TravisForReal

Why is Saylor saying he’s going to sell $BTC? You should see this like Trump / Bessent tweeting about negotiations at strategic times to liquidate oil futures traders. It’s jawboning. You have to start reorienting your entire understanding of $MSTR around $STRC, which will drive the entire bitcoin market within 2-3 years. Buyers of $STRC are (digital) creditors. In exchange for an 11.5% dividend, they are lending capital to management to buy $BTC on behalf of the $MSTR shareholders. Buyers of the $MSTR are debtors. They are taking the capital from $STRC lenders and buying bitcoin with it, betting that $BTC will appreciate more than 11.5% and they come out ahead. But here’s the rub: by committing NEVER to sell $BTC, this leaves only one mechanism for the debtor ($MSTR) to pay the creditor ($STRC), which is to sell $MSTR. Now in theory even selling $MSTR should be accretive, as long as the market values the common stock above a certain mNAV, which, given the performance of $STRC, it SHOULD. But $MSTR doesn’t trade at a fixed exchange rate to $BTC, and, with $STRC driving $BTC up and putting dilution pressure on $MSTR, a short seller can fairly reliably go short $MSTR / long $BTC, artificially driving down mNAV, and suppressing the $MSTR / $BTC exchange rate. This forces management sell $MSTR to cover $STRC dividends even when this results in dilution to $MSTR shareholders. Until recently this has been de minimis compared to the amount of $BTC $STRC is acquiring for the shareholders. BUT As $STRC scales and $MSTR adds another, say 500,000 $BTC, which is achievable in the relatively near term, two things happen: 1) the scale of the dividend obligation grows relative to the market cap is the company, putting downward pressure on $MSTR / $BTC. 2) the forward expectation for $BTC yield diminishes compared to current holdings, also putting downward pressure on $MSTR / $BTC. Now, the net function of the system is still very accretive to the common stock, but less so than if the short pressure artificially driving down $MSTR relative to $BTC could not reliably do so. Saylor is currently giving this trade a free lunch by saying, “we’ll never sell $BTC.” It’s like Trump saying “no Iran deal.” Saylor needs the market to think, at all times, that there “might be, maybe, a very promising deal.” It’s less about Saylor selling $BTC than the market knowing he can and would, if the $MSTR / $BTC ratio were to drop artificially low. In that scenario, he could sell some $BTC to pay $STRC dividends issue new $STRC to buy back $MSTR common stock. This would put direct upward pressure on the $MSTR / $BTC ratio closer to its “natural” market mNAV, squeezing short sellers out of their positions and returning equity capital to common stock shareholders in the process. It’s less important that he does this regularly than that the market believes he can and will do this to defend the mNAV, which makes the “Chanos trade” riskier and less profitable, like Trump’s jawboning liquidates oil futures traders. This is about adding a lever he can pull to raise and deploy capital, even if he rarely or never pulls it.

Just got off a zoom call catching up with a friend of mine from the Boy Scouts who is now a bank manager. Told him that inflation has to be constant because loans create new money with interest and that interest has to be paid off somehow. explained that even the bank of england has written papers describing exactly this process. they all admit this openly. He was literally stunned and almost fell out of his chair. "You mean money is lent into existence? every time a customer draws a line of credit they just print it? and the money supply is constantly increasing?!" this is a guy who is a math major and works at a major bank. even the people running the system don't know how it works.

BITCOIN HAS BOTTOMED EXACTLY 23 MONTHS AFTER THE ATH IN EVERY CYCLE. WE ARE SITTING AT MONTH 23 RIGHT NOW. THIS PATTERN HAS NEVER FAILED 🚀

BREAKING: ADM Paparo, 4-star Admiral and Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, just testified before the Senate that “Bitcoin shows incredible potential” as a tool for U.S. national security. Watch the full exchange: