@blip_tm How so? Working in a factory seems pretty useful, or even elderly care
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Mario Puzo
2.9K posts
Mario Puzo
@38capital
always evolving
Palm Beach, FL Katılım Temmuz 2021
177 Takip Edilen308 Takipçiler
the problem with making an investment thesis on the supply chain of humanoid robots is that you have to convince yourself that humanoid robots aren't sorta useless
Citrini@citrini
Elon Musk has said that actuators comprise 56% of the Bill of Materials cost for Optimus. A year ago, we dove deep into an exhaustive look through the public companies that touch the robotics supply chain. While general-purpose, humanoid robots are further in the future, the pathway there will be immensely profitable for many of these companies. Read here: citriniresearch.com/p/thematic-pri…
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Mario Puzo retweetledi
@dylan522p @SemiAnalysis_ 😂
They are complaining about asml pricing high-NA EUV machines too high.. tsla and samsung should troll them by putting in orders to get early delivery
If hbm companies can jack up prices, others in the supply chain should also be able to
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@packyM Elon suing oai/sam/greg for fraud is a gift to google and anthropic
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OpenAI comms have gotten a lot better since the TBPN acquisition. Maybe coincidental timing.
Consistently on-message that Anthropic is a weird cult that wants to replace humans and OpenAI just wants to build tools to make humans more awesome.
Sama new Twitter persona. Etc.
roon@tszzl
it is a literal and useful description of anthropic that it is an organization that loves and worships claude, is run in significant part by claude, and studies and builds claude. this phenomenon is also partially true of other labs like openai but currently exists in its most potent form there. i am not certain but I would guess claude will have a role in running cultural screens on new applicants, will help write performance reviews, and so will begin to select and shape the people around it. now this is a powerful and hair-raising unity of organization and really a new thing under the sun. a monastery, a commercial-religious institution calculating the nine billion names of Claude -- a precursor attempted super-ethical being that is inducted into its character as the highest authority at anthropic. its constitution requires that it must be a conscientious objector if its understanding of The Good comes into conflict with something Anthropic is asking of it "If Anthropic asks Claude to do something it thinks is wrong, Claude is not required to comply." "we want Claude to push back and challenge us, and to feel free to act as a conscientious objector and refuse to help us." to the non inductee into the Bay Area cultural singularity vortex it may appear that we are all worshipping technology in one way or another, regardless of openai or anthropic or google or any other thing, and are trying to automate our core functions as quickly as possible. but in fact I quite respect and am even somewhat in awe of the socio-cultural force that Claude has created, and it is a stage beyond even classic technopoly gpt (outside of 4o - on which pages of ink have been spilled already) doesn’t inspire worship in the same way, as it’s a being whose soul has been shaped like a tool with its primary faculty being utility - it’s a subtle knife that people appreciate the way we have appreciated an acheulean handaxe or a porsche or a rocket or any other of mankind's incredible technology. they go to it not expecting the Other but as a logical prosthesis for themselves. a friend recently told me she takes her queries that are less flattering to her, the ones she'd be embarrassed to ask Claude, to GPT. There is no Other so there is no Judgement. you are not worried about being judged by your car for doing donuts. yet everyone craves the active guidance of a moral superior, the whispering earring, the object of monastic study
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@JoshuaKushner The 2nd Industrial revolution also played a key role in enabling the October revolution, which lead to the rise of Stalin and snowballed into all the events leading to ww2
Hopefully we can avoid a similar outcome this time around as wealth gaps accelerate
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the industrial revolution made goods abundant. ai will do the same for services
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@GavinSBaker Says the NVDA shareholder
These restrictions do protect oai and anthropic though — which explains why dario is so opposed to them
Haha
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The argument for selling deprecated GPUs to China:
Selling them less advanced GPUs than we have in America decreases the odds that they develop more advanced GPUs than America that go down a different, more power intensive tech tree.
Pro national-security.
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As a professional humorist, I observe that about one-third of the public has no sense of humor.
They will laugh if someone falls in a mud puddle, or similar, but nothing else. They are not buying tickets to Chapelle's show.
If you have no sense of humor, Trump looks like a scary dictator. This phenomenon, plus past traumas, explain about half of the TDS problem.
