Andreas Schulz

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Andreas Schulz

Andreas Schulz

@ASchulz888

Curious about everything, and markets in particular. No financial advice here - please do your own due diligence. May trade securities mentioned any time.

Katılım Ekim 2017
542 Takip Edilen1.3K Takipçiler
Andreas Schulz
Andreas Schulz@ASchulz888·
@nickgerli1 Do you have an estimate of how much geographic mix and square footage changes affected this metric? Put differently - how would this chart look for "same house, same location?"
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Nick Gerli
Nick Gerli@nickgerli1·
Lennar, America's 2nd largest builder, has cut prices 24% from peak. Their price on new deliveries hit $491k in 2022. But they've cut by over $110k since then, through price reductions and mortgage buydowns. The result is a $374k net price in 2026, down -8% YoY and -24% from peak. This is the cheapest we've seen in a decade, even lower than the pre-pandemic norms. This is actually great news for homebuyers. Housing deflation is setting in, and Lennar is leading the charge for builders in returning affordability to buyers.
Nick Gerli tweet media
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Andreas Schulz
Andreas Schulz@ASchulz888·
As for the stocks, I am afraid I fall pretty close to the consensus. While $ABVX seems to be the most likely acquisition target of the bunch, I think there could actually be more upside in $NKTR and $VKTX. Both seem very cheaply priced relative to their large potential commercial opportunities. And while I am not shocked to see $GPCR come in last, it is not that implausible that BP might take a look here too. After all they are entering ph3 with an oral small molecule GLP-1, and slower titration seems to have at least ameliorated AEs. And at various times BPs have spoken about their preference for small molecule orals over peptides. No position, but I find it interesting.
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Andreas Schulz
Andreas Schulz@ASchulz888·
As for my vote, I have been and continue to be a big fan of $LMND, though apparently I am not alone in that. My vote right now would actually be $ZETA. I think the opportunity here seems both large, and widely under-appreciated.
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Andreas Schulz
Andreas Schulz@ASchulz888·
@bjmtweets Good luck with it. I need to think about it some more. It's not an unreasonable thesis, but $NVDA is a hell of a company to compete against. Either way - I hope it works out for you.
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Brian McCormick
Brian McCormick@bjmtweets·
@ASchulz888 We are already seeing the thesis play out vs when I started the investment last year. Since then, OpenAI and Meta have made significant commitments. All business and industry is dynamic. A good investment and thesis has a margin of safety to allow for that.
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Brian McCormick
Brian McCormick@bjmtweets·
Portfolio Update: Increased to 5 positions I like all of these bull cases. $GTLB is one of the few AI beneficiaries without the threat of supply glut or customer concentration and is reasonably insulated from a recession.
Brian McCormick tweet media
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Andreas Schulz
Andreas Schulz@ASchulz888·
I get your bigger picture point. The argument about $NVDA vs. $AMD might be more complicated though, especially after the Groq acquisition. The $NVDA stack has optimization opportunities across an entire datacenter that $AMD currently lacks. Doesn't mean $AMD won't do well anyway, but $NVDA is smart, fast, and aggressively plugging the holes in their strategy.
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Brian McCormick
Brian McCormick@bjmtweets·
@ASchulz888 FYI - Here is some more detail on AMD in specific for GPU vs Nvidia. Similar foundational points for other stocks I could go into. x.com/bjmtweets/stat…
Brian McCormick@bjmtweets

$AMD is actually on a favorable design path vs $NVDA. Nvidia pursued monolithic chip design instead of chiplets. This worked great as long as they could keep making the wafers bigger and TSM kept improving NM of chips. Yield may be worse this way, but efficiency and raw power is at its best. Which is why they are so attractive for training. However, TSM is at the theoretically physical limits of NM improvements (in fact, the smaller NM wafers are not even smaller now, it's just marketing where improvements are driven elsewhere). Nvidia's response is that since they can't make chips better with bigger or significantly improved wafers, they will start connecting duplicate dies together into one chip. The blackwell connects two duplicate dies together. They can continue this and connect 4 dies. But continuing on this trajectory to connect 8, 16, etc... is not a sustainable path. Whereas, $AMD is already a leader in chiplet design (connecting smaller purpose made chips together, not duplicates) and use of advanced packaging (adding height instead of width to a wafer) and using it to their advantage on memory. It also gives AMD better Total Cost of Ownership over Nvidia, and faster iteration speed of new chips, since they can use chiplet libraries to upgrade quicker over redesigning entirely new full wafers like Nvidia does for the most part. $AMD has already significantly narrowed the gap in their chips efficiency vs $NVDA, and is leading in multiple areas. Their biggest disadvantage is no true rack solution, which releases this summer, and will be used by OpenAi and Meta. New $AMD and $NVDA chips are now coming toward parity. With Nvidia's biggest lead being in interconnect speed. If $AMD can get a comparable solution, they could even take the lead... Or simply by iterating faster through chiplet release speed.

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Andreas Schulz
Andreas Schulz@ASchulz888·
@PCM_bio @jayabacus Thank you. I was struggling similarly, which is why I thought this poll might be informative. I will share my answer after the poll closes - don't want to bias the answer now. 😅
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Patients Capital Management LLC
@ASchulz888 @jayabacus Normally when polling with obesity names, it’s not a good Q, but right here right now, this is a very good Q I’d say $vktx but my $$ is not where my mouth is. Higher probability of 60 to 80% upside in $nktr and $abvx .. with more asymmetric upside in the obesity co’s
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Andreas Schulz
Andreas Schulz@ASchulz888·
In your opinion, between $ABVX, $GPCR, $NKTR, and $VKTX, which will perform best over the next year?
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Andreas Schulz
Andreas Schulz@ASchulz888·
@RebellioMarket Are you sure about these numbers? 120% CAGR for 19 years implies $1 turned into $3.2 million…
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Market Rebellion
Market Rebellion@RebellioMarket·
If Warren Buffett is truly the greatest investor of all time how do you explain these numbers? Michael Marcus: 120% CAGR over 10 years Richard Dennis: 120% CAGR for 19 years Bruce Kovner: 87% CAGR over a decade Ed Seykota: 60% CAGR for 30 years William O'Neil: 40% CAGR for 25 years Maybe the real question isn’t who’s the greatest it’s what strategy truly wins
Market Rebellion tweet media
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Andreas Schulz
Andreas Schulz@ASchulz888·
@ChrisMMillas Thanks for the comment. I'll share my answer after the poll closes. Don't want to bias the answer now... 😅
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Andreas Schulz
Andreas Schulz@ASchulz888·
In your opinion, between $AMZN, $LMND, $PATH, and $ZETA, which will perform best over the next year?
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Andreas Schulz
Andreas Schulz@ASchulz888·
@BarkInvesting I will post my answer when the poll closes, but for now I don't want to bias the answer... 😅
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Bark Investing
Bark Investing@BarkInvesting·
@ASchulz888 I think $zeta and $path are cheaper, so I think those to outperform.
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Andreas Schulz
Andreas Schulz@ASchulz888·
@AdamLowisz Without giving away any secret sauce, what kind of trading does your friend do (what products, time horizon, trading frequency)?
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Andreas Schulz
Andreas Schulz@ASchulz888·
Remember what $ZETA CEO @dsteinberg10000 had to day about $TTD on the 4Q25 earnings call? "And then in the acquisition RFPs, we're seeing companies, like the Trade Desk to continue to be challenged as we continue to take market share from them and others continue to take market share from them." Just saying...
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