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4drant
9.2K posts
4drant
@4drant
Tech Investor. everyone and everything here is a joke!
Mars Katılım Aralık 2019
1.5K Takip Edilen2K Takipçiler
This chart is most certainly directionally and logically wrong. It predicts DRAM price won’t decline
Eugene Ng@EugeneNg
JPM continues to forecast that YoY changes in memory DRAM and NAND ASPs will begin to decelerate rapidly from the end of 2026/early 2027. While the forecasts (of when and how much) are most likely to be precisely wrong, they should be directionally correct. Important for those who think memory is not cyclical, and is different this time round. Interesting to watch how this plays out.
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Just so we’re keeping track.
TEAM round tripped -50% then +100% since early Feb and revenue estimates for 2027 have been basically unchanged.
👍
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Can someone please explain to me the advantages and disadvantages (with dollar calculations attached) for putting data centres in space?
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@dopamine_uptake @JerryCap He did indeed
Much more to go though, it was like trustpilot at 60-70p
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Just in case people are wondering about my track record with European equities:
$RPI: $280 -> $800 (agentic AI hardware demand thesis).
$LPK: ~$6, thesis at $13 -> $24.2 (glass cores substrates close monopoly)
$SOI: $44 -> $181 (silicon photonics, monopoly over substrates)
$SIVE: $4 -> $71 (CPO, critical chokepoints over lasers).
$IQE: $12 -> $47 (latent epiwafer capacity, information discovery around downstream photonics companies).
$ALRIB: $5 -> $15 (duopoly, synthesis around quantum buyers with photonics growth verticals).
And now $XFAB at $9.
I’m not always right.
But every single one of my European longs thesis have been validated so far by either earnings, investments (eg. $MTSI in IQE) or market returns.
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GIF
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@4drant Gavin dumping his entire $P position in Q1 probably wasn't a good sign
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Tbf, long $DELL short $NVDA has been a helluva trade YTD so I get the whole NVDA funding short thing
The AI Investor@The_AI_Investor
Do people realize Dell AI racks and servers use mostly NVDA, right?
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@teortaxesTex Pricing … v4 is significantly cheaper at similar performance
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Step 3.7 is generally neck and neck with V4-Flash (which is underappreciated as a powerful agent), I think they targeted it. But it goes to show that vision is a must now. V4.1V can't come soon enough.
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@4drant I really like the cowork harness tho, for what I have to do most days.
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Despite supposedly increasing them, I'm now blowing through my Claude limits every day in 25% of the time on the same tasks that used to be well under in the 5h window.
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@4drant I hear server sales are growing quite quickly for some reason.
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Wealth transfer from UK to USA begins in another 1.5 hours
$iqe
4drant@4drant
3 things new today vs 1 month ago trading update with macom release - visibility beyond 2026 - multiple tier 1 InP wins - ebitda hsd-ldd % $iqe
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Note on Musashi $7220.T tonight. Forgot about this one. Easy to explain. 1 hr time limit cause busy.
I have datasheets. Its really obvious lol. Kicking myself for forgetting this for big SiC/GaN post earlier this month.
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@evrgn11112231 @joinyellowbrick MSFT core software is silly cheap too
It’s shyte software, but not one’s gonna rip it out
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@joinyellowbrick I have no idea about "flows" (not something I think about) - but nothing else is nearly as cheap, esp for the quality and growth. That I'm aware of at least.
$ADBE has a lower GAAP multiple but lower quality, lower growth and more AI and terminal value risk imo.
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Lot of pushback so far that merely amounts to explanations for why the stock drew down 65% over the last year (and why it's the worst performing stock YTD in the S&P 500) - without the self awareness.
People - these were bearish arguments to make a year ago, not today. The multiple just got nuked.
At 15x earnings TODAY - you need to explain why the business is going to implode from here, instead of continuing to grow DD - like it has been.
$INTU
Evergreen@evrgn11112231
I bought $INTU Seems extremely cheap at mid teens economic earnings, high quality, growing DD, and likely an AI beneficiary. Quickbooks is 60% of revenue, and growing twice the rate of Turbotax (which itself is still growing Mid to HSD). What am I missing?
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