@jposamen @marcportermagee It doesn't even say that. It just says that the outcome effect wasn't statistically significant.
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3rdMoment 🏛️
13.4K posts
3rdMoment 🏛️
@3rdMoment
Skewed perspectives on random topics
West Coast Katılım Şubat 2011
1.5K Takip Edilen862 Takipçiler
@marcportermagee Says it improve course planning but not course outcomes. Vague.
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This seems like a lot of words to say that the tool didn't work. Advanced course participation and completion did not increase.
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@Y_Contributor @avidseries Probably huge differences by major though.
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@avidseries Since the University of California no longer requires the SAT for admission the collapse of academic rigor is inevitable.
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The left: We must eliminate the SAT because it only predicts the socioeconomic status of your parents.
Study after study: Nope.
i/o research@iointelresearch
In a study involving 155,191 students from 41 American colleges and universities, SAT scores predicted academic performance even after socioeconomic status (SES) was controlled. SES added negligible additional predictive power. files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED562…
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3rdMoment 🏛️ retweetledi
@bryan_caplan In my own experience, this is true of the arts but absolutely false for the sciences. Watched plenty of AP chem & physics students who scored 3 - 4s get their asses handed too them in orgo or physics II after thinking they had the pre-reqs down through AP credits.
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3rdMoment 🏛️ retweetledi
@rieszspieces OK but then i am confident there are many, many universities (including so-called "flagships") offering non-salt-worthy caclulus classes.
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this is definitely not true for any undergrad calc class worth its salt
Bryan Caplan@bryan_caplan
APs are getting easier, but they are still highly meritocratic compared to not just high school grades but college grades. Most students who get an A in a college class would be lucky to get a 3 on the corresponding AP.
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@iammattduff @mattyglesias What do you mean by brownian motion?
(If you mean sampling error, you shold say sampling error. And sampling error won't produce a stochastic process like brownian motion.)
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@mattyglesias or perhaps you're drawing conclusions from brownian motion
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Parental satisfaction with their child's actual school reached its low point in 2013, which was also the year that NAEP scores peaked.
Things have gotten worse since then, and people seem somewhat happier with the worse results.
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3rdMoment 🏛️ retweetledi
Visited American Indian Smithsonian and about 1/3 of the exhibit space was on broken treaties. Very little about pre-Columbian lifestyles or how the Columbian exchange affected lifestyles in ways that were not coercive.
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@truthnow24 @CasualVince @KelseyTuoc @mattyglesias Also they need motivation to do more math after already spending an hour getting demotivated by school math class ..
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@CasualVince @KelseyTuoc @mattyglesias I don’t think just any kid can do AoPS. They need to have a strong aptitude for math to get the most out of it.
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I feel like nobody knows this but American math performance at the very top end has actually gotten better even while everyone else has gotten worse.
the74million.org/article/how-12…
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3rdMoment 🏛️ retweetledi
APs are getting easier, but they are still highly meritocratic compared to not just high school grades but college grades.
Most students who get an A in a college class would be lucky to get a 3 on the corresponding AP.
Michael Torres@MindofTorres
This is what grade inflation looks like. AP exams suddenly became easier. So when your local school, district, or state touts record AP participation and passage rates ... now you know why. Source: fordhaminstitute.org/national/comme…
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@TruueDiscipline @KirkegaardEmil Yes obviously they are taking the Gini to be a proxy for things that individuals perceive directly.
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@KirkegaardEmil The steelman would be the more inequality, the more people become hopeless and feel they have no choice other than to resort to crime.
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These inequality studies were always a bit funny. Do they think that the people considering doing crime pause to consult the current Gini coefficient to see if they should go through with it?
Charlie Smirkley@charliesmirkley
The inequality causes crime narrative is activist science. 43 studies. 1,341 estimates. Half the data never published. Corrected effect: near zero. Inequality doesn’t drive crime.
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@tsundokkuma @FangYi11101 I think you'd be surprised how often students misunderstand this.
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A subtle point, but this isn’t how the central limit theorem works. You need to sum the random variables to approximate a normal, all he’s doing is getting a histogram of a triangular distribution.
Dudes Posting Their W’s@DudespostingWs
He rolled dice 10,000 times over 17+ hours and documented the results, an almost perfect normal distribution.
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3rdMoment 🏛️ retweetledi
A century after the creation of public high schools, who has command of basic scientific knowledge in the US?
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@anup_malani In this case finding a small/zero effect should be about as interesting as finding a large effect. (Of course finding both complicates things...)
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My takeaways:
1/ Really impressed Angrist & Lavy revisited their own work even though the new data and analysis cut against their prior paper
2/ I should have found this 2020 paper before posting my original thread!
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I just learned that @metrics52, Lavy, Shany & @jetson_econ revisited this work and found no class size effect in subsequent years.
sites.bu.edu/jetson/files/2…
Anup Malani@anup_malani
Israel limits class size to 40 students, based on a rule written by Rabbi Maimonides in 1170 AD. A 41st student splits the class in two. @metrics52 and Lavy realized: that discontinuity gave them a near-perfect instrument to test the impact of smaller classes on test scores.
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@eduleadership But if the whole team uses the bat, and the team batting average goes up by around 0.010, that's around 8 extra wins for the team....more than signing a superstar player.
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@eduleadership OK let's say you have a new baseball bat that raises batting average by ten ponts (0.010 increase).
If you try to measure each individual player's batting average over the first 20 games, say, you'd say 0.010 of batting average is "noise"....it's less than one extra hit! (1/2)
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This is truly a terrible tweet, not least because many will find it persuasive.
The level of measurement error ("noise") tells us little or nothing about the importance of a true average effect. In education, 0.15sd is big.
Justin Baeder, PhD@eduleadership
0.15 SD on a course final exam means nothing. Noise.
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@MostlyMonkey People really don't understand what the central limit theorem says....
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That's not how the central limit theorem works
Dudes Posting Their W’s@DudespostingWs
He rolled dice 10,000 times over 17+ hours and documented the results, an almost perfect normal distribution.
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@eduleadership The measurement error is not what matters for evaluating the size/importance of the average treatment effect. You really don't seem to get this.
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@3rdMoment Do you think the measurement error of this test is zero questions?
Because if it’s not, it’s absolutely fair to call an effect equivalent to roughly one exam question “noise.”
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@eduleadership Whether you call an effect of this size "large" or "small" is a matter of judgement, but comparing it to "noise" is not a valid way to do this.
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@3rdMoment This sample was 770 students. That’s plenty. I’m sure this experiment could be repeated across more tests to see if the effect is bigger or smaller. But we would probably just get further confirmation that the effect is very small.
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@eduleadership That doesn't matter! You are very confused.
The reason we want a large sample is to average out the noise and find the signal. Lots of noise means we need a bigger sample, but it doesn't make the signal any more or less important.
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@3rdMoment No, because it’s within the range of random noise.
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