Rick Spencer II

I've been doing this work for over a decade and covered multiple conflicts, but I don't remember a time when open source investigators and fact-checkers have been this busy. The sheer scale of this war between the US, Israel and Iran, the volume of major daily incidents happening across the Middle East that need to be investigated, and the rampant spread of misinformation on social media are beyond any one person's capacity to cover. And that's why the ever increasing community of online investigators, geolocaters, and fact-checkers on this platform are vital to understanding major global events like this war. Make sure to follow their work!

This was a very good event: youtu.be/wg94UXgY0a4

I tried to put together an update of the status of the Russian strategic forces. My estimate is 575 launchers/1530 warheads (can "upload" to about 2100). It appears that R-36M2/SS-18 has been withdrawn. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/01/n… Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianfor…

💬 Kennan Conversations: Maduro’s Fall and Russia’s Response Join @HannaNotte and @stephenwertheim for a discussion on the implications of recent U.S. action in Venezuela and what it means for Russia’s global foreign policy and its approach to Ukraine. Moderated by @mkimmage RSVP Now: zoom.us/webinar/regist… #KennanConversations #KennanInstitute #Venezuela

The Kennan Institute returns as an independent, non-partisan institute entering a new era of scholarship and statecraft 🎥Watch members of our community reflect on the past, present and future of research and policy analysis on Russia, Ukraine, the South Caucasus & Central Asia

@Hexed_Tech I was not. Well, there's a first.

Is MAGA outraged that a Canadian team made it to the World Series?

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukrainian drones score first confirmed destruction of Russian Iskander-M missile system armyrecognition.com/focus-analysis…

“Talks failed and snapback happening,” a senior E3 diplomat texts me

BREAKING 1/ The U.S. Army’s Typhon Missile System has been deployed to Japan for the first time. Unveiled at Iwakuni base, Typhon can launch Tomahawk cruise missiles (range ~1,600 km) — enough to strike across the East China Sea and into parts of China. This marks a major shift in U.S. deterrence posture in East Asia.

And so Zapad-2025 begins!

Probably shouldn't say, "get it while it's hot," since nukes are hot for a very long time, nor, "get it before it blows up," since that's just bad taste. How about, "clock is ticking, don't sleep on this one..." sheesh. No good clichés... IYKYK, this will be a good read.

4K Images of the Chinese Hypersonic Anti-ship Missiles.

🚨 BREAKING: China showcased the LY-1, a massive directed-energy laser system (DEW) during the military parade 🇨🇳 — research suggests such systems have the capability to engage and potentially destroy hostile missiles, drones, and even fighter jets in flight .

🇨🇳 BREAKING: China unveils the YJ-17 hypersonic missile at the 80th WWII Victory Day parade.

mirv nk en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202509…

RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR POLICY IN TIMES OF GLOBAL TRANSFORMATION: REGISTRATION FOR WEBINARS IS OPEN This fall, the Center for Energy and Security Studies (CENESS) launches a series of webinars, “Russia’s Nuclear Policy and the Nonproliferation Regime in a Shifting World Order”. 1/12

Security guarantees come in lots of shapes and sizes. But let’s be clear: there’s not going to be a US or European commitment to go to war with Russia if it reinvades Ukraine. I’m all for commitments to back a ceasefire. But this conversation is becoming divorced from reality.

Rarely has a major summit been so significant, hastily prepared, and uncertain in outcome. My latest for @IISS_org 👇 iiss.org/online-analysi…

An interesting take on possible arms control outcomes from today. IMHO, returning to New START implementation would be the quickest and easiest outcome if arms control is really on the agenda. The treaty is on the books for 6 more months.