²ndGenAmerica

Can it be shown that there is a set of "best" values? ("values" in the sense that they motivate behavior) I think i see a lot of assumptions that it can, but i also think the extent to which it isn't has ramifications that strike fatally to the core of culture, i.e. epistemology

@Dr_Gingerballs @MetacogniShane Reminds me of one of those brain games websites where they showed all these metrics like reaction time, working memory, pattern recognition or whatever going down with age EXCEPT [some word related thing they used as a proxy for] "crystallized knowledge" went up until ~dementia

@MetacogniShane I am a teacher and I have noticed in my mid 30’s and now 40’s I am becoming much better at generalization and abstraction. I like to think it’s out of necessity as the cognitive ability of the brain declines, it must become more efficient to keep sense of everything.

Brooks' statement below is 100% Grade-A 🐂💩. Fluid intelligence and working memory - the two cognitive abilities largely responsible for "synthesizing information" and "recognizing patterns" - both peak in your 20s and start to decline sometime in your 30s. Brooks is either severely misinformed or just bullshitting to sound smart (and to sell books). Either way, economists probably shouldn't be cosplaying as cognitive psychologists. conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/arthu…

@FroehlichThors1 "People" might be a gracious oversimplification of their code authors

The vast majorit of #crypto accounts with >100k followers: Lower, Higher, we are so back, crypto is a scam, Bitcoin follows ISM - not M2, Trendline is broken, Trendline seems to hold, HODL, liquidity heat map is expanding, the exhanges are grabbing the liquidity clusters, Binance is a fraud, Binance is the best what could happen to us etc. etc. Total car crash these people.

@MichaelTLoPiano @TheUltimator5 The Cypriot version is taken by them as a simple foible instead of a shameful transgression, sounds like

Yeah, that’s the thing. Western narcissism is particular is peculiar because it always comes with this hero complex as a result of our universalizing ethical defaults. Everyone has to be their own outwardly personal Christ a la Martin Luther or Rousseau. Living in Cyprus helped me understand how this not the norm outside Western-descended societies. Natives here genuinely *do not care* for any sort of universalizing. They will openly defend the people they know and like on points of emotional vanity, pride, or even to protect some arbitrary personal low-effort status quo with absolutely no concern for the broader effects on society. The result is that Narcissism is much more limited here, if sharper. But in our neck of the woods it inflates and expands like an all-consuming storm.

Median age of US Taxpayer in upper 50% (pays 97% of taxes): 55 = weighted toward late-career high-income earners Median age of US Taxpayer in lower 50% (pays 3% of taxes): 35 = weighted toward early-career young families just getting started Eliminating taxes entirely for the bottom 50% of taxpayers (through budget cuts/paying down US debt) will disproportionately aid and support young people with families, eventually boosting US total fertility rate and domestic economic growth overall. Why aren't we doing this? (Source: IRS data from tax year 2022)

@MichaelTLoPiano @TheUltimator5 Western narcissism in a word: ideologuery? Ideologism??

@MichaelTLoPiano @TheUltimator5 "I'm actually quite trustworthy, probably the most humblest person i know, and i NEVER exaggerate. Everyone else is full of hypocrisy so shameless that i won't even comment on it."

@TheUltimator5 “I deserve to be in charge because actually I am just a better person than other people and know what is right for everyone. I’m really pretty special.”

@Scobleizer @Shmall @sama @fdotinc "so i keep giving them more" Lol Regarding anything valuable in this life, "you always gotta make enough extra to feed the squirrels your NuTs!"

People take my videos without giving me credit. So I keep giving them more. Here is @Shmall who is showing me a new AI-run mobile phone. I think his system is way more interesting than what @sama showed me in a Mexican restaurant years ago here. At the @fdotinc startup festival. Which starts in two hours. I will have a lot more to say about what Sam is building soon.

@TheUltimator5 This is reasearch you can't pay for: mille grazi

I am making this indicator now. It is going to be so dumb... It literally takes that specific chart segment, finds the best fit match then plots the March-May 2024 fractal forwards... $GME

@BudgetsBananas "long-dated bonds,...already weak demand, with traditional buyers under-water, have a growing concern for its liquidity and thus its volatility" I thought liquidity was inverse to supply such that US supplying bonds increases liq. Is vol up more bc demand is in short supply?

