Alex Yauk

@KylePorterNS @CharlieGolf_Co Rory wins despite 3 doubles

Big thanks to @CharlieGolf_Co for sponsoring the newsletter and pod this week. We’ll give away 3 of their bags this weekend. Eligibility = be subscribed to the newsletter and comment below about what’s going to happen over the final 36 holes. Be as irresponsible as you want.

@KylePorterNS @Garmin 24365

We're giving away a @Garmin rangefinder in tonight's/tomorrow morning's newsletter. To win it, you have to be subscribed to the newsletter and guess how many steps I throughout Thursday. I'll post my total late tonight. Closest guess wins the rangefinder. Good luck.

@KylePorterNS @OGIO Viktor! Because of the girl

Today's Normal Sport giveaway: Two @OGIO golf travel bags. Eligibility = subscribe to our free newsletter and comment below with who you think is going to win and why. Don't even have to be right. Just have to comment. We'll draw two later this evening.

@OilandGibbs Ah okay, so these are effectively non-reallocated SREs?

@APYauk No, numerator is set as of 3/27. EPA finalized % standards based off available 2023-24 and forecast for 2025 (2022-24 average).

2026 RIN demand WILL fall a couple hundred million RINs as a result👇 The decision is focused on 2024 decisions, where EPA originally denied Krotz Spring (DK) and Parco (DINO) since they ran over 75kbd of crude in 2023. Todays ruling means EPA's reasoning was improper. Rather, the 75kbd threshold only applies to the year that you're petitioning. Thus, Krotz and Parco are expected to receive some level of exemptions (50% or 100%) for 2024. Note 2024 vintage RINs are still eligible thru 2025 compliance that was just extended to Sept. 1. Now this will also impact 2025 decisions as Delek's El Dorado plant ran over 75kbd in 2024. This ruling indicate it is eligible in 2025. 2026-27 SRE amounts shouldn't be impacted as plants knew as of August to run sub 75kbd (2026 baselines assumed you did for 2025). However, 2023-25 SRE reallocation has been set as of 3/27 based on the expectation these would be denied. Therefore these will result in a slightly higher RIN bank to start 2026 and the EPA can no longer adjust for it. Not incredibly material though for 2027 outlook.

@KylePorterNS The grass

Today, I'm giving away $500 in merch from any 2026 major championship you want. All you have to do is subscribe to our free newsletter (link in bio and below) and comment here with what you're most looking forward to about this week. Be as specific and as ridiculous as possible.

@fuelinggood Curious what data series RFA is using here. When I calculate the blend using Refinery and Blender Net Input of Fuel Ethanol and Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline, I get a blend of 10.15% in Oct 2025.

From RFA: U.S. Ethanol Blend Rate Tops 11% in October - 12-month average blend rate, which reflects longer-term trends, also hit a record of 10.48% the same month. More E15 and E85 being sold. Need year-round E15 soon!

@Zerosumgame33 Can you elaborate on your comment around the 45z? Why aren't producers getting that in 2025?

$CLMT Looking @ spot gross margins for Renewable Diesel (RD) & Biodiesel (BD)... RD = +$0.71/gal = Yuck BD = -$0.15/gal = Super Yuck Domestic Biodiesel is the marginal supply to meet 2026 RVO, where margins will go to incentivize them to run. Today, B100 biodiesel price is $3.80/gal. into Chicago. Starting Jan 1, Biodiesel gets $0.60/gal 45z credit. Biodiesel also gets 0.3 kg of glycerin byproduct for every 1 gallon of biodiesel produced. November spot price for North America glycerin was $0.95/kg, so Biodiesel gets $0.29/gal cash value for glycerin. Add this to the P&L. Biodiesel players w/o pre-treaters run more expensive "RBD" soybean oil. Right now that spread to crude soybean oil is $0.03/lb, putting RBD oil at $0.55/lb. It takes 7.7 lbs of RBD oil to make a gallon of Biodiesel, so $4.24 per gallon to run feedstock. It also takes 0.25 gallons of Methanol to make 1 gallon of Biodiesel. Spot Methanol prices in North America are $2.41/gal, so it takes $0.60/gal of methanol to make 1 gallon of biodiesel. Whats left is negative $0.15/gal of gross profit after credits, net of feedstock and variable cost to produce a gallon of biodiesel. Further, there is about $0.50/gal of fixed overhead to run a small biodiesel plant. So, today, net profit is negative $0.65/gal. after all fixed and variable expenses. Implication for Renewable Diesel is the following: Today's $0.71/gal RD margin jumps to $1.37/gal if biodiesel covers its cost and breakeven. Implied D4 RIN would therefore spike to $1.50 to close the gap (calculated as spot RIN price of $1.09 plus the $0.65/gal shortfall divided by 1.6) But, if biodiesel actually runs to make money, call it $0.25/gal profit, then RD margin would be closer to $1.60/gal, and Implied D4 RIN would need to be $1.65 to close the gap To meet 2026 RVO, biodiesel needs to run > 80% utilization... which is a level biodiesel has made decent money before in the past. For context, In 2025, biodiesel utilization has averaged 57% thru the month of October. For MRL, who in Q2 of next year will be running > 80% SAF yields, would see economics that look like $1.60 renewable diesel margin + $1.30 SAF premium which is contractually indexed to spot underlying RD. MRL runs $0.25/gal of fixed feedstock transportation cost, $0.40/gal of fixed site opex, and $0.10/gal of fixed SG&A. SAF EBITDA would therefore be $1.60 + $1.30 - $0.25 - $0.40 - $0.10 = $2.15/gal. ....on 175M+ gallons. S&D Economics 101. Do da math, the street is asleep.

