Neek

@toddsaunders You see fragmentation, PE sees another wave of roll-ups.

I heard an incredible analogy from a VC friend that I can’t stop thinking about. “The moat in software was the cost of building software. And Claude Code just mass produced a bridge.” It’s wild when you think about the impact of this. The SaaS boom produced a few dozen billionaires and a bunch of zero sum winners. But the AI SaaS era will mass produce millionaires. There will be fewer ServiceTitans hitting $5B valuations, and instead there will be 50,000 companies doing $500K-$5M each, run by 1-3 people with deep expertise and huge margins. To be clear, I believe that the total value of software goes up, and the number of companies created goes up exponentially. But the number of people who capture the value also goes up 100x. I don’t believe in the “SaaS is dying” headline, I think it’s missing the point. It’s simply that the power of SaaS is changing hands.

@samtwtss Left aligned option ensures viewer sees everything without having to scroll.

here's the million dollar question: left alligned or centre? choose one👇

@FundamentEdge Careers built on apprenticeship (e.g., law, investing) face a complicated outlook, almost certainly leading to smaller teams. How we train juniors will evolve, but all roads lead back to a principled understanding of subject matter. AI is a tool, not an answer.

I completely agree with Alix. Learning the analog way and getting reps is a critical foundation before you augment with AI. Just like I can't debug code because I have no foundations as a coder, those who don't learn the analog way won't be able to debug a thesis or an earnings preview. In a game of inches like investing, that matters a lot. OGs can look at a company model and find the error in 60 seconds. This is a skill forged through many years and many reps. Bypassing the building of this muscle is a risky decision. In theory, younger investors should be leading the charge with AI augmentation for investing. In practice, I see so many young people building bridges to nowhere with complex coding tools that are technically intriguing but useless in practice. The most impressive investors I've seen in terms of AI augmentation are experienced investors who know exactly what problem to solve and why. And as a PM, managing a junior analyst churning out AI slop at 10x speed with false conviction sounds like a nightmare. I'd much rather have that junior analyst go slow, build rigor, and very selectively deploy AI in the early years. Crawl, walk, run.

@BoringBiz_ Couldn’t agree more, but I can understand the allure of high risk adjusted pay for those less risk-taking. Formulaic relationship between hours and compensation with zero equity risk. Grim prospects for the legal industry thanks to our friend Claude.

Have a few friends who have been restructuring and bankruptcy lawyers at Kirkland for a few years now I never thought it was possible, but they legitimately have worse hours and work life balance than investment bankers Talking around the clock work past midnights, weekends, and holidays. Very little room for personal life At some point, the money is not even worth it anymore

@JulianKlymochko IRR went out the window once fund lines came into vote.

The most important concept for allocators to understand in private equity is that IRRs are numbers used in marketing and not representative of investor retuns In the below example, a 20% "IRR" is actually equal to an 11.9% annualized return (and that's with generous assumptions)

@bucketshopcap @PaneerCap Disagree! Expert calls have more utility as you build a corpus of transcripts that can be queried with AI. Data is the limiting factor for AI and expert calls is a great way to get proprietary insights. Not a lot of enterprise value in being an expert call marketplace though.

@PaneerCap Why isn’t AlphaSense a long term zero? You can create this product yourself now. No one needs the useless expert calls, etc.

bamsec was an amazing product completely ruined by alphasense

@bonapartay Two things are true: 1) ‘Swearing’ has no basis. NWC can be validated numerically. 2) Compromise is how deals get consummated. Do you want to be right or effective?

Balance sheet says NWC is $1.2M. Seller swears it's $500k, I'm in the industry and know the true NWC are around $900k at this size based on my business. how do we solve this problem.

@RobTerrin @bonapartay You make a 338 election to treat a stock deal as an asset deal for tax purposes. Routine structure to capture the basis step up.

@bonapartay If you can do an asset deal, the depreciation step up should offset the risk. Downside is the seller will take a hit on depreciation recapture.

@ihavedumbtakes @taobanker @JaredKubin @FundamentEdge An important element of a contrarian view is understanding drivers of consensus.

@taobanker Just a guess at best, given the context that Colin focused on unique insights, but all the pod shops probably have the same access to that data so not as unique in that world. @JaredKubin or @FundamentEdge any insight?

how exactly is not looking at credit card data a good idea