Waterport

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Waterport

Waterport

@WaterportCap

private equity investor running a long/short PA on the side, hunting the best businesses in the world

Katılım Şubat 2025
613 Takip Edilen356 Takipçiler
Waterport
Waterport@WaterportCap·
Slack is an AI winner $CRM
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Evergreen
Evergreen@evrgn11112231·
I bought $INTU Seems extremely cheap at mid teens economic earnings, high quality, growing DD, and likely an AI beneficiary. Quickbooks is 60% of revenue, and growing twice the rate of Turbotax (which itself is still growing Mid to HSD). What am I missing?
Evergreen@evrgn11112231

Gone for a few days and… Did I resurrect / provoke @GavinSBaker who is now spitting fire and roasting people in comments all over the place on here lmao 🔥🔥 lol at people freaking out about (or downplaying) $META ’s $RDDT knock off… this is just the beginning (infinite apps thesis inning one)… for those saying “threads was a failure” don’t look now but it’s not? #5 most downloaded app in app store today. The Forum app from Meta is cool but the best part is the “ask” tab which is an ai chatbot that specifically only pulls from the Groups community and can be / likely will be a very interesting standalone chatbot app (AI answers but only summarizing and linking answers given by real people over decades). the Forum app should default to grant you the option for posting under an avatar though vs your real name if the goal is to drive a real engagement step change (same thing should be upfront in threads). re Meta layoffs - the handwringing and entitlement by people on here in the tech ecosystem about this is quite insane… very out of touch group. separately but related - under discussed yet but very interesting phenomenon is Meta’s decision to move 7k engineers to exclusively focus now on AI products and data labeling. Not only are we going to have a workforce greater than the size of anthropic and OAI exclusively focused on building capabilities at scale that no one else really can, but will also get a lot of cheap / forced attrition from toxic employees who think they are too good for this kind of work. Google i/o was super lame and confirmed my views on their inability to ship and that the race to win in consumer / agentic AI has been won (by meta) before it even started I bought a software stock this week. anyone who has followed me on here or known me irl should know how big of a deal that is as i’ve long hated the space broadly. put me officially in the software bull camp now though as my exposure is now larger than my semi exposure. any guess what i bought? will tell in time have work to do first. what else did i miss?

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Waterport
Waterport@WaterportCap·
Codex 🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯
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Waterport
Waterport@WaterportCap·
Spent all night building my first web app and suddenly feel like we are in a race for our lives
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Waterport
Waterport@WaterportCap·
@JerryCap Isn’t VAS just the pricing lever on the core network in disguise
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Waterport
Waterport@WaterportCap·
$MANH guiding to msd revenue growth with eps flat/down and below consensus. Not sure how this hangs on to a mid 30s p/e multiple. More like 50x w/o sbc added back. Woof
Waterport tweet media
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Waterport
Waterport@WaterportCap·
$AGYS short finally working. Still >40x earnings.
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Waterport
Waterport@WaterportCap·
@4drant Haven’t been through the call yet but no not really
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4drant
4drant@4drant·
@WaterportCap You buy their story that this is pushed to the right and not lost?
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Waterport
Waterport@WaterportCap·
$ROP organic growth trending toward low single digits
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Waterport
Waterport@WaterportCap·
$GPN trading for <5x 2027 EPS is blowing my mind
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RAMco Capital
RAMco Capital@RAMCOCAPITAL·
$vrsk finessed exactlogix here. Honestly, probably a great long term sign. Vrsk negotiated a deal agreement that provided for 1) no termination payment and 2) a 5 month timeline, essentially ensuring if they had any regulatory delay Vrsk could walk away without penalty. Stunning
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Waterport
Waterport@WaterportCap·
@WaterworldCapi1 Mortgage volumes recover on rate cuts plus policy intervention Payment processors rerate on return of capital PMI > 50 and rails/transports, industrial gas, waste mgmt rally Fixed income trading venues recover on fpm stabilization
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Admiral Waterworld
Admiral Waterworld@WaterworldCapi1·
Someone give me some good themes other than AI for next year.
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Waterport
Waterport@WaterportCap·
@PVofFCF Yes you may be right on the chart. But estimates are moving higher no? A couple ss notes I looked at last week had revised fy27 eps up ~10%
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Waterport
Waterport@WaterportCap·
$FICO EPS estimates moving higher again
Waterport tweet media
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Waterport
Waterport@WaterportCap·
How much lower until the $CSU crowd starts doing a sum of the parts and realizes the parts are worth 6x ebitda
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Waterport
Waterport@WaterportCap·
30 year reverse dcf analysis of $NVDA implying fcf grows to ~$900B in 2055. Say 50% fcf margins to keep it simple = $1.8T of revenue. Assume compute is 50% of total data center capex spend, and NVDA captures 50% of compute market share = ~$7T of implied annual dc capex
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Waterport
Waterport@WaterportCap·
$NVDA data center revenue growth and consensus estimates. Kind of suspicious.
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Waterport
Waterport@WaterportCap·
Crazy tape. Closed out shorts in $PAYC $SPSC $ORCL and $XYZ
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