@jantenbensel @ScottIrwinUI My point on the 10% specifically relates to the RFS. If E15 truly is a better, cheaper product why would it need to be mandated? For years, the conventional mandate has been above a 10% blend, and it has been met with BBDs rather than higher ethanol blending.

@APYauk @ScottIrwinUI What is your logic for the 10% why not displace more automatics and save more money for the consumer?

For some reason, WSJ editorial writers refuse to understand well-documented facts about biofuel economics. In the simplest possible terms, corn ethanol reduces the price of gasoline, and soybean oil biodiesel/renewable diesel raises the price of diesel.

@KylePorterNS @OGIO 34.6

Some extremely close guesses but no winner yet. I will say, the weight is over 30 but under 35 and the second decimal is a 0. So the answer is 3X.X0 Good luck. And thank you @OGIO.

@KylePorterNS @OGIO 34.68

🚨 Giveaway time! I have an extra @OGIO bag exactly like this one that I'll give away to the first person who ... 1. Is subscribed to the Normal Sport newsletter (free, link in bio) AND 2. Guesses the exact weight (lbs.) of this bag with my clubs in it (2 decimal places).

We're giving away ~$7,000 worth of gear (see below) this week to our newsletter subscribers. Let's have some additional fun with that. If this tweet gets at least 500 retweets today, I'll pick someone who retweets it (*and is also subscribed to our newsletter*) and send them a box of $500 worth of merch from any golf tournament they want this year. The steps to win. 1. Retweet this. 2. Be subscribed to our newsletter at the time I pick your name (end of Tuesday). Newsletter link in my bio. Good luck.

@KylePorterNS Piano music

New day, new giveaways. Six of them actually. We'll hand out most of the gear below on our newsletter over the next four days, but I'll randomly give away one of each of these products on Twitter on Wednesday evening at 10 p.m. (*you also have to be subscribed to our newsletter at the time I pick your name*). How to win. 1. Comment on this tweet with what you're most looking forward to about this year's event. 2. Be subscribed to the Normal Sport newsletter (link in bio) by 10 p.m. Good luck!

@okmesonet From a farm near Selman, OK during the ‘71 blizzard

54 years ago, Buffalo, OK, woke up to 3 feet of snow and drifts up to 20 feet deep following the granddaddy of all Oklahoma blizzards, from Feb. 20-22, 1971. Much of northwestern Oklahoma was paralyzed for weeks. #okwx #okmesonet

@dunnde So likely another credit build, but we just won't know for sure until 4th quarter data is released?

friendly reminder to anyone viewing OR CFP data from Q3 the Q3 Base EVs plus Q1, Q2, Q3 incremental EV charging are not in there, thats probably something like 55 + 30, 30, 30k credits missing so 145k cumulative #LCFS

@biofuelslaw It’s not sustainable if it requires a government mandate.

I have had many conversations about #SAF over the past few weeks, and it’s clearer than ever that mandating SAF in the US is the only way the industry can meet its goals. Has anyone ever introduced legislation to revise the RFS to mandate SAF? Perhaps now’s the time. ✈️ #biofuels

@ScottIrwinUI Thanks for the insight. Great work on this as always!

@APYauk Great question. My personal view is that the market is also calibrating the odds that the BTC is reinstated retroactively either as a replacement for 45Z or simultaneously with 45Z. If BTC were to return it would be bearish D4 RINs price all else constant.

1. Back in May 2023, we introduced idea of the "RIN cliff."  This is the name we came up with for the scenario when the market produced too many of the tradeable RIN credits used to demonstrate compliance with the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS).  Enough time has passed to assess whether we were right or not. farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/01/revisi…

@ScottIrwinUI With the BTC expiring, wouldn't theory dictate that the RIN would need to appreciate by $1 divided by 1.6 (RINs/gal) less expected 45z credit value to keep producers whole? Any thoughts on why we haven't seen this?

8. The good news is that there is some light at the end of the tunnel for BBD producers. The demand ceiling jumped to 5 BG in 2025 and supply is much better balanced now with this level of demand. Still, there is massive uncertainty as we head into 2025 on the policy front. 45Z or BTC, or both? New RVOs for 2026-2028? Trade? Buckle up.

I barely know what Jay from @DownToDunk looks like, but everytime I watch Vasilije Micic play I think it has to be him.