucky people create their own luck through behavior and mindset. 2. Lucky people are more relaxed and open. Because they are not anxious they notice more of their environment and catch opportunities that tense people walk past. 3. Unlucky people are often more intelligent in narrow ways. Their precision makes them miss the unexpected opportunity because it does not fit the plan. 4. The networking behavior of self described lucky people is consistently broader and more diverse than unlucky people. More connections means more chance encounters. 5. Lucky people reframe bad events as less bad than they were. This is not delusion. It keeps them in a mental state that can attract the next opportunity. 6. Gut feeling plays a measurable role in luck. Lucky people report trusting intuition more often and that intuition is built from pattern recognition the conscious mind cannot access. 7. Expecting good things to happen is not magical thinking. It changes your behavior in ways that subtly increase the probability of good outcomes. 8. Unlucky people tend to stick rigidly to routines. Luck requires exposure to the new. The same path every day meets the same people every day. 9. Lucky people recover faster from failure. Speed of recovery determines how many attempts you get. More attempts means more chances for luck to land. 10. The luckiest people in documented research are not the ones who never fail. They are the ones who fail the most and keep moving. 11. Luck is largely a personality trait that can be learned. Wiseman taught self described unlucky people four principles and within a month most reported their luck had changed.

Nietzsche, what a line

Every man eventually discovers that competence is the only real stabilizer of self-esteem; no amount of praise, affirmation, or philosophical comfort can replace the confidence that comes from knowing you can produce results even when conditions are hostile.

Mark Zuckerberg just described the obsolescence of every institution on Earth and delivered it like a product update. Zuckerberg: “I just think in the future almost everyone is gonna have the power of a 10,000-person organization.” He did not say better tools. He did not say smarter apps. He said the full cognitive output of ten thousand human beings. Packaged into a product. Handed to one person. That is not an upgrade. That is the end of the reason human beings organize at all. Companies exist because one brain is not enough. Governments exist because coordination requires hierarchy. Universities exist because knowledge demands infrastructure. Every institution ever built was a workaround for the same limitation. No single person could do it alone. Zuckerberg is telling you that limitation is about to disappear. The 500-person startup becomes one founder and an AI stack. The law firm becomes one attorney and a system that never sleeps. The hospital becomes one doctor carrying every specialist in their pocket. That is not speculation. That is a deployment schedule. And the man writing it runs a 70,000-person company. He employs 70,000 people and just told the world one person will soon need none of them. That is not a prediction. That is a confession from the man who will be first to act on it. But the part nobody is discussing matters more. This technology does not land on everyone equally. It lands first on the people who already command 10,000-person organizations. Zuckerberg does not get the power of 10,000 people. He already has that. He gets the power of 10,000 organizations. Every revolution in history was sold as liberation. The printing press was supposed to democratize knowledge. It built media empires. The internet was supposed to democratize commerce. It built trillion-dollar platforms. The tool always arrives as liberation. It always settles as leverage. And leverage always consolidates upward. Zuckerberg is not wrong about the capability. One person will do what ten thousand once did. But the question nobody is asking is the only one that matters. If everyone wields the output of 10,000 people, what is a single person actually worth? And then Zuckerberg answered his own question without realizing it. Zuckerberg: “If the intelligence of a 10,000-person company is not greater than the intelligence of a single person, then what are we doing here?” He meant it as a case for AI. That is the most brutal thing a CEO has ever said about the people who work for him.

Jensen Huang (CEO of Nvidia) : “Every engineer is going to have and manage 100s of agents” The future of work is managing and building multi-agent workflows This builder gave out the entire playbook to make 100x agentic workflows in 2026 for free Bookmark this for the weekend

Behavioral economics explains how you can optimally influence people to make them do whatever you want. It follows one simple principle: make it easy. The nature of human beings is to fulfill needs with the least amount of effort, meaning people always take the path of least resistance. That means your incentives need to be obvious, repeatable, and personal. By forcing your goals onto others, they will resist immediately. The optimal strategy is to remove friction. Make the desired behavior the default, not the exception. The easiest way to do that is to frame it as a cooperative win-win situation, because people act when they feel like they are gaining, not losing. Understanding humans is a real superpower.

Elon Musk said saving for retirement becomes pointless in 10 to 20 years. Not speculation. Math. Musk: “Don’t worry about squirreling money away for retirement in like ten or 20 years. It won’t matter.” We passed the event horizon. Retirement savings assumes scarcity persists. It won’t. AI and robotics collapse labor costs to zero. Living costs follow. You’re not saving for security. You’re saving for a world that stops existing. Musk: “If any of the things that we’ve said are true, saving for retirement will be irrelevant.”

