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NaiveAnalyst
171 posts
NaiveAnalyst
@naiveanalyst7
Amateur analyst with a strong conviction play. Occasional deep-dives on what catches my eye. Do your own research. $GME
Katılım Eylül 2021
59 Takip Edilen2K Takipçiler
What if the $EBAY acquisition is the “Kansas City Shuffle”,the WSJ trolled us, the news came out just to justify a bunch of share repurchases to cover $GME FTDs, and we’re all just a bunch of retards?
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@naiveanalyst7 The only 2 things that refute this VERY possible explanation are the delayed shareholder vote SEC docs and the fact that the accuracy of these types of articles from WSJ are actually pretty high.
But I'm ready to be hurt again. Signed, GME Masochist...
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@zebular0 @Morty1531 @rnewton7777 Yeah, I also thought about the @rnewton7777 model and find the perfect timing with the swap extremely interesting. I’d prefer B tbh, but it’s a bias of course 😅
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Literally the only thing that makes this whole thing sketchy (or Cohen planned around it knowing) Thursday night around 9PM what looked to be a swap occurred because some brokerages reported a blip to like $3.60. This is in alignment with the swap coming due that @rnewton7777 has been talking about. So either A it's a bs news coverage to cover for the swap being completed or B Cohen is using that along with news to push it harder.
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@naiveanalyst7 @Morty1531 Or it's bs and Cohen hits us with a share offering Monday morning 😆 (I don't actually believe that)
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@Morty1531 @naiveanalyst7 Good point Mort…and yeah everybody is plagued with recency bias including me…that it’s BS or RC dilutes but also MOASS could be happening…no sleep this weekend 😂
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@Morty1531 I agree. I wrote this only because it all seems too good to be true 😅
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@naiveanalyst7 I would like to think GameStop would have put out a presser refuting the article if that were the case, seeing how much attention the article received.
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@90Payan While it is highly probable that $GME would significantly re-rate if the announcement were confirmed, I prefer to stay cautious in my analysis. Thank you for your comment.
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„The dilution is significant: existing GME shareholders would see their per-share value drop approximately 34.5% in the immediate aftermath of the announcement, assuming no market re-rating.“
That’s nonsense.
There will be of course a market re-rating, because $GME will gain additional value. So makes no sense to calculate with the 11B market cap after potential dilution.
NaiveAnalyst@naiveanalyst7
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@GunnecracksSA Thank you sir. But I will continue to use that disclaimer regardless of the compliments I get 😅
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@naiveanalyst7 Ps. I don't think you're stupid, or sharing dumb opinions.
Domo Capital wouldn't refer to you, if you seemed like a tinfoil grifter. JMO.
Eeklo, België 🇧🇪 English
Who knows? Maybe management won’t dilute because the $9B war chest + $2B from converts + undisclosed derivative exposure collateralized by $700M might be enough to finance the acquisition.
I have a swing position to trade the momentum, and shares I will never sell. Be ready to every possible scenario.
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@naiveanalyst7 @DanRunner42 Are you saying buy the rumour as it walks up into 30s and going into AGM, and then sell the news since RC will need to dilute to raise $$ and the will be ideal loading moment?
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Article in the Quoted Tweet speculates that if $GME were to acquire 51% of $EBAY in an LBO, they would still need to issue 236M of new shares, diluting the price down to $16/share 😭 Well...shit.... Ebay ain't cheap, and holds a ton of Debt.... Monday will be interesting.
NaiveAnalyst@naiveanalyst7
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@GunnecracksSA You have a point. The dilution is just a speculative thesis, but the acquisition could be potentially financed with different sources as I outlined in another post.
NaiveAnalyst@naiveanalyst7
In my article I speculated about new shares to be issued to finance part of the acquisition, but take it for what it is: speculation. Perhaps the $9B war chest, the $2B from warrants, and the cash derived from the undisclosed derivative exposure (collateralized by $700M, plus other sources) will be enough to avoid issuing new shares I will patiently wait for GameStop to make official announcement, as we all know those headlines could be a “buy the rumor sell the news” event used to justify sudden stock price increases. Again, I’m just stupid, learning out loud sharing my dumb opinions.
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Interesting and informative write-up.
The only question I have with this scenario is #GME $GME issuing shares (at $25 in your example) below the conversion prices of the convertible notes, and especially below the strike price of the warrants. That doesn't make sense to me as GameStop will add another $1,88 B on the balance sheet if the warrants are exercised. Diluting shareholders before that only reduces the possibility of getting those warrants exercised.
Michael J. Burry explained this was one of the reasons he bought more GameStop shares as well. He expected that merger/acquisition news could rally the shares, increasing the likelihood of the warrants being exercised.
Do you see any benefit for Gamestop if they would dilute before the stock price reaches the exercise price of the warrants?
Eeklo, België 🇧🇪 English
@PapiToolow @DanRunner42 The dilution is just a speculative thesis, but the acquisition could be potentially financed with different sources as I outlined in another post
NaiveAnalyst@naiveanalyst7
In my article I speculated about new shares to be issued to finance part of the acquisition, but take it for what it is: speculation. Perhaps the $9B war chest, the $2B from warrants, and the cash derived from the undisclosed derivative exposure (collateralized by $700M, plus other sources) will be enough to avoid issuing new shares I will patiently wait for GameStop to make official announcement, as we all know those headlines could be a “buy the rumor sell the news” event used to justify sudden stock price increases. Again, I’m just stupid, learning out loud sharing my dumb opinions.
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@naiveanalyst7 @DanRunner42 What's the point of the warrants then?
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So many questions!
Are the rumors true? We'll see! And probably pretty quick. If GameStop has been building in a position on Ebay, that position should be up in value now which is great. Can the company pull off a leveraged buyout for $44 billion + premium? How?
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The number of people trolling $GME on this potential $EBAY acquisition, thinking it’s still just a meme stock and wondering how they would finance the deal, is mind-blowing to me.
Have you not been paying attention to what this company has become?
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@champagneflu I understand your point of view. But as I discussed in my article a 100% $Ebay acquisition by $GME is out of the question imho. That’s why I covered a 51% controlling stake acquisition scenario. Feel free to take a look at it.
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@naiveanalyst7 Im all in gamestop.
eBay is 45+
This would dilute gamestop shareholders to hell, including Ryan Cohen.
This is not going to happend, this is WSJ-goyslop bullcrap to defend the FTD being forced to liquidate yesterday.
Be retarded, but not that retarded.
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Well written. Thank you.
Dilution is a big concern, but the understanding for tolerating is the belief that the upside is worth the short-term pain.
While acknowledging the warrant dividend, I think it'll be fair to say RC should reward loyal shareholders after this. 🤞🏻
NaiveAnalyst@naiveanalyst7
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