2500cap

Header: IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER Body: Nothing on this account constitutes investment advice, performance data, or a recommendation that any security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. • No Solicitation: These views are not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy interests in any investment vehicle. • Holdings: I often hold positions in the stocks discussed. I may exit or reverse these positions at any time without notice. I have no obligation to update this account on my trading activity. • As-Is: Information is presented "as is" and possibly based on third-party data. I make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. • Forward-Looking Statements: Tweets may contain forward-looking statements. These are subject to risks and uncertainties; actual results will likely differ. Do your own diligence. Consult your own tax, legal, and financial advisors.

@gkamstra I agree. That is surprisingly low.

@Josh__Hardman @Psyched_Alpha PA+ subscriber who enjoys your work a lot. To what extent have you thought about what is likely to happen with Spravato volumes/penetration in next 2-4 years? I have a soft hypothesis that new drug launches could be surprisingly favorable for Spravato due to a sort of Overton window phenomenon in which the launch of COMP360 (and trial/regulatory progress for GM-2505 / BPL-003 / VLS-01) shifts the goal posts in favor of more widespread Spravato adoption (i.e., what once seemed fringe now seems like a measured compromise position amongst patients and providers). Would love your thoughts. Writing it publicly rather than DM because I’d also love thoughts from others. $ATAI $CMPS $STIM

This is interesting, esp in the context of broader negative commentary from Klomp and others. One read is posturing, a sort of Trump chaos and confusion strategy. Another might suggest that the administration is actually sincere in wanting to strengthen and scale MA.

I would add that the market segment least at risk of commoditization appears to be the higher end where advisors take a more holistic approach and offer a broad range of supports outside of traditional financial advisory. Good WSJ article on this yesterday. wsj.com/finance/invest…

Don’t worry about the DIY segment of the population. They have always had a new talking point that’s going to disrupt the whole model, 8-12 years roboadvisors were going to automate everything and eliminate the need for humans. Those aren’t our customers anyway. Get started, do good work/help people improve their financial lives/make goals, earn trust and thereby more work and ultimately the rewards will follow.

Financial advisors, what’s your best advice here?

@bucketshopcap Amen, brother. Managing your own psychology through ups and downs is critical for running money but also hugely important in almost every field of human endeavor.

@2500capital Got to teach them early, life is all about bouncing back.

Making my kid sit & watch me buy the dip. Worst thing is to grow up to become a panican.

@bucketshopcap This might be our best hope for preserving a market that justifies the efforts of active management. I was feeling down and you’ve turned that around. Thank you.

And you wonder why there are a bunch of retards misinterpreting the revenue forecast at GTC. Lol. Can't do basic reading comprehension or math anymore b/c you're spending all day playing with LLMs & farting around on Fintwit. Zero analytical skills out there.

TL is now flooded with AI garbage output. Claude-generated summaries of 10-Ks, earnings calls, etc. If you ever thought the time commitment of reading basic source docs was what was holding you back, you might be brain dead. Maybe at least now buyside headcount can go -80%.

@stevehou Depending on your time horizon for measurement, I would probably take the other side of that trade. Short-term thinking is a major pitfall and quarterly reporting is part of the problem. And this could become even more true as people need to make tough decisions regarding AI.

Long companies that report quarterly and short companies that only report semiannually.

The AI industry should be 100% focused on bringing positive change to healthcare. It’s the one clear mandate from the American public.

@gkamstra @marcportermagee Providers and provider groups that embrace technology are getting better results - especially happier and healthier patients - and they will continue to gain share. Some folks will holdout but those same folks will either age out or get edged out.

@gkamstra @marcportermagee This is by far the most exciting investment theme of the next ten years in my opinion. ML/AI tools are already allowing companies like $ASTH to generate industry leading health and financial outcomes. Reducing unnecessary hospitalizations alone saves billions and improves lives.

@BickerinBrattle @stevehou What’s your rationale? You’ve been generally bearish and quite thoughtful over the last six months so I’m curious. Thanks.

@stevehou I am long JPM calls now. First long since July 25

Open X, it's just wall to wall endless bearishness, apparently we are talking about 2007/GFC comparison now? 1970s stagflation. Maybe I should be getting my 1929 vibes again this weekend.

@danobrien__ @Psyched_Alpha Agree. Consistently good work. Insightful and generally measured.

Josh and his team have always covered this space with the rigor and healthy skepticism it deserves. Easily one of the most value-add subscriptions if you follow $DFTX $CMPS $ATAI $HELP

@JasperRidley Like many folks I’ve become disenchanted with the idea that you can trust markets to improve the lives of patients but there are some models out there that genuinely offer a win for all solution: good for patients, payors, and clinicians. $TOI is one of the best such examples.

Could not be more bullish on the Oncology Institute $TOI. Still clear that even sell side and substack-bro bulls don’t understand the company, as recent notes highlighting their “surprisingly low” MLRs and complete silence on today’s data release from $TEM enabled by TOI.

@flobrand I share your positive view on how the company appears to be approaching deal structure. I think the timing makes sense. And I’m thinking partnering with Lilly makes the most sense. Excited to see how it shakes out. $LLY $ATAI

11/ In our substack we also discussed which Big Pharma could become the second-mover after AbbVie, focusing on players with existing commercial-stage CNS franchises. Since then we heard at events in Boston and SF that Eli Lilly, which recently re-entered CNS, is showing interest also. Links in reply below 👇

1/ When @LarsWilde and I flagged increasing pharma interest in psychedelics as a very encouraging sign last year, some thought it was premature. Turns out it wasn’t. A thread 🧵 $ATAI $CMPS $DFTX $GHRS

@epicurus_zenon Agree with your read - and agree it is positive.

This cash infusion could fund the rest of their pipeline, for example VLS-01, EMP-01 and current Pre-Clinical products in TRD and Opioid Disorder. All of this without diluting shareholders. $ATAI

Initial reaction to the recent news of $ATAI: Very positive. After having shown that BPL-003 is highly scalable while at the same time being better than Spravato, it was likely that this would spark interest of big pharmaceutical companies.

The SEC filings don’t include enough detail to understand the underlying valuations but here is a screenshot from their roadshow.

I’ve been skeptical of the idea that we are at a market top - and do still feel like we will hit new highs on CAPE in this cycle - but this feels like decent evidence of a top. Reminds me of fund of fund of funds popularity in 2007. robinhood.com/us/en/ventures… $RVI $HOOD