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The MayorModel is all updated for when this November election is over and #NYC can start talking mayor
#NewYork #NewYorkCity #mayor #Election2024
2xparked.substack.com/p/2xparked-39
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2xParked
2.8K posts
2xParked
@2xParked
Data and NYC! occasionally baseball, but that is data.
Brooklyn, NY Katılım Ağustos 2020
1K Takip Edilen74 Takipçiler
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Introducing Free Expression, a newsletter from the Wall Street Journal Opinion pages. With a bit more room to explore between the lines, editor @MattHennessey breaks down what readers can expect. Subscribe to Free Expression today: on.wsj.com/4rP8xXE
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Preregistering a few things before we get #NYCmayor results tonight… 🧵
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@NateSilver538 Does it matter that the poll excludes “somewhat likely” voters?
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Markets reacted strongly to the new Emerson poll. Without having built a polling average here I can't say whether this is an overreaction or an underreaction. Intuitively, I'd lean toward slight overreaction. *But* recency matters a *lot* in primary polls as things change fast.
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No full post, though I'll probably write about the mayor's race again once the results are in. But one of the nuances of RCV is that negative campaigning can backfire just because it puts your name more in voters' minds and therefore they'll list you *somewhere* on their ballot.
Mike Pesca@pescami
@NateSilver538 got it in you to do a late breaking post on the history of polling for ranked choice outcomes? Seems a lot harder than for first-past the- post Mamdani takes the lead in NYC mayoral election: poll pix11.com/news/politics/…
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What does the papal conclave and an Aussie election tell us about the NYC mayor race?
What if our mayor candidates were Seinfeld characters?
Where does the race stand?
2xparked.substack.com/p/2xparked-44
#nyc #mayor
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What would it take for Eric Adams to be re-elected now that he is an Independent candidate
2xparked.substack.com/p/2xparked-43
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There is a general lack of understanding of macroeconomics. This is not meant to be insulting. PhDs in micro will admit they don’t fully understand macro. The world behaves differently when you raise the price in 1 store vs raise in all stores in a region in a small market
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Gov @andrewcuomo should be seen as the early favorite, but we are months away from the polls being stable. #nycmayor
2xparked.substack.com/p/2xparked-42
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I am hoping Saquon has a great game, like the guy a lot. But @curtmenefee , I will never root for the Eagles
#SuperBowlLIX #fox @michaelstrahan
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@NYCTSubway @Bobby4Brooklyn @MTA Any incident. Waited 30 minutes (though clock said coming in 1). Nothing came so had to leave
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Now, the @MTA announces that the F Train won't be stopping at the 7th Ave station. This is terrible communication. The announcement says to take the G without any information on when it will arrive.
Weekends aren't an “off” period, especially during the holidays.
Assemblymember Robert Carroll@Bobby4Brooklyn
.@MTA this is unacceptable. With these wait times, trying to take my son into the city becomes much harder. Note* The countdown clock was down when we first arrived, so we will probably wait for more than 30 minutes.
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As a Giants fan, I am still less devastated about Saquon leaving than I am about the Eagles doing well.
- Giants weren’t going to playoffs
- Still a high propensity for injury
- 2 years ago it was more about Jones playing well
- his value as a receiver has not recovered
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