Nathaniel Rakich

The airport code for the Palm Beach airport will change from PBI to DJT on July 9th. This follows the airport being renamed for President Trump. Announcement in the federal register: federalregister.gov/documents/2026…

#BREAKING: The US Supreme Court has denied a stay in the Virginia Redistricting Referendum Case.

It's likely not going to have everything (and the interactivity that you got used on on 538 is likely not duplicated) - but the Way Back Machine has a lot of the 538 content archived. 183K snapshots starting back in 2008

@BenShindel They're entirely inaccessible now.

@baseballot Wait holy shit, the pages are inaccessible entirely? Or just invisible unless you go directly to the url?

ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge.

@LPDonovan I’m working on something like this, but of course, it’s all highly speculative. Like, Dems *could* go for 52-0 in CA, but they might decide they don’t want to go that far for various reasons.

Has anybody run the numbers on a mutually maximalist map if every state with the balance of power and legal framework for partisan redistricting did so?

A lot of Democrats are willing to sacrifice Black voting power to beat the GOP. In a new POLITICO Poll, a plurality of Dems say the party should counter Republican gerrymandering, even if it means reducing the number of majority-minority districts. 🔗 politi.co/3PkA70E

Gov. Jeff Landry has signed the bill setting Nov. 3 election date for US House seats. @Louisiana_sos announced the bill signing. The US House races will be held under an open primary system, with Dec. 12 runoff if needed. Candidate qualifying period will be Aug. 5-7. #lalege

Breaking: Gov. Kemp has called state lawmakers for a special session on June 17 to reshape both how Georgians vote and to redraw the state’s political maps after last month’s U.S. Supreme Court decision for the 2028 election. #gapol ajc.com/politics/2026/…

@cars0000n Nice, say hi if you see me!

@baseballot I’m here too!

I’m at #AAPOR, the annual pollster conference, and Andrew Mercer from Pew Research Center had a great proposal for a more accurate margin-of-error statistic called Margin of Total Error.

#BREAKING: Multiple sources have confirmed Governor McMaster will be calling lawmakers back to the State House Friday morning for a special session to address redrawing SC’s congressional map. The governor is expected to make an official announcement later. @foxcarolinanews

Andrew proposed modifying margin of error based on historical error ranges. It’s an elegant solution that seems to be more accurate/honest! But the new MOTEs are unfortunately very wide—like 8-9 points.

Basically, traditional margin of error only accounts for one type of error (sampling), not things like non-response bias. As a result, traditional MoE doesn’t deliver on its promise to cover 95% of scenarios.

🚨 TODAY: @nationaljournal has convened a LIVE virtual panel to talk all things REDISTRICTING in this brave new redrawn world. Featuring insights from: 🗳️ @ercovey 🗳️ @JacobRubashkin 🗳️ @jamesd0wns You won't want to miss it. Link to sign up in the replies.

@imthewalruz I still think it’s Solid R, but you’re right that I should have qualified it.

@baseballot Sure it's nebraska, but no chance for the D in the general?

Upset brewing? With 30% of the vote counted in the GOP primary for Nebraska secretary of state, Scott Petersen is leading incumbent Bob Evnen 52–48%.

The AP has called it for Petersen. He’ll be one of the farthest-right secretaries of state in the country when he takes office next year.

Petersen has called the state’s voting machines insecure, promoted hand-counting, and wants to restrict mail voting.

@JesseBarstow Ah, but they wanted to! In this case, Missouri will probably say their hands are tied, because it suits their political ends.

@baseballot Is it too close to the primary? The Supreme Court just allowed Alabama and Louisiana to redistrict a week before the election.

This is big. MO’s new gerrymander can stay in place for now despite signatures being filed for a ballot initiative to repeal it.