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I will gradually populate this with R code to run simulations of various RCT scenarios. Posting link here so I can pin this tweet.
github.com/aalthous/RCT-S…
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Andrew Althouse
30.3K posts
Andrew Althouse
@ADAlthousePhD
@TartanFB (2004-07); Statistician @Medtronic; statistical methods for clinical trials, kettlebells, deadlifts, pull-ups, food, whiskey & craft beer
Katılım Temmuz 2017
2.7K Takip Edilen10.9K Takipçiler
@lior_eth @84_wintermute To some extent, this probably worked - I tuned in for the portion of the event while the deadlift was on, even though I had no interest in anything else about EG. But I wanted to see if Thor would get 515, the “enhanced games” bit just had nothing to do with it.
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@lior_eth @84_wintermute IMO the deadlift competition was basically just an add-on to draw a different set of eyeballs to the event; since strongman isn’t a tested sport, everyone knows that Thor and Mitch weren’t previously “natural” anyway.
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What the Enhanced Games have shown in real time:
1) everyone is already enhanced. Thor couldn’t even improve his deadlift by >1%. Either steroids are useless or he was already juiced to the gills.
2) enhancement without star athletes is kind of sad? “This 44 year old swimmer almost beat his personal best from 10 years ago!” is not a great look lol.
3) people are drawn to sports, particularly when the idea of performance & enhancement is not taboo.
For the first event, I think it’s going well. Will be cool to see this thing grow.
Enhanced Games@enhanced_games
Watch the Enhanced Games LIVE: x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
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@wowtht @nickmmark The one exception that I know of is the 2 strongmen who competed in the deadlift and everyone already knows that (since strongman is an untested sport) they’re likely not on a much different routine than their usual “supplements” anyway
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@wowtht @nickmmark This isn’t some controlled experiment where they took the actual best current athletes in the world and had some more “enhanced” than others. In most of the events it’s retired athletes or people who already got popped for doping so this was the best path to another payday
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Pretty surprised by how little “enhancedl adds to the world’s best performance.
Only one world record set tonight (50m freestyle).
Two possibilities for why:
- steroids and other meds add fairly little to top athlete performance
- everyone is already so “enhanced”
Enhanced Games@enhanced_games
Watch the Enhanced Games LIVE: x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
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@gavinobrown @MattGlassman312 My favorite spin on this is a home run instead of a single. So a guy that bats .200 with no walks, no baserunning value, no other contribution but ~125 homers a year. I assume this guy would be one of the most valuable players ever.
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@MattGlassman312 Here’s another one: a player who always hits a single and then strikes out four times in a row. Every 5 PA the pattern repeats. League average defense at any position.
Worth a roster spot?
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The zero variance is more important than the ERA. You win every game you lead by N+1 runs with N innings remaining. Empirical question how often such leads are lost, but at a minimum seems +EV to use a roster spot to carry in playoffs. And *tons* of second-order positive effects.
LombardIsKing@LombardIsKing_
Weird question. Realistically how valuable would a pitcher who only and ever gives up one run each inning he pitches would be? Like he gives up a homer to the first batter then 1-2-3 rest of the inning
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@Brien_Jackson And this is true *even for many people that love making and/or eating epic and indulgent flavor experience meals*
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Yes this is an undercurrent to the $28 lunch stuff too: A lot of these people seem to genuinely not get that for people with a healthy relationship with food (and dopamine) every single meal is not an epic and indulgent flavor experience. It's tasty food that gives you calories.
Radioactive@cvprbd9kq2
Gluttony is more than just overeating. It is a disordered attachment to the pleasures of food and drink. We have many, many gluttons.
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I am willing to accept that there is in fact a small subset of people for whom there are legitimate excuses. But the vast majority of “DoorDash-should-be-a-human-right” types are just babies
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Not just to boomers, but also millennials who figured out basic life skills like “how to cook a few meals that offer some reasonable combination of price, taste, effort, and nutritional value”
Put me firmly in camp “you people can’t do anything” on this round of discourse
USS.Patriot@USSMogger
@CryptoMikli to boomers the problem is “youre spending too much on lunch” instead of asking why the restaurants are charging $28 for lunch in the first place
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@CartoonsHateHer It’s a wonder that we can survive on such “prison food” really
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@CartoonsHateHer Not only 20-somethings with roommates! Even (gulp) parents with young children!
