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Budget

@BudgetsBananas

20y engineer turned market researcher & trader🔬builds hedge fund quality risk models 🎢📉📊 analysis & trades in discord 🤖 not financial advice

Katılım Eylül 2024
63 Takip Edilen203 Takipçiler
Budget
Budget@BudgetsBananas·
RC, if we are of mice and men then let's get f'cking wet I think us #apes are tired of some sissy shit.. deep down back in '21 u were ferocious back in '20 kitty roared w grief today.. hersh has forgotten he still got a nut 🥜 much to be thankful 4 cz it works man go get wet
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Budget@BudgetsBananas·
$GME 🤘 for those who get it, like #hesher "Life is like walking in the rain... you can hide and take cover or you can just get wet" only apes and badass grandmas get it youtu.be/0qanF-91aJo?si…
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Budget@BudgetsBananas

what can I do, to be sure, in every outcome, that I still have choice. like eg sizing is important and should be consistent per cycle to the odds in an edge but a little paranoia, saved the cat, convex thinking, to plan for maintaining optionality so I can keep playing 🍻

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Budget@BudgetsBananas·
us10y down 1bps as of this writing, basically sideways while MOVE, the VIX for bonds, is down 4.44% @crossbordercap called it, we're seeing #yvc not so much #ycc #yieldvolatilitycontrol elia if booty 🍑 is too big to get through door without breaking, we just make door bigger
Budget@BudgetsBananas

I wrote about #treasuries, #rates & #yields over a year ago as a growing concern ⚠️ so if you are new to this issue, these risks, then give this paper/DD a read i wrote it for us apes, so kept it simple while focusing on the must-knows 🫡 #macro reddit.com/r/Superstonk/s…

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Budget@BudgetsBananas·
$GME Gamma Exposure ☢️🔋🧲 Look at this week's expiring Gamma Exposure #GEX on market maker's short $GME options Please, only the latest data, as it changes intraday 🥺 #GameStop #PowerToThePlayer
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Budget@BudgetsBananas·
Andy is right another way is to play both tails when there's high kurtosis I was joking on Reddit a couple weeks ago that "sometimes you just got to buy calls and hold your balls" 😁
Excess Returns@excessreturnpod

"What I've noticed in looking at bubble regimes is strategies that work most of the time don't work as well in bubble regimes, except for one." "Your alpha is probably less than it has been because your sample set that you've used to train your alpha, train your mind doesn't include very many bubble regimes." Andy Constan on how active investors can adjust in a bubble regime.

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Budget@BudgetsBananas·
@dotkrueger for argumentative sake, I'll play devil here. if AI output is similar to worker output then AI adds to worker supply inversely, demand would go down until prices correct (albeit inflation may hide that) not that companies necessarily have 5x more things to do so jobs will ⬇️
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Fred Krueger
Fred Krueger@dotkrueger·
AI will increase jobs. It's not like there is a finite amount of work to do, and AI will do most of it. That's the wrong metaphor. The right metaphor is AI will make everybody 5x more productive. That means instead of doing x things in a month, you do 5x. You hire more.
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Budget@BudgetsBananas·
@biancoresearch @DavidSacks for what it's worth.. #anecdote I was getting emails from recruiters for software engineering positions the last couple of months but more recently, it's been drier I have 30 years programming experience, 20 professional staff/principal level engineer w/ management experience
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Jim Bianco
Jim Bianco@biancoresearch·
@DavidSacks Your chart is a few months out of date. The current data (through May 15) shows that software job postings are at a three-year high. The demand for coders is growing by the week.
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David Sacks
David Sacks@DavidSacks·
Q: How are job postings for software engineers rising rapidly despite AI agents automating coding? A: Because there’s far more code to manage than ever before. We’re already seeing a 14x YoY increase in GitHub commits, and it’s accelerating. AI has dramatically lowered the cost of writing code, so it’s now being used across far more businesses, applications, and use cases. We’re at the beginning of a massive productivity boom driven by the proliferation of bespoke software throughout the entire economy. Coding has been AI’s breakout use case this year. The fact that it’s increased demand for software engineers — rather than decreased it — should call into question the entire “AI will cause mass job loss” narrative.
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Budget@BudgetsBananas·
#macro fork in the road on one hand, if Warsh walks his talk, he'll have the Fed sell off the balance sheet, removing liquidity from markets 🐻 that would create wiggle room for cutting rates ✂️ but these days very few walk their talk so be like water 🌊 follow the risks
Fred Krueger@dotkrueger

HT Bitcoin Therapist

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Budget@BudgetsBananas·
if you didn't see this a month ago we're in a rising rates environment ⚠️ a crisis will hit, there will be no bond buyers and thus the USA will be forced to step in and do a debt jubilee USA optionality continues to bleed out by a thousand paper cuts youtu.be/mQY_h48GbQM?si…
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Bloomberg@business

Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called on US authorities to prepare a back-up plan in order to avert a potential collapse in demand for Treasuries bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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Budget@BudgetsBananas·
@2ndGenAmerica more so buy side liquidity for Treasuries so introducing further bond supply is difficult for the market to absorb hence Treasury buybacks as USA runs greater deficits, gov has to print more Treasury supply into an already buyer exhausted market & there lies a volatility risk
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Investment Wisdom
Investment Wisdom@InvestingCanons·
"When investing, pessimism is your friend, euphoria the enemy." — Warren Buffett
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Budget@BudgetsBananas·
$GME Gamma Exposure ☢️🔋🧲 Look at this week's expiring Gamma Exposure #GEX on market maker's short $GME options Please, only the latest data, as it changes intraday 🥺 #GameStop #PowerToThePlayer
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Keşfet

@crossbordercap @profplum99 @dotkrueger @ryancohen @biancoresearch @DavidSacks @2ndGenAmerica @FroehlichThors1