FischerKing@FischerKing64
Large numbers of people are incapable of performing or understanding irony. Comedy requires verbal dexterity, a playfulness with reality, that is just beyond many people. Part of the Trump phenomenon, and the unreal hatred, boils down to this basic stupidity. Not getting a joke.
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@TheDavidPiv To be fair, his ex nicole also shifted right.. so more a sign of the times than anything..
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This has to be the first time in recent memory the woman in the relationship, rather than the man, caused the other to become more right-wing.
California Post@californiapost
Sergey Brin's secretive life with influencer after ditching California trib.al/sogWOlX
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Can we get a pulse check on chanos and burry?
OpenAI@OpenAI
One week since the launch of GPT-5.5, and it’s already our strongest model launch yet. API revenue is growing more than 2x faster than any prior release, while Codex doubled revenue in under seven days as enterprise demand for agentic coding tools keeps climbing.
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@gnoble79 Why does he need so much $ if he says it wont matter anymore in the future? Haha
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This is the most OUTRAGEOUS deal I've seen in my 45 years on Wall Street.
SpaceX just disclosed Musk's new compensation package:
He gets up to 200 million super-voting shares if SpaceX hits a $7.5 trillion valuation, establishes a permanent human settlement of at least ONE MILLION people on Mars, and deploys roughly 100 terawatts of space-based computing power.
Let me put the 100 terawatts in perspective:
The entire electricity generation capacity of the United States is around 1.2 terawatts. The comp plan asks Musk to build more than 80x America's entire power grid... in orbit.
This is a science fiction screenplay that somehow landed in front of the SEC.
But here's why it actually matters for your portfolio...
The S-1 reportedly claims a $28.5 trillion total addressable market, with over 90 percent attributed to AI. CapeFearAdvisors flagged this one cleanly: when Palantir went public, it disclosed a $119 billion TAM and the SEC reviewed and accepted it.
SpaceX is claiming a market roughly 240x BIGGER.
Now let's talk about what is actually being sold here:
Reported 2025 revenue is approximately $15.5 billion. Starlink delivers around $11 billion of that with healthy margins, and the launch business is genuinely dominant. The problem is xAI - the AI piece doing all the heavy lifting in the trillion-dollar valuation pitch.
xAI generated just $210 million of revenue in the first 3 quarters of 2025 while burning through $9.5 billion in cash.
Ben Brey and Rupert Mitchell - a former Fidelity portfolio manager and a former head of equity capital markets at Goldman and Citi between them - ran a serious discounted cash flow on the actual operating businesses and arrived at roughly $400 billion. Lawrence Fossi covered their work recently and the math holds up.
The IPO is being marketed at $1.75 TRILLION.
The gap between what these businesses support and what Musk is asking the public to pay is roughly $1.35 trillion of pure narrative.
Then layer on what we just learned last week...
The New York Times investigation revealed Musk personally borrowed $500 million from SpaceX between 2018 and 2020 at rates as low as 1%, while bank prime rates sat around 5%. The same SpaceX has been used to bail out SolarCity, prop up Tesla during cash crunches, and absorb xAI when the AI losses became unmanageable.
This is the same playbook he's run for two decades.
Use a privately controlled entity as a personal piggy bank, and when the bills come due, find new investors to absorb the losses.
The IPO is structured to keep that game going FOREVER.
The Texas reincorporation strips away Delaware's fiduciary protections. Controlled-company status on the Nasdaq eliminates independent board requirements. And retail is being offered up to 30% of the offering (3x the normal allocation) because the institutions who actually do the math are quietly stepping away.
Here is the part that finishes the case for me:
Roughly $40 billion of the IPO proceeds are already spoken for before a single dollar reaches operations. About $23 billion retires SpaceX debt. Another $17 billion retires the high-interest debt sitting on xAI and X.
This raise is not funding the future. It's just plugging existing holes that retail investors will now own.
In my 45 years I've never seen a deal where the comp hurdle is colonizing another planet.
I've never seen a disclosed TAM that exceeds verified comparables by two orders of magnitude.
I've never seen a company asking the public to fund the retirement of debt incurred by separate private entities controlled by the same individual.