I wrote about #treasuries, #rates & #yields over a year ago as a growing concern ⚠️ so if you are new to this issue, these risks, then give this paper/DD a read i wrote it for us apes, so kept it simple while focusing on the must-knows 🫡 #macro reddit.com/r/Superstonk/s…

if you didn't see this a month ago we're in a rising rates environment ⚠️ a crisis will hit, there will be no bond buyers and thus the USA will be forced to step in and do a debt jubilee USA optionality continues to bleed out by a thousand paper cuts youtu.be/mQY_h48GbQM?si…

@BudgetsBananas You don't follow @FroehlichThors1 ? i feel like you might enjoy some of his discussions.

@christweedt I've also noticed this. I'm not altogether unhappy about it (actually i think it's good to balance), but i don't like how it ignores the value of others' attention. We all have a role to play in influencing each other (no man is an island, maslow's needs, world's a stage, etc)

They know that giving people their attention entails a bid for the attention of the recipient, and they take it to be polite not to made a demand/bid for the attention of others. …

Changes in perceptions of politeness concerning attention is fascinating to me. Our (older) generation takes it to be polite to give others attention as a show of respect. The younger generation thinks the opposite...

@naiveanalyst7 If i have to pay back 20b in debt? More of a toss up, although i still believe the hype for the time being.

I don’t know when people will start to realize the massive value that this so-called “DiLuTiOn” actually brings to all shareholders. Let me say it one more time: would you rather own 100% of a $10B company, or 40% of a $60-70B combined entity in the bear case scenario, with enormous upside potential under Cohen’s leadership? The math is not complicated. The 40% is worth $24-28B, more than double what you own today. That’s what accretion means. Be retarded, but not that retarded. $GME

@resistancemoney My file for "rules of almond consumption" is already quite hefty, so this will be duly noted under "how to: eat nuts". Esp useful as part of my long term effort to get those Ls down.

My only rule for almond consumption is that you have to call them what Central Valley growers do: a-monds. The L is silent because when you shake them out of the tree, you shake the L out of them!

@ValueAddedRS @sneedweb Answer the question "sneed", if that is your real name

@sneedweb Nice picture, where'd you get it? 😉 x.com/ValueAddedRS/s…

🚨 Following sharp questions from GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen over its $2.4 billion marketing spend, eBay is now recruiting a Senior Manager of Marketing Effectiveness. $GME

@Dr_Gingerballs If "time is cost", I wonder how valuable it is to be able to query one "entity" for these kinds of "search" (not abstraction) problems rather than having to wait on researchers ...then whether brute forcing has any place in nationally subsidized research portfolios e.g. @NSF @NIH

