Adam

“In the end, wars are contests of endurance. And in modern conflict, endurance is not abstract — it is measured in production lines, supply chains, and the capacity to regenerate.” Yes, now explain to me how we can win this thing.

The US military is continuing to deploy troops to the Middle East for 'potential operations', with 'thousands of sailors and Marines' making their way to the region, according to Wall Street Journal.

Grain's oversupply continues to grow. Macro tourists get burned big time with their long wheat, long corn bets based on the idea that grain prices have to catch-up with the diesel & fertilizer rally. Global ending stocks got raised further in yesterday's USDA report. This was driven by both corn and wheat. In the US numbers were unchanged. Oilseeds are less bearish with global stocks getting lowered slightly. We are in that time of the year though were the focus starts to shift from the supply & demand of the old year to the new year. Farmers used the rally to sell their big old crop stocks (to funds) and now the big question is: Do farmers get burned by selling too early when the annual weather market is just ahead? Or is it the macro tourists this time that, an historic very rare occasion, are left as the bag holder learning the hard way that grain markets are not a meme stock that goes up parabolic?

Ya we’re planning a ground invasion. 💔

The Strait of Hormuz could reopen within the next two months, -White House advisor Hassett.

Case in point: More than 70 transport planes landed in the Middle East within 24 hours of the ceasefire taking effect. That scale suggests possible preparation for a ground offensive, solidifying suspicion that Trump is using the truce to regroup:

I have just spoken with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. I expressed France’s full solidarity in the face of the indiscriminate strikes carried out by Israel in Lebanon today, which resulted in a very high number of civilian casualties. We condemn these strikes in the strongest possible terms. They pose a direct threat to the sustainability of the ceasefire that has just been reached. Lebanon must be fully covered by it. I reiterated the need to preserve Lebanon’s territorial integrity and France’s determination to support the efforts of the Lebanese authorities to uphold the country’s sovereignty and implement the Hezbollah disarmament plan.