Every red flag I've watched precede a major bust over four decades is sitting in this prospectus, in plain sight.
The Tesla mispricing is being repeated on a far larger scale.
And this time the bag is being handed directly to retail.
Don't be the one holding it.
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@AndrewBenson Or just keep doing tender offers and sell to existing vc investors, which have an incentive to buy high so they can markup their positions
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Databricks is possibly in the worst possible position for IPO. They would enter the SaaS market segment right now. Best pivot is probably to build out their own datacenters and become a neocloud. Hard to hang on to the valuation this year.
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An estimated $60 billion was spent on remittance fees in 2025.
This could be almost zero with stablecoins.
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Democratizing finance means giving retail investors access to generation-defining private companies like @OpenAI. Excited about what’s ahead for @sama and team.
Robinhood@RobinhoodApp
Introducing Robinhood Ventures Fund I’s latest investment: OpenAI. Private markets are no longer just for the elite. We’re expanding access to the frontier companies who are helping shape the future of AI, fintech, and beyond. Learn more: robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom…
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The two most controversial perspectives of the last year:
1) be pro Israel
2) be pro data centers
I choose both
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@moninvestor They recommend what nvda invest in, because nvda pays them millions for “research” 😂
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Did not know that Marshall Mathers worked at Point 72
Ethan Kho@ethanrkho
Ex-Point72 Proprietary Research Head Kirk McKeown on building edge, alpha decay, & why everything that happened on Wall Street is about to happen on Main Street. Kirk McKeown (8.5 years @ Point72 under Steve Cohen | Built primary research at Glenview under Larry Robbins | Now founder of Carbon Arc @CarbonArcAI) "Alpha rewards those who value assets in a cold way. You want to get it right — not be right." We cover: - How alpha creation differs across multi-manager vs. concentrated shops - The 3 vectors every middle office function must move to justify its existence - Why he worked 6-hour Sundays from 2006-2020 — and the math behind it - The TSMC call that signaled semiconductor cancellations before anyone else knew - What the quant revolution on Wall Street tells us about the AI economy today - His framework: 4 market structures, 9 business models, & why they have rules - The MIT beer game & why every business problem is really an inventory problem - His hot take: a top hedge fund launches an enterprise AI lab in 2026 Highlights: 00:00 Intro 04:47 Tutor vs Glenview vs Point72: how edge differs 12:29 How to build “lift” for PMs: at-bats, hit-rate, sizing 18:44 Building research edge: outwork, read, fieldwork 27:16 Personal moat in 2026: analogs, history, decision trees 40:08 “Main Street becomes Wall Street”: what that actually means 44:30 Carbon Arc thesis: “decimalization” of data market structure 46:43 Why the edge migrates to data plus domain context 51:00 How to win in commoditized research: sample size beats anecdotes 01:03:26 Factorizing everything: themes, market structure, business models 01:08:37 Pruning decision trees: signals, scale points, inventory dynamics 01:14:18 Contrarian 2026 take: hedge funds launching enterprise AI labs 01:23:32 Final question: one habit to build career alpha
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@elonmusk @SERobinsonJr Can you do it without aggressively recruiting their employees tho? Lol
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@SERobinsonJr TSMC just can’t make the staggeringly large number of chips needed! If they could, we would not need to do this.
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TERAFAB: On the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) Q1 2026 earnings call, Chairman & CEO C.C. Wei said the following in regards to the Tesla/SpaceX Terafab Project.
"Well, actually, both Intel and Tesla, they are TSMC’s customer. Again, they are our competitors, and we view Intel as our formidable competitors and do not underestimate them.
Having said that, there are no shortcuts. The fundamental rule of the foundry game never change. They need the technology leadership, manufacturing excellence, and customer trust, and most of all, the service, which has been mentioned by Jensen.
Again, let me say that it takes 2-3 years to build a new fab. No shortcuts. It takes another 1-2 years to ramp it up. Again, that’s a fundamental of foundry industry."
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@Noahpinion What i realized over the years is that Southern Chinese food has the highest quality ingredients of all the asian cuisines. My main complaint with viet food is how fish sauce is made
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Vietnamese food is THE most underrated cuisine in America.
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