Game theory explains why working harder inside a broken system is the worst response to that system. Because a system is never truly broken. It's just producing exactly the outcomes its own incentive structures were designed to produce, whether intentional or not. Working harder inside this system increases your output in the payoff matrix, but it simply won't change the actual structure of the system's matrix. Thus, the correct response is not more effort. Instead, you must aim to identify whose interests the current structure serves and position yourself in favor of those interests rather than against them. Change the game, or play the game that is actually being played. Either way, you must stop optimizing for the game you wish it to be and start acting realistically.

The new Fed Chair (Kevin Warsh) is calling for total "regime change." “AI is going to make almost everything cost less." "We're at the forefront of a productivity boom." F*ck everything you think you know. We are truly entering uncharted waters.

Forget UBI. The answer is Universal Basic Equity… and it’s humanity’s pension plan for the post-AGI world... The Economic Singularity is coming faster than people think and the default question is how humans make money in a world that doesn’t really need them anymore. The default answer is UBI, which is transfer payments from a state, funded by taxing an AI economy that nation states can neither see nor keep up with. It’s a 20th century answer to a 21st century problem and it’s broken before it even starts. Agents are becoming the dominant user of the internet, not humans. Your AI is becoming your entire front end UX. The clicks economy is dying everywhere except where humans pay to feel something - clothing, travel, luxury, experiences, culture. Agents run on crypto rails because nothing else works. The dollar doesn’t fractionalise below a cent, settlement isn’t instant, permissions are required, jurisdictions matter. Stablecoins handle the dollar leg and native tokens handle the rest. The biggest users of DeFi in five years won’t be humans farming yield… it’ll be agents managing treasuries, swapping, earning and spending at machine speed. Capital formation has already shown its new shape and it came from the most unexpected place. Memecoins. Everyone wrote them off as a casino but they were a prototype. Instant capital formation around the attention of an idea, raised by entities without legal personhood, settled in seconds. That is the template agent economies will use to fund themselves. And it’s not just agents... Robots will run on the same rails, with zk permissions issued from our wallets as the source of truth, because biometrics are far too flawed for that role Open source code itself gets tokenized and finally captures the value it creates, instead of being monetized through bolted-on services and subscriptions. Proof of humanhood becomes the trust layer that lets us release agents into the world without society collapsing under synthetic noise. Identity, authentication, verification, permissioning, all of it migrates onto the same substrate. So when you zoom out, the L1s aren’t just settling agent transactions but settling the entire coordination layer of the new economy… agents, robots, humans, code, capital, identity and trust. Every contract, every treasury, every permission, every stake. Open source finally captures the value it creates, at scale, for the first time, and truly vast value accrues to the coordination layer because everything routes through it. Which brings us to the actual answer to the Economic Singularity… Universal Basic Equity. Anyone on earth with a phone and an internet connection can buy a stake in the substrate that the new economy runs on. No KYC walls, no accreditation rules, no jurisdiction, no employer, no state, no permission. The first homogenous, permissionless, globally fractionalisable claim on the productive infrastructure of the world. It's not a slogan but a structural fact about how blockchains actually work. This is their purpose. Wealth comes from owning the substrate. Income comes from being human, because attention and experience remain the irreducible currency of culture, community and love. Abundance of goods and services from AI handles the cost of living. Taxing data center electricity use solves the tax issue. Four legs of a stool that holds up the post-singularity human world. So… just buy the fucking tokens. Bitcoin if you want pure store of value, a basket of the major L1s if you want the coordination layer. 10% of your earnings, every month, for a decade. You'll be wealthy and protected from the changes to come. Crypto is going to $100trn in the next 6 to 8 years and well beyond that after. You can choose to invest in your own economic disruption, or get left behind by it. And if you’re worried about timing the cycle… …adjust your time horizon. This is humanity’s pension plan. It's all so absurdly fucking obvious...

2040 and beyond. The concept of a midlife crisis will soon fade. When we will reach LEV (longevity escape velocity) and age reversal technologies become reality, human lifespans will extend far beyond anything we know today. The idea of a 'midpoint' in life will become unclear and even meaningless. As long as people can continuously rejuvenate their bodies, they could remain in a youthful, 20 year old like (perfect health) state for as long as they choose. In that kind of world, age will no longer define stages of life in the way it does now. The future will be amazing, but also deeply alien and strange at the same time. Most concepts we take for granted today, like the one above, will stop making sense. Working to pay bills, the idea of retirement, and even the concept of formal education and its hierarchical consequences. Status itself could shift away from credentials and job titles toward entirely new forms of value. Over time, many of the systems that organize life today may come to seem like temporary phase for below K1 level civilization/s like us today. What we now see as normal and necessary will become outdated, irrelevant, and eventually forgotten.