The way to think about AI has always been cost/benefit. If I take the sum total impact of what AI has solved to date, and divide it by the cost, does that number look amazing or disgusting? Stated another way, do the aggregate revenues exceed the costs, and will they ever? Stated yet another way: will productivity go up or down? The Erdos solution going around today is very cool. If it feels like the model found a needle in a haystack, that's because it did. I don't say that to dismiss the accomplishment, but to put it in context. And to do that, you have to understand how the solver works. The strategy itself is actually not new, or even particularly innovative. At the heart is the same search type algorithms that have fueled advances in GO and Chess solvers. You have a wide parameter space, an objective function, and constraints. In chess, the parameter space is all of the moves that can happen in any game possible. The constraints are the size of the board and the rules. The objective is to checkmate. With enough compute, you can "play" every possible game in your head and choose the most productive moves. Moving the knight here leads to 80% winning outcomes vs 60% if I do not move the knight. This is similar to counting cards. Even similar to IBM Watson playing Jeopardy! The strategy is largely the same. What has changed is the amount of money spent on compute to solve problems. In the recent Erdos math solution, the solver is also simple. As far as I can see, the field of math is about creating lemmas (proven steps) and then combining existing lemmas to arrive at larger conclusions. Creating lemmas can be difficult, as it requires abstraction of some observable feature of the universe. Stringing lemmas together to come to a conclusion is also difficult, but in a different way. It's less about abstraction and more about search. It's a game of chess. So you train a model on every lemma that exists, as well as which lemmas can be strung together. Much like defining puzzle pieces to a puzzle with a lot of different possible valid solutions. You then define the objective (how many paths of equal length can I draw between points on a grid). Then you search through all of the possible combinations of lemmas that can optimize that number. So the most crucial aspect of this, and what appears to be somewhat hidden, is the cost of the solution. If it was $1, that is mind blowingly revolutionary. If it was $1M, that is starting to get pricy. If it was $10M+, that is a pretty inefficient use of compute. If all scientific breakthroughs are worth it no matter the computational cost, then we should stop running LLMs and start running density functional theory (DFT) calculations, which determine atomic interactions from quantum mechanics. We have barely begun to even begin to fathom how much compute we would need to brute force all possible large ensemble atomic interactions over relevant time scales. But the outcomes are also potentially revolutionary: finding better materials, better drugs, better, well, everything. The benefits and the costs are infinity, and dividing the two is pretty meaningless. And herein lies the problem. The models aren't getting any more efficient, they are just getting bigger. And they cannot continue to get bigger, and more expensive, forever if we are going economically solve large problems with brute force. The only way this strategy works is if the cost of the hardware and the electricity comes down by many orders of magnitude. Renting the compute of a 1 GW datacenter for $1000 per day would be truly revolutionary for scientific discovery. Just the electricity to run that datacenter would be about $4M. The chips themselves would cost another $1-10M. So the cost of compute and energy needs to drop 5,000-15,000x. That's like buying a GB100 for $5. So the hardware and energy costs are going in the wrong direction currently for any of this to make sense. The argument that brute force search is somehow going to get cheaper in software is the big lie that AI labs are pushing to lure investors into buying more compute. The models have always just been different flavors of brute force, and the bottleneck is the cost of hardware. I have seen two trends on X lately. The first is ballmaxxing, where people inject saline into their testicles to make the pouch appear larger. The second is the discussion of paradoxes (Yes, Jevon, you have a weird name and we are sick of Satya screaming it from his goon cave). Therefore, I propose The Gingerballmaxxing Paradox (GBP): where the cost of compute proportionally scales with desire to brute force solutions, while the long term success of the brute force strategy requires the cost of compute to drop. The logical conclusion of the GBP is that productivity will continue to decline as we pursue brute force into increasing hardware prices, and we cannot see the desired compute renaissance until the entire AI investment crashes and is liquidated for next to nothing. I, for one, am looking forward to the crash, and intend to try and capture compute actually cheap enough to brute force some valuable things.

@Dr_Gingerballs Ah here we are Thanks

@wtgowers "Paging @Dr_Gingerballs for rational critique...Dr.Gingerballs."

AI has now solved a major open problem -- one of the best known Erdos problems called the unit distance problem, one of Erdos's favourite questions and one that many mathematicians had tried. openai.com/index/model-di…

If you are a mathematician, then you may want to make sure you are sitting down before reading further.

@MarcoErmini @wtgowers An appeal to purity or authority? I guess it doesn't matter; is either less sloppy??

@wtgowers No real mathematician is scared by any of this slop.

@rnewton7777 well they should be at least 2 week's worth of time value cheaper, which will become proportionally more influential the closer we get to their expiry, although i don't have much of a model for determining their worth otherwise except for a "synthetics collapse in oct" premium

@resistancemoney @ts_hodl Lol no easy feat!

@ts_hodl Skill issue. Try saying more wrong things.

I’ll know we’ve reached AGI when I stop seeing “You’re right” at the beginning of every agent response and instead start seeing “You’re wrong and here’s why…”

@DarioCpx Ah I took her question more literally; i think we can trust Don Don to do as we children all used to do: just write IOUs on the backs of the paper money. It's nice to be the banker! Maybe you forget where that piece of paper went so you have to start over when things get messy...

Fair question here but overall I believe we already know the answer: Monopoly money will never run out till central banks global money printer will continue running