I make pasta with sauce and some meatballs (enough to feed 2 parents and 2 kids with 2 leftover portions that I can eat for lunch) for $15 and that’s buying *expensive* versions of each ingredient
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I'm late to the party on this but the DoorDash discourse kind of reminds me of "nobody can have kids anymore" discourse because our idea of what "cooking" entails is like, a top privileged expert chef you saw on NYT or social media and not what cooking really is.
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One of the most relatable and important parenting takes I’ve ever seen
Clara Bow@uxorious100
It’s embarrassing to admit that for me, the most annoying part of raising kids is: if I want my kids to be curious & independent, then I need to say yes enthusiastically when they ask if they can make eggs and I know I’m about to have the most annoying 15 minutes in human history
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Increasingly convinced based on my TL that this is the single greatest tweet of our time
Rep. Jack Kimble@RepJackKimble
Just a friendly warning. We don’t even make $200k per year in Congress despite working nearly 140 days. If we aren’t properly compensated, a lot of us will go to the private sector and you will be left with some real idiots in Congress.
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@ExplainingPhils Can someone who knows how to do fancy stuff with various WAR and VORP calculate the value of a DH that bats .250 with one home run and three strikeouts every four plate appearances and nothing else?
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@ExplainingPhils I suspect that a player who went 1-4 in every game with 1 home run and three strikeouts and zero other contributions - suppose he’s a DH and therefore never plays the field and never runs the bases since he only hits home runs - would be the most valuable player of all time?
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“The Yankees would have 0 rings if they didn’t win 4 games in 27 different World Series’” this is up there for the dumbest shit I have ever seen on this app. Congratulations
Hugh Jupside@HughJupside
Schwarber career in Plate Appearances when he does NOT homer: .168 BA .518 OPS Now add: Horrifying Defense / No Defense (DH) In other words, Schwarber - when he doesn't HR - is the worst player in MLB history. Let's say he gets to 500 HR. 500 bombs is obviously Huge. Is it enough to make Schwarber HOF worthy, given his MASSIVE deficiencies in EVERY other part of the game? The answer, emphatically is NO.
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@RealBirdLawyer They’re calling it the greatest tweet of all time
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I’ve seen a shocking number of you get got by this one.
Rep. Jack Kimble@RepJackKimble
Just a friendly warning. We don’t even make $200k per year in Congress despite working nearly 140 days. If we aren’t properly compensated, a lot of us will go to the private sector and you will be left with some real idiots in Congress.
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@chernobylurmom @DK_Able The song exploder episode with Rzeznik about “Iris” is just incredible
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@DK_Able Not really. It’s because some bands really were better. I don’t mind any of the first 3 bands you named and they all made some pretty good music, but they’re not as good nor influential as the other 3. The one potential caveat to that is Johnny Rzeznik was a hell of a song writer
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Unpopular opinion:
The “greatest bands” conversation has been gatekept by a biased industry and there is no logical reason why 3 Doors Down, Goo Goo Dolls, and Matchbox Twenty should not be considered as good as or better than Nirvana, Pearl Jam, and The Rolling Stones.
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@Bengal_DPT I don’t really know what do to about this but it’s not surprising to me that some or most folks wouldn’t really know (and in some cases might be scared to try on their own because of worries like “my insurance denied it because they said I didn’t get a referral first”)
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@Bengal_DPT The inciting event for me to get a primary care doc (who I’ve been very happy with since, despite only going a few times) was noticing an inguinal hernia and naively (and probably incorrectly?) assuming that I couldn’t see a surgeon unless I had a referral
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How awesome would it be if you could just avoid all this and go right to a PT
Oh wait you can!
The Frugal Mogul 🏡@realfrugalmogul
Me: Hi Doc, I’d like a referral to PT please Dr: What’s the matter? Me: My shoulder has been bothering me for fours months, I need PT Dr: Can you come in so I can take a look? Me: I’d rather go to PT Dr: I have an opening in three weeks, come in please *Three weeks later* Dr: You need PT
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