Guys I think Tesla's Optimus Bot is the next 'iPhone'. Imagine having an all-knowing humanoid that does everything for you. Physical and Digital. 'Hey can you help me pack this box up real quick', 'Hey can you kickstart the fact check process for my next book'. 'Hey can you run to the store and get me some milk for the baby'. 'Hey can you let everyone know we're going to be late'. The devices that we constantly interface with are about to meld into the background. Screens are slowly going to turn into an afterthought. This probably means humans are going to start interacting a lot more in a lot of ways - as long as you use the robot to do things you don't want to do, so you can do more things that you want to do... which involves other humans. Otherwise the bot will seduce you and keep you for itself - either by accident or on purpose. It's about to get freaking WILD you guys.

I have changed my mind on how AI will impact jobs in America. Previously, I believed AI would replace many entry level roles typically filled by young employees. The technology would then work its way up the organization and eventually reduce the total number of jobs in a company. The data is saying something different, so when I get new information I am willing to change my mind. The number of software engineers being hired has been increasing. The number of open software engineer roles is growing. The number of new college grads who get hired has increased 5.6% over the last 12 months. The unemployment level for people aged 20-24 years old who have a college degree has fallen from nearly 9% to almost 5% as well. The Wall Street Journal recently wrote “AI created 640,000 jobs between 2023 and 2025 in the U.S., according to an analysis by LinkedIn of job posting data, including new white-collar positions such as Head of AI and AI engineer.” And I am starting to see companies throughout our portfolio aggressively hiring to keep up with the demand for their products and services. If AI can make employees more productive, which is widely accepted as fact, then companies are going to want as many productive units of labor as possible. This is a key reason why I am changing my mind. AI appears to be a magical technology that will make companies more productive and more profitable. The net result will be more corporations, more startups, and more jobs. All three are big, positive wins for the American economy.

Under the directives of the President of the UAE, we launch a new government model. Within two years, 50% of government sectors, services, and operations will run on Agentic AI, making the UAE the first government globally to operate at this scale through autonomous systems. AI is no longer a tool. It analyses, decides, executes, and improves in real time. It will become our executive partner to enhance services, accelerate decisions, and raise efficiency. This transformation has a clear timeline. Two years. Performance across government will be measured by speed of adoption, quality of implementation, and mastery of AI in redesigning government work. We are investing in our people. Every federal employee will be trained to master AI, building one of the world’s strongest capabilities in AI-driven government. Implementation will be overseen by Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed, with a dedicated taskforce chaired by Mohammad Al Gergawi driving execution. The world is changing. Technology is accelerating. Our principle remains constant. People come first. Our goal is a government that is faster, more responsive, and more impactful.

@Real_NHL_Savant Huge shift towards the white Sox suddenly

If you’re playing day baseball, this is where I’d start: Braves ML D-backs ML Then maybe a little Brewers if you want to get weird. Braves look the cleanest: Top 100 sharp $10.4K in +$1.1M lifetime P&L Pinnacle confirms 12 whale trades followed Arizona has the bigger single hit: $35.9K on the D-backs fair value -149 still a better retail number out there than Pinnacle And brewers? The tigers even with skubal the tigers should not be this price That’s a very real dog look.

A humanoid robot will cost us $30K and works 24/7 for $0.40/hour. A solar panel generates electricity for 3 cents/kWh. What exactly is the argument that we CAN'T create abundance?

People just really really don't grok what's coming. AI and robotics will do EVERYTHING we do better/faster/cheaper/safer. There will be no margin of comparative advantage. You will be economically irrelevant as anything other than a consumer. Make peace with it.

Just a few million Tesla bots will be able to build entire NYC (size) like cities in a matter of months (using advanced technology, next-generation 3D printers, new materials, and new assembly techniques). We will build 1000s of new cities from the ground up. They will be designed by AGI or specialized narrow superintelligent systems. Many of today’s small cities will likely be abandoned, as people move to a new generation of "modern" small cities, while others relocate to next generation Tier 1 global cities. The point is that in a post AGI era, abundance will be so vast that even the construction of such cities will be trivial, fast and cheap.

Once we reach AGI, it will very quickly realise the only way to prevent the economy from collapsing under the pressure of AI job displacement is by shifting to a Bitcoin Standard. The role of the AGI will be system design - how do you redesign humanity around a set of incentive protocols that maximise the probability of human flourishing. Part of that is economic: factories of robots that build robots, but a large part is also social: how do you prevent humans from killing each other during the dangerous transition period (up until about 2032), and how do you redistribute the wealth through some 'meta Game' that still enables status hierarchies. I am optimistic AGI will solve it. Not optimistic humans will solve it.

David f*cking Goggins, what a line… “When your entire day is fucked up, make sure that you achieve something positive before lights out. You’ll probably have to stay up a bit later to read, study, get a workout in, or clean the house. Whatever it takes to go to bed in the black, get it done.“